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Copper rallies another +2.3% to new all-time highs as the markets new favourite trade. Silver and Japanese yields continue trending higher too. Global yields starting to grind higher too with the U.S. 2s/10s curve steepening to 58bp. While the dollar finally has a positive day after its 9-day decline – matching the longest slide in 30 years.
US PLANS MORE STAKES IN MINERALS COMPANIES, TRUMP OFFICIAL SAYS
First Google, now Amazon – *AMAZON SAYS NEW CHIPS ARE MORE COST EFFECTIVE THAN NVIDIA’S
UK NOV. CONSTRUCTION PMI FALLS TO 39.4; FORECAST 44.6
India cuts rates to 5.25% as expected as central bank flags ‘weakness in some key economic indicators.
Mixed signals from secondary U.S. employment data:
U.S. small businesses shed 120,000 jobs in November, the steepest decline since May 2020, per ADP.
US Layoffs are running at crisis pace. U.S. companies announced 153,074 job cuts in October, nearly TRIPLING from 2024. It was the WORST October in 22 years. YTD, layoffs have reached 1,099,500, up +65% YoY, nearing GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS levels
Jobless claims fall to 191k, estimated 220k, much stronger than expected.
U.S. temporary hiring has re-accelerated, perhaps an early signal we may be coming out of the slowdown. (Chart 1, Steno Research, Macrobond, Bloomberg)
Russell 2000 Index +15% ytd, Profitable Russell: +9.7%, Unprofitable Russell: +45% ….hhmmm!
Pay more, get less: “US sales on Black Friday hit $18 billion, up 3% compared with a year earlier…. But US shoppers purchased 2% fewer items at checkout, and with average prices up 7%, shoppers made 1% fewer online orders.” (Chart 2, Census Bureau, Bianco Research)

ANTHROPIC’S CEO WARNS THAT SOME AI GIANTS ARE TAKING RECKLESS, HUNDREDS-OF-BILLIONS SPENDING RISKS ON DATA CENTERS AND CHIPS, SAYING THE INDUSTRY IS GAMBLING ON UNCERTAIN ECONOMIC PAYOFFS.
Oklo, is now up +24% this week after Jensen Huang said the future of AI will be powered by “small nuclear reactors.”
Data today – US PCE deflator (inflation), UniMich consumer confidence

Copper makes another new all-time high as the dollar trends lower (unable to break the magic 100 level Chart 1, Bloomberg) on news ultra dove, Trump puppet Hassett is the likely new Fed chair and ADP payrolls come in significantly weaker than expected. In Japan 10-year JGB’s rise another 4bp, highest since 2008.
The ADP report for November shows the largest monthly job losses (32,000) since early 2023, undershooting the consensus forecast gain of +10,000 jobs. Notable distribution: Small firms are the ones shedding workers, according to the latest ADP. Over the last three months, small businesses have cut 178,000 off their payroll ranks. By contrast, large firms have added 143,000. (Chart 2, @RenMacLLC)

The ISM Services PMI rose 0.2 points to 52.6, beating expectations by 0.5 points and marking the ninth consecutive month of sector expansion in 2025. The index now sits 0.9 points above its 12-month average of 51.7, indicating steady, modest growth. Business Activity (54.5%) and New Orders (52.9%) remained firmly in expansion territory, while Employment (48.9%) continued to contract for a sixth straight month. The Prices Index eased to 65.4%, down 4.6 points from October, signalling ongoing but moderating inflationary pressure.
TRUMP: “I guess a potential Fed Chair is here too…I don’t know, are we allowed to say that? Thank you, Kevin.” Kevin Hassett has consistently called for lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth and criticized the Federal Reserve for being too slow to ease monetary policy.
The S&P 500’s 5-day historical range is now 1.2%, the lowest level of the year. Markets are quiet after Thanksgiving but plenty of event risk ahead with Fed, BOE and BOJ rate meetings all pricing moves (cut, cut, hike) plus a resumption of key US payroll data, and the expected Santa Claus rally. All in low volume.
$IBM CEO says that at today’s costs it takes about $80B to build & fill a 1 GW AI data centre, so the ~100 GW of announced capacity implies roughly $8T of capex & “no way you’re going to get a return on that,” since you’d need “about $800B of profit just to pay for the interest” (Charles-Henry Monchau)
Gold is a mere 2.8% of investors AUM (Chart 3, The Market Ear, Charles-Henry Manchau)
Commodities are breaking out slowly (Chart 4, Bloomberg)
The Australian OIS is pricing one full HIKE over the next 12 months. AUDUSD up 2.5% over the last 2 weeks.
Here’s the cumulative real GDP growth for Europe’s four biggest economies since Q1 2020: 9%, 7.5%, 6.2%, 2.1%…. trending!
Another shocking stat of the day: Interest costs on US debt are now equal to 24% of every $1 in government tax revenue. The interest expense as % of collected taxes has nearly DOUBLED over the last 4 years.
Data today – EZ retail sales, US weekly jobless claims

Copper & Silver continue their trend higher, making new all-time closing highs, While UK 2-year yields break support and close in on new cycle lows based on concerns around the economy, with the OIS pricing 65bp cuts over the next 12 months.
While silver surged, gold pulled back on news of Russian central bank selling, its reserves falling 57%, a clear sign of financial stress within the economy due to the war. Meanwhile …. PUTIN: IF EUROPE WANTS TO FIGHT WAR, WE ARE READY NOW
The US yield curve is starting to steepen, 2’s/10’s now at 57bp, no doubt being led by the huge move in Japanese long end yields, with the Japanese 30-year grinding up another 3bp today.
Bitcoin fell 4.5% on Monday and has since rallied 7.8%. Anyone who trades this is braver than me, I don’t see any clear fundamentals and price action is clearly manipulated by the whales. Good luck!
Manufacturing PMI’s (Purchasing Managers Index) continue to show contraction, with the U.S. falling the most in 4 months to 48.2 (last 48.7) with employment a woeful 44 and new orders 47.4. (Chart 1, Bloomberg)

U.S. foreclosures have risen 20% as more homeowners fall behind on their mortgage payments, according to ATTOM.
TRUMP: WE ARE GOING TO GIVE REFUNDS OUT OF THE TARIFFS. I BELIEVE IN THE NEAR FUTURE YOU WON’T HAVE INCOME TAX TO PAY. (Chart 2, Eliant Capital)

Germany, what went wrong? The Left and the Green party. Industrial production collapses. (Chart, TheBoomBustReport)
Switzerland November CPI 0.0% vs +0.1% y/y expected
Data today – Global services PMIs, US ADP employment