The Officials: Prax got no racks!

The dust is settling from the Prax collapse. Lindsey Refinery is the epicentre, where the radioactive fallout is most intense. But it’s spreading across the entire country’s infrastructure, as Lindsey supplies numerous key transport hubs, including Heathrow Airport. Repeated calls to suppliers and operators including Heathrow Hydrant elicited refusals to comment and lack of clarity as to what, if anything, the Airport is doing to prevent supply disruption. Stories of fat cats gorging on gluttonous bonuses while the business collapsed made it into mainstream media, fuelling public outrage. Net Zero Brains was quick to stick his oar in, demanding an investigation into directors’ conduct and the “circumstances surrounding this insolvency” – maybe he should also look at his suffocating policies…And remember a company is not run as a social service but to generate profit and yes, returns to its owners. So, if anybody is outraged and thinks the business is too good, buy it and run it! The government is also asking Prax creditors to register to come and feast on the carcass. The vultures are circling to get their just desserts!

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The Officials: Brent finds the floor!

Brent flipped bullish today, breaking out of its recent comfy range. This morning, Brent closed at $67.26 but after the close it leapt up, rallying about 80c on its way to $68. According to traders “the mood became increasingly bullish throughout the morning”, Dated was bid, with the prompt dfl implied up to $1.80/bbl. While the geopolitical fluff and war premium have been cast off, we are now back looking at supply and demand balances and complicated models – plus of course the usual speculation about OPEC shenanigans! But we recognize this is very hard because no one seems to have good fundamental data. In a recent interview we said, ‘throw it all in the bin,’ and start over. We are a little bullish, what can we say.

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Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Rallies to $67.96/bbl

The Sep’25 Brent futures contracts rallied all morning to $67.96/bbl at 11:30 ST (time of writing). In the news, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 680 kb increase in US crude oil inventories for the week ending June 27, reversing a streak of significant inventory draws in the past five weeks. Gasoline inventories grew by 1.92 mb, Distillate inventories fell by 3.46 mb, and Cushing inventories dropped by 1.42 mb. The Department of Energy also reported a 300kb rise in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). In other news, Chinese refiners are continuing to import high volumes of crude from Iran, with first-half imports estimated at nearly 1.4 mb/d, despite official customs data showing no imports from Iran since 2022. Ports near Qingdao, Dalian, and Zhoushan have been major points of entry, with Kpler tracking 15.5 mb of Iranian crude arriving last month alone. The discounted crude has provided Iran with nearly $1B in revenue. US President Trump recently suggested that China could continue importing Iranian oil. Chevron, TotalEnergies, and Eni are among 37 companies competing in Libya’s first energy exploration tender since 2011. Libya has struggled with production due to over a decade of conflict and political instability. The country currently produces around 1.4mb/d, with a target of reaching 2 mb/d before 2030. The new tender covers 22 offshore and onshore blocks, with contracts expected to be signed by the end of 2025. Finally, the front-month Sep/Oct spread is at $0.98 /bbl and the 6-month Sep/Mar’26 spread is at $2.57/bbl.

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Technical Analysis Report: The Calm After the Storm

Brent crude futures have consolidated after last week’s sell-off, trading between a narrow $2 range over the week. Prices stabilised just above the span of the Ichimoku cloud of around $66-67/bbl, which will remain an important psychological level going forward. Should this support falter, the lower bound of the cloud around $64/bbl will be the next line of defence, aligning with the support levels seen in May. A break below this could see prices target the lower Bollinger band at $61/bbl. To conquer the upside, prices must pierce the Bollinger band 20-day midpoint, which aligns with the $70/bbl psychological level. Above this, and $71/bbl would quickly come into view, where Q4’24 prices saw lows. Beyond this, prices could face headwinds at $75/bbl, where prices saw resistance in April 2025 and Q4’24, and was also the congestion zone in February.

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The Officials: Big Beautiful Bust-up

Trump loves a good electric vehicle. Except for one flaw… “it explodes”. Or burns or something if made by your EX-BFF. You could say that Elon and Donald have an explosive relationship! Trump said Musk “lost a lot more than” just the EV mandate. The gaping hole in Elon’s heart has been filled by bitterness. Hmm, the sparks. And Musk is launching a vendetta against any Congress members who campaigned to reduce spending and voted in favour of the Big Beautiful Bill. It won’t end well. If he has anything to do with it, they will lose their next election! But if Trump gets his way, Musk might get deported before he can launch any further political stratagem. The law to easily remove nationalized citizens is already in the books.

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Desk Heads – Top of Mind – Episode 5

In this podcast, our Onyx Commodities Head of Trading Desks discuss the latest trends and developments in the oil, gas, power and carbon markets in which Onyx Commodities trades. This episode was recorded on Tuesday, 01 July 2025, at 11:30 a.m. London time. Please listen to the end of this podcast for important disclaimers.

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The Officials: The Liquidity Report 1.21

Amidst de-escalating tensions in the Middle East, which saw crude and product prices declining more than 10%; in the week ending 27 June 2025, exchange traded futures volumes in Brent front month declined w/w as it was approaching expiry, with August contract volumes falling 37.58%. Gasoil and Heating Oil exchange traded volumes contracts declined across the board w/w. By contrast, WTI futures volumes marginally increased across the three tenors w/w.

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Onyx Positioning Accumulator – 01 July 2025

When there was no commitment of traders data, technical analysts looked for a workaround to infer overall position changes in the market. The analysis tests joint changes in a futures contract’s price and open interest to determine whether long or short positions were being added or whether long or short positions were covered. These outcomes are illustrated in Table 1 below.

