Price action never lies, and renewed fears of geopolitical risk in the Middle East saw Brent flirt with 70, with prices reaching their highest level since OPEC+ first announced their output hike.

The Aug’25 Brent futures contract rallied this afternoon from $68.45/bbl at 13:00 BST to $69.80/bbl at 17:00 BST before softening to $69.50/bbl at 17:15 BST (time of writing). US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said it's "unlikely" oil production will fall next year, pushing back on a government forecast predicting a decline. In a Bloomberg interview, Wright said the outlook depends on oil prices and whether companies cut investment as planned. The Energy Information Administration on Tuesday projected the first production drop since 2021. South Sudan has resumed oil exports through Sudan after repairing a pipeline damaged by an airstrike. Petroleum ...

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

The Aug’25 Brent futures contract saw a volatile afternoon with prices bouncing between $67.76/bbl and $68.29/bbl. Prices then rallied to $68.35/bbl at 17.30 BST (time of writing). In the news, US crude inventories fell by 3.6 mb in the week to Jun 6 to 432.4 mb, a larger draw than expected, as refinery activity picked up, the EIA reported. Refinery utilization rose to 94.3%, the highest crude intake since December 2019. Gasoline and distillate stocks increased by 1.5 mb and 1.2 mb, respectively, while distillate demand fell to its lowest level since April. Notably, the US recorded no crude imports ...

The Aug’25 Brent futures contract slightly fell off to $67.13/bbl before rallying to $67.95/bbl at 16:35 BST. Prices have since softened to $67.47/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, US-China trade talks continue in London, President Trump described the discussions as positive, fuelling market confidence. Irving Oil has begun a $100 million upgrade of the fluid catalytic cracking unit at its St. John refinery in New Brunswick, Canada's largest refinery with a capacity of 320kb/d. The project aims to enhance the facility’s ability to produce gasoline and diesel, and is expected to create 675 construction jobs. New ...

Well, the bull run did happen, and it was the perfect storm. Peak summer demand. Backwardated prompt spreads. Refineries are back from maintenance. Gold rush. The Dated structure saw a good rally with Total bidding the physical, and the June and July DFLs surpassed $1/bbl, and the bulls were rewarded for their patience, with the recent run likely funding their summer holidays. The rally was well telegraphed, but we do not think the rally has a further leg up, and hold a cautiously bearish view in the short term as the bulls fade out. The 16-20 Jun week is implied ...

The Aug’25 Brent futures contract fell to $66.32/bbl at 14:36 BST before rallying to $67.06/bbl. Prices have since softened to $66.63/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing). In the news, OPEC’s oil output rose by 150 kb/d in May, reaching 26.75 mb/d, according to a Reuters survey. The rise was limited as Iraq cut production to compensate for earlier overproduction. Saudi Arabia saw the largest increase at 130 kb/d, still 100kb/d below its quota. Overall, the five OPEC nations involved in the May agreement raised output by 180 kb/d, below the planned 310kb/d due to offsetting compensation cuts. In other ...

London Calling Last week, the front-month Brent futures contract recorded its first w/w increase in three weeks, with the contract closing above $66/bbl for the first time since 26 April. At the time of writing, the M1 Brent futures contract stands at $66.90/bbl. Nevertheless, while ICE COT data for the week ending 6 June show money-managed long positions in Brent futures rose w/w, net long positions (longs minus shorts) have held relatively flat for a fourth consecutive week as short positions also increased. Against this backdrop, we expect the M1 futures contract to encounter resistance around the $68/bbl handle mid-week ...