In the week ending 11 July 2025 exchange traded futures volumes rose w/w across all instruments and across the three front tenors, following the decline in traded volumes of the week ending 4 July. Brent and WTI saw the biggest increase in exchange trade volumes in the November contract, up 38.24% and 66.14%, respectively. Meanwhile volumes in September and October contracts for WTI jumped over 57% w/w.
Recurrent rumours of China stocking up crude for its national reserves were fuelled last week by a rising price and data indications that shipments from Iran and Iraq had gone up – as we reported yesterday, Vortexa also saw 600 kb/d more imports from Iran in June. Oil prices were buoyant but a belated acknowledgment by the general oil press noting the deluge of extra Saudi oil production cooled the exuberant feeling like an evening summer shower. And just as prices tanked back down towards the sub 70 mark, Energy Aspects drew further attention to the alleged Chinese buying and estimated a surge in extra imports of around 785kb! Party time again, right? 🤣
The M1 (Sep’25) Brent futures contract climbed from around $68.60/bbl at 08:20 BST this morning to a high of $69.35/bbl at 10:25 BST, but retreated to $68.80/bbl by 11:05 BST
The report covers oil inventory data in the OECD held by industry in million barrels and days of forward demand, as provided by the International Energy Agency
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Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research. This week, we look at trades in Crude and Fuel Oil swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. CTA positioning in Brent futures increased by 73% in the week ending 14 Jul, although positioning remains below zero at -1.8k lots. Positioning in WTI futures climbed by a significant 187% w/w, flipping from -2k lots to +1.9k lots in the week ending 14 Jul. In refined fuel, ICE LS gasoil and NYMEX heating oil recorded a 15% and 36% increase w/w, although RBOB futures recorded a 300% increase in this time from -2.4k lots to +4.8k lots.
In the week ending 8 Jul, exchange open interest in Brent and WTI futures increased by a combined 73.9mb (+1.60%) following three consecutive weeks of de-risking.
This report compares and contrasts the Bloomberg survey of ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI forecast to their high/low range as well the forward curve
Boom boom, oil markets are zooming up and no major bombs going off anywhere… This must be Chinese purchasing, isn’t it. All indications are that China has been loading up. You gotta give it to them. They are flat price buyers and anything below or near $70/bbl looks good for China. Shippers say China has been busy with Iranian and also Iraqi barrels. A positive start to the week! While the stock market feels the hangover of Trump’s weekend tariff binge, with S&P 500 futures down 0.5%, Brent flat price boogied upwards in the afterparty, climbing to $71.50. The prompt spread enjoyed itself too and rose to a peak of $1.29 after the Asian close, hitting its highest since the end of the 12-day war. Not quite like the party going on in Crypto but good enough!
The Sep’25 Brent futures rallied to $71.19/bbl at 08.48. Prices fell to $70.76/bbl but bounced back to $71.46/bbl at 11:05 BST (time of writing). In the news, China’s crude oil imports surged to 12.14 mb/d in June, a 7.4% y/y increase, driven by higher deliveries from Saudi Arabia and Iran. The spike was fuelled by refinery restarts and independent refiners capitalising on steep discounts for sanctioned barrels. Saudi crude shipments rose by 845 kb/d to 1.78 mb/d, while Iranian imports climbed by 445kb/d despite US sanctions. These discounted barrels were particularly attractive to China’s “teapot” refineries in Shandong. In other news, EU envoys are nearing agreement on an 18th sanctions package against Russia, which includes lowering the price cap on Russian oil. The package aims to curb Moscow’s energy revenues in response to its invasion of Ukraine. A floating price cap, set at 15% below the average market price of Russian crude over the past three months, is part of the package, with an initial cap of about $47/bbl. The price will be revised every six months. Slovakia has raised concerns but has agreed to the new measures. A formal approval is expected at a foreign ministers’ meeting on Tuesday. The Cano Limon-Covenas Oil Pipeline in Colombia was bombed by unknown actors, causing a suspension of oil pumping between the northeast oil fields and the Caribbean coast. The operator, Cenit, activated a contingency plan to manage spills and environmental contamination. The military suspects the National Liberation Army (ELN) and FARC dissidents may be behind the attack. No casualties were reported. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Sep/Oct spread is at $1.27/bbl and the 6-month Sep/Mar spread is at $3.65/bbl.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
The bullish vibes had dissipated somewhat earlier this week but made a late comeback this afternoon. You could argue that the market is pricing an upcoming event. We keep digging. Flat price fancied another crack at $70, breaking through at 15:30 GMT. By the close, it had risen to $70.37/bbl, while the prompt spread reached $1.20. As we saw in this morning’s allocations, China can’t stop buying, the Saudi OSPs were bullish too! We can’t help but feel we are at a turning point.
The Sep’25 Brent Futures contract fell to $68.56/bbl at 09:54 BST before rallying up to $69.04/bbl at 11:40 BST (time of writing). In the news, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports to China are set to rise to the highest levels in over two years, with Saudi Aramco planning to ship about 51 mb to China in August, or 1.65 mb/d. This represents a 4 mb increase from July, the highest since April 2023. China’s top refiner, Sinopec, will receive more crude as it ramps up output after plant maintenance. The rise in exports comes as Saudi Arabia raises oil prices for Asian and European buyers, amid expectations of increased domestic demand and Chinese consumption. In other news, Shell has received environmental approval to drill up to five deep-water wells off South Africa’s west coast, targeting the Northern Cape Ultra Deep Block in the Orange Basin. The wells will be drilled at depths of 2,500 to 3,200 metres. However, the company’s previous exploration efforts on the east coast have faced legal challenges over environmental concerns. Russia’s oil revenue fell nearly 14% in June to $13.57B, due to lower global prices and higher OPEC+ output. While Russia’s crude production remained stable at 9.2 mb/d, exports of oil products dropped. The IEA raised concerns about Russia’s ability to sustain its production capacity, noting a decline in exports. Finally, the front-month Sep/Oct spread is at $1.09/bbl and the 6-month Sep/Mar’36 spread is at $2.85/bbl.
51 mil bbl crude oil Saudi allocation to China stuns the market! That’s the biggest monthly allocation since we began publication of The Officials – and even in recent memory beyond that! That’s up 4 mil bbl, with all except Unipec receiving a repeat of previous month’s allocations – and Unipec’s surged from 11 mil bbl to 15 mil bbl! “Why are they doing that?” asked another refiner. A source speculated Unipec is selling more oil into tea pots and another said that oil and premiums for oil loading in August are still ‘cheap,’ when compared with those forecasted for September.
