The May’25 Brent futures has recovered well from initial weakness this morning, trading down from $73.10/bbl at 0535 GMT down to $72.80/bbl at 0620 GMT, before strengthening to $73.30/bbl at 1040 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices remain supported as traders evaluate the impact of Russia-Ukraine negotiations and geopolitical risk in the Middle East. In the news today, following Russia-US talks regarding a potential ceasefire in the Black Sea on Monday, Ukrainian and US delegations are now scheduled to meet in Saudi Arabia, likely to continue negotiations toward a maritime truce. In other news, tensions continue to rise in the Middle East as regional conflict escalates. The Israeli military said it attacked two military bases in central Syria on Tuesday in an attempt to hit military sites linked to Iranian forces and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Finally, Shell has pledged to return more cash to shareholders and raised the prospect of selling and closing some of its chemical assets, as per Reuters. The oil and gas major has raised its shareholder distribution target to between 40-50% of cash flow from the current 30-40%. In addition, Shell said it targets a 4-5% annual increase in LNG sales over the next five years and a 1% annual production growth, while keeping oil output stable at 1.4mb/d. At the time of writing, the May/June’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.68/bbl and $3.29/bbl, respectively.
