Data Vault Reports
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx Positioning Accumulator – 22 July 2025
When there was no commitment of traders data, technical analysts looked for a workaround to infer overall position changes in the market. The analysis tests joint changes in a futures contract’s price and open interest to determine whether long or short positions were being added or whether long or short positions were covered. These outcomes are illustrated in Table 1 below.
To build our series, we test the conditions in Table 1 below and then qualify the change as one of the four outcomes. We then count the number of occurrences of each outcome in a lookback period to give the percentage of each outcome. The four outcomes over the lookback period always add up to 100%. The look-back period rolls over daily. Table 2 shows the price implications of the four outcomes. Tables 3 and 4 illustrate Open Interest, Volume and Price relations and Open Interest, respectively.
Onyx Positioning Report – 22 July 2025
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 21 Jul 2025
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. CTA positioning in Brent futures increased by 73% in the week ending 14 Jul, although positioning remains below zero at -1.8k lots. Positioning in WTI futures climbed by a significant 187% w/w, flipping from -2k lots to +1.9k lots in the week ending 14 Jul. In refined fuel, ICE LS gasoil and NYMEX heating oil recorded a 15% and 36% increase w/w, although RBOB futures recorded a 300% increase in this time from -2.4k lots to +4.8k lots.
Refinery Margins Report
– In the week ending 11 July, refinery margins declined slightly across all tenors, except for Q1’26 for Asian refineries, which increased by 0.13.
– On a month-on-month basis, all margins have increased, with M1 in Europe and the US showing the largest rises of 2.33 and 2.96, respectively.
– Despite M2 and M3 being slightly higher than M1 on the Asian refinery forward curve, the rest of the curve remains in contango. The higher M2/M3 margins are driven by stronger M2 levels across the cracks, with MOPJ, kerosene, gasoil, and 380 Dubai cracks priced higher over the past month. The M2 92 Dubai crack was priced higher on 11 July.
– The European refinery forward curve similarly showed a higher-priced M2, with prices further along the curve also elevated, as M9 through M12 traded above M8. Both M2 and Q4’25 saw higher prices across naphtha cracks.
– The US refinery forward curve is in contango from M1 through M7, but prices jump at M8 and remain higher than M7 through to M12.
Energy futures correlation with the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Weekly Oil Inventories Report
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx Positioning Accumulator – 15 July 2025
When there was no commitment of traders data, technical analysts looked for a workaround to infer overall position changes in the market. The analysis tests joint changes in a futures contract’s price and open interest to determine whether long or short positions were being added or whether long or short positions were covered. These outcomes are illustrated in Table 1 below.
To build our series, we test the conditions in Table 1 below and then qualify the change as one of the four outcomes. We then count the number of occurrences of each outcome in a lookback period to give the percentage of each outcome. The four outcomes over the lookback period always add up to 100%. The look-back period rolls over daily. Table 2 shows the price implications of the four outcomes. Tables 3 and 4 illustrate Open Interest, Volume and Price relations and Open Interest, respectively.
Onyx Positioning Report – 15 July 2025
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
OECD Oil Inventories held by industry
The report covers oil inventory data in the OECD held by industry in million barrels and days of forward demand, as provided by the International Energy Agency
Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 14 Jul 2025
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. CTA positioning in Brent futures increased by 73% in the week ending 14 Jul, although positioning remains below zero at -1.8k lots. Positioning in WTI futures climbed by a significant 187% w/w, flipping from -2k lots to +1.9k lots in the week ending 14 Jul. In refined fuel, ICE LS gasoil and NYMEX heating oil recorded a 15% and 36% increase w/w, although RBOB futures recorded a 300% increase in this time from -2.4k lots to +4.8k lots.
Refinery Margins Report
– In the week ending 11 July, refinery margins declined slightly across all tenors, except for Q1’26 for Asian refineries, which increased by 0.13.
– On a month-on-month basis, all margins have increased, with M1 in Europe and the US showing the largest rises of 2.33 and 2.96, respectively.
– Despite M2 and M3 being slightly higher than M1 on the Asian refinery forward curve, the rest of the curve remains in contango. The higher M2/M3 margins are driven by stronger M2 levels across the cracks, with MOPJ, kerosene, gasoil, and 380 Dubai cracks priced higher over the past month. The M2 92 Dubai crack was priced higher on 11 July.
– The European refinery forward curve similarly showed a higher-priced M2, with prices further along the curve also elevated, as M9 through M12 traded above M8. Both M2 and Q4’25 saw higher prices across naphtha cracks.
– The US refinery forward curve is in contango from M1 through M7, but prices jump at M8 and remain higher than M7 through to M12.
Bloomberg survey of crude oil price forecasts
This report compares and contrasts the Bloomberg survey of ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI forecast to their high/low range as well the forward curve
Energy futures correlation with the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
