M1 Brent futures has seen a weekly loss as IE week took place in London. There seemed to be little optimism in the overall picture for 2025 demand from gloomy London. The main themes were Trump, tariffs, and geopolitical risk, which were fairly predictable, unlike its primary component. Trump has turned his eye to his northern neighbours and continued to threaten Canadian oil with tariffs whilst demanding the building of the Keystone XL pipeline. Keystone has been a partisan issue for the past few presidents. It was meant to connect the increasing US oil production and oil from the Canadian oil sands to Gulf Coast refineries. The idea was to replace supply from Mexico and Venezuela. Proposed in 2008, it aimed to move 830kb/d by 2012. Obama blocked it over environmental concerns, and Trump revived it, but Biden cancelled it again on his first day in office in 2021, predictably offending Trump, who brought up its resurrection a bit on the 2024 trail. On the Russian and Ukrainian front, it seems peace is inching closer with positive statements from key leaders alongside the US and Ukraine, who have been negotiating an agreement on the development of Ukraine’s mineral resources. Zelenskyy is expected to travel to Washington DC tomorrow to sign the agreement, which is a step toward peace.
