This afternoon, the front-month Brent futures contract was initially rangebound between $68 and $68.40/bbl but softened further to $67.25/bbl at 16:40 BST. Prices found more support at this level and have since risen to $67.65/bbl at the time of writing (17:45 BST).

In this publication, we leverage Onyx's proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Jul'25 Brent/Dubai

In this publication, we leverage Onyx's proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Aug'25 EBOB crack.

The world had its eyes glued to the price of Brent, and bam, just like that, the geopolitical risk premium is gone. There were vast escalations to be sure, including direct US involvement, but add a bit of nuance and you realise the sequence of events was almost telegraphed, much like the 2024 Iran-Israel conflict, or Operation Martyr Soleimani from 2020. Approaching $80/bbl, the bullish momentum in Brent was already waning, and the market barely blinked following the US's strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Once Iran retaliated by attacking an American air base in Qatar, the market quickly sold into ...

The Aug’25 Brent futures contract rallied all afternoon to $69.01/bbl at 16:28 BST but have since softened to $68.45/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Sierra Leone will decide on launching its next offshore oil and gas licensing a senior official said on Jun 26. The six-week survey aims to de-risk exploration and attract interest for a possible licensing launch in October. Sierra Leone estimates it holds 30 B barrels of recoverable offshore resources. Director General Foday Mansaray noted that major firms like Shell, Petrobras, Hess, and Murphy Oil have recently purchased exploration data. In other news, ...

The Aug’25 Brent futures contract initially fell to $67.33/bbl before rallying up to $68.74/bbl at 17:31 BST (time of writing). In the news, Shell has entered early-stage discussions to acquire rival BP, according to a Wall Street Journal report citing sources familiar with the matter. The talks are said to be active, with BP carefully weighing Shell’s approach. No deal terms have been disclosed, and there is no certainty that the negotiations will result in a merger. In other news, Saudi Arabia’s oil export revenues dropped 21.2% yy/y in April to $16.5 B due to falling oil prices amid oversupply ...

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

It was quite the turnaround in Brent this week. Markets did a quick 180 as Middle East tensions de-escalated following Iran's telegraphed attack at a US military base in Qatar, in retaliation for American strikes against its nuclear sites. The geopolitical risk premium popped like a balloon. Bullish momentum was already waning before that, given the market's muted reaction on Monday's open, alongside the presence of Eni and Shell in the physical window, selling Forties. So synchronised were the directions of Brent futures and Dated. The futures rally on 13 June magnified the squeeze on deliverable supplies in Cushing, tightening ...