May’25 Brent futures saw consistent strength in the week to 18 Mar,, increasing from a weekly low of $69.60/bbl on 12 Mar up to an intraday high of just under $72.10/bbl on 18 Mar. Several bullish factors impacted price action, including rising geopolitical risk in the Middle East and the instability of Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations. In line with this recent strength, Onyx’s weekly CFTC COT predictor anticipates speculative players could add to long positions in Brent, while decreasing their short positions for the week ending 18 Mar. Managed-by-money long positions are expected to increase by 13.1mb, or about +5.2% w/w. Meanwhile, speculative players are expected to decrease their short positions by 4.4mb (-4.3% w/w). Finally, prod/merc players are projected to add to both their long and short positions, by 46.6mb and 48.5mb, respectively.
