Dated v Brent:
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Edge Updates

Dated Brent Report – Rolling Down

The geopolitical risk premium may have faded, but the continued rally in Brent structure highlights the market's resilience. Futures spreads have been on a steady upward trend since the beginning of May, with Sep/Oct Brent strongly backwardated above $1/bbl (time of writing). The market has fundamental strength, with strong refinery margins that are a driver of crude demand. Resurgent distillate strength took the market by storm, but something has to give. Product cracks would eventually correct lower on account of higher production. At the same time, hot temperatures across Europe and heat-related disruption would force refiners to cut their run rates, tempering crude demand. Nonetheless, Forties saw buying from Chinese players (Petroineos and Unipec) in the physical window, taking advantage of momentary Dated weakness and Dubai strength to fix arbs into Asia potentially.

Dated Brent Report – Brent Synchronisation

It was quite the turnaround in Brent this week. Markets did a quick 180 as Middle East tensions de-escalated following Iran's telegraphed attack at a US military base in Qatar, in retaliation for American strikes against its nuclear sites. The geopolitical risk premium popped like a balloon. Bullish momentum was already waning before that, given the market's muted reaction on Monday's open, alongside the presence of Eni and Shell in the physical window, selling Forties. So synchronised were the directions of Brent futures and Dated. The futures rally on 13 June magnified the squeeze on deliverable supplies in Cushing, tightening the market and buoying Total's bids in the North Sea physical. DFLs were sent to the stratosphere, with Jul'25 touching $2/bbl. But as the old adage goes, what goes up must come down. Since the geopolitical risk deflation on 23 June, Brent spreads and DFLs are back to square one, before the geopolitical rally. The forward curve is implying weaker, especially the prompt week of 30-04 July. Glencore joined in on the selling party on 24 June, offering Midland, while BP put a Midland cargo into chains, the first of the month. We expect this trend to continue, but the fate of the prompt rolls will depend on how much the physical weakens, forming a basis for our dual trade idea. The front (July rolls) are slightly oversold, while the back (August rolls) is more overbought. Even at lower levels, there is a lack of buying, apart from refiner bids. As Dated weakens, it may be more difficult to fix arbs from the US to Europe, especially amid higher freight rates. Demand outlets would need to come from Chinese players lifting Forties, which is currently setting the curve. Stronger refinery margins may provide renewed support, especially as we've observed hedge selling flows of cracks with the refinery margins forward curve shifting noticeably higher. However, the market is more risk-off, given the elevated, headline-driven volatility recently. Despite our cautiously bearish views, renewed geopolitical headlines could see another upside breakout and volatility spike. Open interest is above average in Jun'25 contracts, but is trending in line with the 5-year average in Jul'25, underscoring the relatively subdued interest by the market. The question now becomes, how low does Dated Brent go? Prices have retraced below pre-event rally levels, but remain high on a notional basis. There is room to go longer, but are we approaching a consolidation?

Brent v Dubai:
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Edge Updates

Dubai Market Report – Summer Lull

While the Bal-Jul’25 Brent/Dubai briefly ticked up from -$1.20/bbl on 1 Jul to -$0.65/bbl on 3 Jul, the contract sold off to a low of -$1.46/bbl on 15 Jul. Similarly, the Aug’25 Brent/Dubai weakened from -$0.09/bbl on 3 Jul to -$0.45/bbl on 10 Jul

Dubai Market Report – Back to the Status Quo

The Dubai market has largely returned to normality as geopolitical risk unwinds. As per usual, the Strait of Hormuz didn't close this time, although there was noticeably more market anxiety. The forward curve is being heavily pressured, with Brent/Dubai boxes aggressively selling off. On the first day of July pricing, the Jul'25 Brent/Dubai fell below -$1/bbl, while the Jul/Aug'25 box came off to -$0.95/bbl, which marks an extreme contango structure. Aug'25 is following suit and was the next contract to fall below flat. Another notable drop was Q4'25/Q1'26, which fell from $0.05 to -$0.15/bbl. The market has largely disregarded the prospect of OPEC+ supply hikes, interpreting it as existing overproduction being formalised. The combination of the market buying Cal26 and selling front boxes would have put participants comfortably in the money. Here, trade houses and majors were the main players. Previously, we noted that refinery sell side hedging flows in Cal26 had distorted Brent/Dubai. Now that these flows have subsided, this distortion has left a vacuum conducive to a mean reversion. There is greater conviction in the downside for Brent/Dubai boxes as these flows are more speculative, whereas refinery flows are more price-agnostic.

