The May’25 Brent futures contract strengthened from this afternoon’s low of $72.60/bbl at 1340 GMT up to a touch under $73.20/bbl at 1745 GMT (time of writing). Fresh US sanctions on Iran continue to stoke bullish sentiment in crude oil prices. In the news today, the US Department of Interior has announced its plan this week to reopen 82% of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska for leasing and energy project development. Last year, the Biden administration had banned drilling on around 28 million acres of Alaskan federal land, estimated to hold approximately 895mb of recoverable oil. In other news, Kazakhstan’s oil ...

In this publication, we leverage Onyx's proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this fourth report, we take a look at the Mean-of-Platts Japan (MOPJ) naphtha crack. 

The May’25 Brent futures contract increased from an intraday low of $69.70/bbl on 13 Mar up to a weekly high of $72.00/bbl on 18 Mar. The May’25 contract then sold-off on 19 Mar to $70.00/bbl, which acted as a support level as prices recovered to $71.80/bbl by the time of writing on 19 Mar. There has been a noticeable shift in sentiment this week compared to the previous fortnight where market players were largely risk-off. Onyx COT positioning showed that market players became less bearish this week, increasing from -44k lots on 12 Mar up to -32k lots on 20 ...

The front-month Brent futures contract dropped to $70.55/bbl at 13:35 GMT this afternoon but found support here and climbed to $72.10/bbl at 15:40 GMT. At the time of writing, 17:20 GMT, the M1 futures contract stands just shy of $72/bbl. Brent's recovery this afternoon was fuelled by the US issuing a fourth round of sanctions on Iranian oil sales since President Donald Trump took office

May’25 Brent futures has been supported this afternoon, rising from $70.55/bbl at 1200 GMT up to $71.20/bbl just before 1700 GMT, tapering to $71.00/bl at 1735 GMT (time of writing). EIA stats released this afternoon recorded a 1.75mb build in US crude oil inventories in the week to 14 Mar, higher than the expected build of 1.1mb. In the news today, the Kremlin stated that Russia has suspended its attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, following yesterday’s phone call between Putin and Trump where Russia declined to endorse a full 30-day ceasefire. President Zelenskiy claims Putin’s words were insufficient and that ...

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

The Dated Brent physical has seen a strong performance, with the physical differential stable and rangebound around the 80c/bbl region. Prompt CFD rolls have rallied, with the 24-28 March 1-week roll rising to $0.35/bbl. This comes despite being in the midst of refinery maintenance season, and the strength can be attributed to robust refinery margins, which may have spurred some refineries to delay their schedules.

The front-month Brent futures contract witnessed a weaker afternoon, with prices softening from over $72/bbl at 12:25 GMT to $70.35/bbl at 17:00 GMT. Subsequently, the contract saw a wave of support and rallied to around $71/bbl at 17:20 GMT but met resistance here and stands at $70.65/bbl at 17:45 GMT (time of writing).