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The Sep’25 Brent Futures contract fell to $68.56/bbl at 09:54 BST before rallying up to $69.04/bbl at 11:40 BST (time of writing). In the news, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports to China are set to rise to the highest levels in over two years, with Saudi Aramco planning to ship about 51 mb to China in August, or 1.65 mb/d. This represents a 4 mb increase from July, the highest since April 2023. China’s top refiner, Sinopec, will receive more crude as it ramps up output after plant maintenance. The rise in exports comes as Saudi Arabia raises oil prices for Asian and European buyers, amid expectations of increased domestic demand and Chinese consumption. In other news, Shell has received environmental approval to drill up to five deep-water wells off South Africa’s west coast, targeting the Northern Cape Ultra Deep Block in the Orange Basin. The wells will be drilled at depths of 2,500 to 3,200 metres. However, the company’s previous exploration efforts on the east coast have faced legal challenges over environmental concerns. Russia’s oil revenue fell nearly 14% in June to $13.57B, due to lower global prices and higher OPEC+ output. While Russia’s crude production remained stable at 9.2 mb/d, exports of oil products dropped. The IEA raised concerns about Russia’s ability to sustain its production capacity, noting a decline in exports. Finally, the front-month Sep/Oct spread is at $1.09/bbl and the 6-month Sep/Mar’36 spread is at $2.85/bbl.

The Sep’25 Brent Futures contract fell to $69.82/bbl at 09:41 BST before bouncing back to $70.07/bbl. Prices have softened to $69.92/bbl at 11:10 BST (time of writing). In the news, OPEC has revised its global oil demand forecasts for the next four years, reducing them due to slower Chinese growth. However, the group has raised its longer-term outlook, citing rising oil needs in developing countries. OPEC now expects global demand to average 105 mb/d in 2025, growing to 106.3 mb/d in 2026, and reaching 111.6 mmb/d by 2029. In other news, Indian Oil Corp (IOC) plans to shut its 300kb/d diesel desulphuriser unit at its Panipat refinery for an upgrade to produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) starting next year. The overhaul is scheduled for late this year or early next year, but it won’t impact diesel output as additional units are available at the refinery. The upgraded unit will process used cooking oil to produce 30 kmt of SAF annually. Indian Oil aims to meet India’s target of 1% SAF in aviation fuel by 2027, with a further increase to 2% in 2028. Equinor has discovered gas in the Skred prospect near the Johan Castberg field in the Barents Sea, with preliminary estimates indicating between 0.3 B and 0.5 B standard cubic metres of recoverable gas equivalent. The licensees, including Equinor (46.3% stake), Vaar Energi (30%), and Petoro (23.7%), will evaluate the discovery for potential integration with the Johan Castberg field. Finally, the front-month Sep/Oct spread is at $1.15/bbl and the 6-month Sep/Mar’26 spread is at $3.22/bbl.

The Sep’25 Brent futures contract rallied to $70.71/bbl at 09:41 BST before softening a touch to $70.37/bbl at 11:45 BST. In the news, the UAE’s Energy Minister, Suhail al-Mazrouei, stated that oil markets are absorbing OPEC+’s production increases without a significant rise in inventories, indicating continued strong demand. Despite several months of production hikes, OPEC+ has not seen a major build-up in inventories, suggesting the market is in need of more oil. Mazrouei emphasized the importance of stability in the oil market and highlighted that while price fluctuations are important, the focus should also be on ensuring the right price to encourage future investments. In other news, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has adjusted its forecast, predicting jet fuel consumption to reach 8 mb/d by 2027, surpassing 2019’s level but showing slower growth. US immigration policies and global macroeconomic uncertainties are dampening US-bound travel, while domestic air travel in some regions, like China and Indonesia, shows signs of stagnation. As a result, global jet fuel consumption is expected to grow more slowly in the coming years, with demand in 2025 and 2026 forecasted to rise at a rate of just over 1%. This morning a mission was underway to rescue the crew of the Eternity C cargo ship, which sank in the Red Sea following an attack that killed at least four crew members. The attack on 7 July, attributed to Yemen’s Houthi militia, has heightened concerns about supply security in the Red Sea. Finally, the front-month Sep/Oct spread is at $1.20/bbl and the 6-month Sep/Mar’26 spread is at $3.45/bbl.