Upcoming events

Most Popular

European Window: Brent sells-off below $70/bbl

2d ago
The Sep’25 Brent futures contract initially climbed to $70.75/bbl around 13:20 BST, where it met resistance. Despite fighting to remain above the critical $70/bbl handle at first, prices ultimately sold off and stand at $69.30/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing).

COT Deep Dive – Sing 0.5% Crack

2d ago
In this publication, we leverage Onyx's proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Aug'25 Sing 0.5% Crack.

COT Deep Dive – Brent/Dubai

2d ago
In this publication, we leverage Onyx's proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Aug'25 Brent/Dubai contract. 

Trader Meeting Notes: A whole lot of nothing

3d ago
It is hard to keep Brent away from the $60s, with price action slipping from $71.55/bbl at the start of the week to $68.90/bbl at the time of writing on 17 Jul. Nevertheless, NWE and Asian refinery margins remain supported, bolstered by robust gasoil cracks, despite larger-than-expected EIA-reported gasoline and distillate fuel oil builds. Onyx's CFTC predicting model anticipates producers/merchants to add to their ICE LS gasoil and RBOB shorts in the week ending 15 Jul, which, if true, should signal rising refiner hedging at these levels. On the macro side, nobody seems to be reacting too much to trade ...

European Window: Brent breaks above $69/bbl

3d ago
The Sep'25 Brent futures contract has seen a choppy afternoon, albeit still rangebound around $68/bbl. Prices finally broke above $69/bbl around 16:30 BST and stand at $69.36/bbl at 17:35 BST (time of writing), where they appear to be meeting resistance.

European Window: Brent Supported At $68/bbl

4d ago
The Sep’25 Brent crude futures briefly fell below $68/bbl but was supported above that level on Wednesday afternoon, trading at $68.22/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). EIA stats indicated a 3.9mb draw in crude inventories in the week ending 11 July, against API indications of 800kb build. Commercial stocks are still 8% below the 5-year average for this time of the year. India’s oil imports from Russia rose marginally in 1H25, at 1.75mb/d, with Reliance and Nayara Energy making almost half the purchases. Egypt’s diesel and gasoil imports reached a record 370kb/d in the first half of July, 65% ...

COT Report: Sweet Spot

4d ago
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

Dubai Market Report – Summer Lull

5d ago
While the Bal-Jul’25 Brent/Dubai briefly ticked up from -$1.20/bbl on 1 Jul to -$0.65/bbl on 3 Jul, the contract sold off to a low of -$1.46/bbl on 15 Jul. Similarly, the Aug’25 Brent/Dubai weakened from -$0.09/bbl on 3 Jul to -$0.45/bbl on 10 Jul

Events

Jul 22, 2025
18:30
Aug25 WTI Expiry
in 3d
Jul 23, 2025
08:00
Fujairah Inventories
in 4d
21:30
API Stats Release
in 4d
API Stats Release
in 4d
Jul 24, 2025
15:15
ARA Product Inventories
in 5d
Jul 29, 2025
19:00
FOMC Meeting
in 10d
Jul 30, 2025
08:00
Fujairah Inventories
in 11d
21:30
API Stats Release
in 11d
API Stats Release
in 11d
Jul 31, 2025
15:15
ARA Product Inventories
in 12d
18:30
Sep25 Brent Expiry
in 12d
Aug 6, 2025
08:00
Fujairah Inventories
in 18d
21:30
API Stats Release
in 18d
API Stats Release
in 18d
Aug 7, 2025
15:15
ARA Product Inventories
in 19d
Aug 12, 2025
11:00
Aug25 ICE Gasoil Expiry
in 24d
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