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Feb’26 Brent futures reached a high of $63.74/bbl at 08.37 GMT this morning before slipping to $63.45/bbl at 10.32 GMT (time of writing). OPEC+ agreed to leave oil output levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026. Despite easing some cuts earlier this year, the group still has more than 3 mb/d of reductions in place to prevent a potential supply glut. Ministers also approved a new mechanism to independently assess each country’s maximum production capacity, which will be used to set fairer output baselines from 2027. The move reflects ongoing tensions within the group, as members with increasing capacity seek higher quotas, while others struggle to maintain their output levels. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has urged OPEC to help protect Venezuela’s vast oil reserves from what he described as growing and illegal threats from the United States. In a letter to OPEC and OPEC+ members, he accused the US of attempting to “seize” Venezuela’s oil reserves. He called on the bloc to act to safeguard the “balance of the international energy market.” The appeal comes amid tensions after a statement by US President Trump declaring Venezuelan airspace closed, a move Caracas condemned as a “colonialist threat.” Swiss trading firm Gunvor is exploring US oil and gas asset deals to strengthen ties with the Trump administration, according to Reuters sources. The company had previously attempted a $22 billion purchase of Lukoil’s international assets, but Washington signalled it would block the deal, prompting Gunvor to withdraw. Now, investing in US energy assets could help improve its standing in the US while supporting the expansion of independent producers. India may reduce its imports of Russian crude by about 50%, according to former Foreign Minister Kanwal Sibal. He said flows have already declined and will continue to fall as New Delhi adjusts to US sanctions pressure, though some Russian oil will still enter the market. Sibal added that both countries are likely to seek ways to circumvent restrictions and maintain at least limited trade. India has resumed importing crude from Guyana as it seeks alternatives to Russian barrels amid tighter US sanctions. Two supertankers, Cobalt Nova and Olympic Lion, departed Guyana in late November carrying a combined 4mb, marking India’s first such crude shipments from the country since 2021. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.43/bbl and $0.85/bbl, respectively.

Feb’26 Brent futures rose overnight, from $62.72/bbl at 01.39 GMT to reach $63.26/bbl at 08.29 GMT before slipping to $63.00/bbl at 10.03 GMT (time of writing). A data centre cooling issue at CME Group has forced a halt in trading across major futures and foreign exchange markets, including key benchmarks in energy, commodities, and equities, Reuters reported. CME said it is working to restore services, while data centre provider CyrusOne has not yet commented. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow to discuss securing crude oil and natural gas supplies for Hungary and to address prospects for peace in Ukraine, according to Reuters. Despite EU efforts to reduce its reliance on Russian energy, Hungary remains closely tied to Moscow. It has recently received a US sanctions exemption for continuing to use Russian oil and gas. Petrobras is preparing to release a revised five-year investment plan that will lower capital spending by around 2%, from $111 billion to $109 billion for 2025–2029, according to Reuters. The shift reflects the balance the company must strike under President Lula, who is urging stronger domestic investment to support Brazil’s economy. Mercuria and Vitol are shortlisted to buy Raizen’s Dock Sud refinery and a network of about 700 gas stations in Argentina, a deal potentially valued between $1 billion and $1.6 billion. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.36/bbl and $0.65/bbl, respectively.

The Feb’26 Brent futures contract has recovered most of its overnight losses. The contract softened from $62.60/bbl at 20.16 GMT to move between $62.15-62.25/bbl overnight before rising to $62.55/bbl at 09.55 GMT (time of writing). The US envoy Steve Witkoff will travel to Moscow next week along with other senior US officials for talks with Russian leaders about a potential plan to end the war in Ukraine. A senior Russian diplomat said on Wednesday that Moscow will not make major concessions on a peace plan, after a leaked recording revealed Witkoff had advised how Russia should pitch proposals to US President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, the Turkish Ministry of Defence said on Thursday that a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia must be achieved before any talks on deploying a reassurance force can begin. On Tuesday, Emmanuel Macron stated that such a force would comprise French, British, and Turkish soldiers, and Ankara confirmed it was open to deployment if its terms were agreed upon. The UK Government has revised its North Sea licensing policy, permitting some oil and gas production on existing fields or infrastructure, but has retained the current windfall tax regime, which is disappointing to producers. A nighttime strike reportedly hit the Novokuybyshev oil refinery in Russia’s Samara region on 27 Nov, according to local Telegram channels. Officials have not confirmed the attack, and the extent of damage remains unclear, with no comment from Ukrainian authorities. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $0.61/bbl, respectively.