To build our series, we test the conditions in Table 1 below and then qualify the change as one of the four outcomes. We then count the number of occurrences of each outcome in a lookback period to give the percentage of each outcome. The four outcomes over the lookback period always add up to 100%. The look-back period rolls over daily. Table 2 shows the price implications of the four outcomes. Tables 3 and 4 illustrate Open Interest, Volume and Price relations and Open Interest, respectively.

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Onyx Positioning Report – 01 July 2025

This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.

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The Officials: Dubai’s back to the good old days!

Rolling out of bed and down the hill for flat price. As August Brent expired, the September contract came to the fore and slid to under $67 this morning. The prompt (Sep/Oct) Brent spread closed the first Asian session of July at 94c.
If you were used to June’s Dubai window, forget what you knew… Today we saw a staggering 68 partials traded and PetroChina is back – back on the sellside big time! And guess who’s back on the buyside? Yep, it’s the Vitol and PC show again – they’ve already hit two convergences in this first window, with PC nominating two Upper Zakum cargoes! PC sold 59 partials today, Glencore sold 7, while Reliance and Hengli one apiece. Vitol was buyside for 59 trades (though not all with PC), while Exxon picked up 6 and Gunvor bagged the other 3. A white-knuckled window after the somnambulance of June saw the Dubai physical premium jump 28c to $2.95 – though it’s still lower than its peak of $3.40 on 23 June.

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Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent flat sub-$67.00/bbl

Sep’25 Brent futures softened from $66.90/bbl at 0800 BST to $66.55/bbl at 1048 BST before inching back up to $66.90/bbl at the time of writing at 1120 BST, the time of writing. The UK government is funding the official receiver to ensure safe operations at Lindsey Oil Refinery after its owner, Prax Lindsey Oil Refinery Limited, filed for insolvency. Around 1,000 jobs are at risk, including contractors, prompting calls for worker compensation and an investigation into the company’s directors. The plant, bought by Prax Group in 2021, reportedly lost £75 million between then and February 2024. Polish refiner Orlen has officially ended all Russian oil imports, with its final contract—supplying the Czech Litvínov refinery—expiring in June 2025. This completes Orlen’s transition to non-Russian crude across all its refineries, aligning with EU goals to reduce dependency on Russian energy. The company now sources oil from regions including the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas. The IEA forecasts that crude oil demand from the petrochemical sector will rise to 17.4% of total oil consumption by 2030, driven by increased plastics and synthetic fibre use. The IEA forecasts feedstock demand to reach 18.4 mb/d by 2030, up 2.1 mb/d from 2024 levels. This includes a 1.1 mb/d rise in naphtha demand (to 10.2 mb/d) and a 990 kb/d increase in LPG/ethane demand (to 8.2 mb/d), supported by US growth in NGL supply. The agency predicts that demand for crude oil used in combustible fossil fuels, excluding petrochemical feedstocks and biofuels, could reach its peak as early as 2027, despite ongoing growth in jet fuel consumption. Global Crude oil production in JODI-reporting countries rose by 201.8 kb/d m/m and 1.16 mb/d y/y. The growth noted an increase in oil production mainly from Nigeria, Canada, and Saudi Arabia. The US will lift sanctions on Syrian oil imports effective today, reversing a 2011 ban, while maintaining sanctions on key figures like Bashar Assad and affiliated groups. The move follows a temporary waiver and aims to support Syria’s economic recovery. Syria, once a major crude exporter, now produces only 90 kb/d, down from 442 kb/d in 2004. Finally, the Sep/Oct’25 front-month spread is at $0.94/bbl, and the 6-month Sep/Mar’26 spread is at $2.22/bbl.

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Onyx Global Oil Balance

Update to Onyx Global Oil Balance: this update’s key revision revolves around supply, with lower non-OPEC supply growth in 2025 and an upward readjustment in Iraqi crude production following methodological changes by Petro-Logistics SA. Following a comprehensive review of Iraq’s crude balance, Petro-Logistics SA has reclassified “other” refinery feedstocks as crude oil, accounting for most of the revision in the country’s output.

This report contains Onyx Advisory’s Global Oil Liquids Balance, with projections of world oil supply (including OPEC crude oil production) and world oil demand to derive implied global oil stock changes by quarter.

The report is split into two parts: a detailed global balance on page 3 and a summary balance on page 4, which shows individual OPEC country crude production assumptions over the forecast period. The OPEC crude production level is contrasted with the ‘Call on OPEC’ crude to obtain the implied global stock change.

Historical data are sourced from the IEA, while Petro-logistics SA data are used for OPEC crude production.

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The Officials: Euro Monthly Report

June and Q2 ended literally in fireworks if not bombs. What a month it has been. It’s been chaotic: traders had complained last year about lacking volatility, but they’ve certainly got their fix over these last 6 months! From $80+ to sub-$60 and back up and down again. Wide grins to wonky smiles in the Brent futures structure… We entered June under the misplaced expectation of calm, as the market seemed to have finally sussed out that OPEC numbers are nonsensical and waited to see what comes of the end of Trump’s tariff truce.

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Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 30 Jun 2025

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. CTA positions significantly dropped in the week ending 30 June. We saw a -139% change in Brent futures as it returned to negative levels on 27 Jun, for the first time since 12 Jun. WTI futures also has negative net positioning as it dropped to -4.9k lots on 30 Jun, from +18.5k lots on 23 Jun. In refined products, RBOB futures’ net position moved into negatives as seen in crude as it fell from +20k lots on 23 Jun to -2.18k lots on 30 Jun. In distillates fuel oil, ICE LS gasoil and NYMEX heating oil fell by 6.9k lots and 6.6k lots, respectively.

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