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More weak US data was ‘good’ news for equities as the OIS now prices 84% chance the Fed cut rates on Dec 10th. The S&P500 closes just 2.1% of all-time highs, while bonds edge lower to critical support, with the OIS pricing 91bp cuts over the next 12 months.
Retail sales we flat MoM (estimated +0.5%). ADP employment -13.5k (weaker than expected), Core PPI fell from 2.9% YoY to 2.6% (while PPI came in as expected), while Conference Board consumer confidence collapsed. The overall index landed at 88.7, well short of the 93.3 consensus forecast. Current Struggles: The current conditions component sank to its lowest level since 2021.Future Doubts: The forward-looking index slid back to its April 2025 low. The one bright spot, consumers remain EXTREMEELY confident about the stock market (of course!!) ….. The Santa Claus seasonal rally historically starts on 24th December!

The new long/short equity trade is Google/Nvidia. Google’s AI chips (TPUs, tensor processing units) are having a moment. These semiconductors were used to train its latest genAI model, Gemini 3, which has received rave reviews, and are cheaper to use than Nvidia’s offerings. Meta is looking at large scale purchases. Google rallied +1.5% on the day, Nvidia fell -4.7%. (Chart 1, Charles-Henry Monchau)

UK budget day but the economy is already struggling. Retailers were hit by Budget worries in November, with sentiment about the business situation recording its steepest fall in 17 years – according to the CBI’s latest quarterly Distributive Trades Survey.
GDP growth in Germany was confirmed yesterday at 0% in the third quarter, continuing the long stagnation since 2018

More than half of the 1.6% US GDP growth in the first 6 months of this year came from AI-related spending, according to Barclays. (Chart 2, Barclays)

The Oracle concerns grow, now approaching its largest drawdown in a decade, off 39% from the highs.
Bitcoin and credit spreads correlation (Chart 3, Bloomberg) amazing that S&P500 is so strong with the underlying AI sentiment.

China’s property market is bracing for a worsening crisis at state-backed Vanke, as the builder struggles to convince investors it can avoid default in the months ahead without clearer signs of government support. Vanke saw its bonds plunge over 20% on Wednesday, triggering trading suspensions on five exchange-traded bonds.
Tom Lee said live on CNCB that bitcoin is still going to $200,000 in the next 35 days….. I’m amazed he still gets airtime!
Data today – UK Autumn Budget, US jobless claims, Fed Beige book.

As the Thanksgiving holiday approaches, the American Petroleum Institute (API) has reported a notable decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories, with a draw of 1.9 million barrels for the week ending November 21. This decline follows a significant increase of

In a remarkable display of resilience amid a tumultuous geopolitical landscape, Nayara Energy has significantly ramped up its intake of Russian crude oil, defying the pressures of international sanctions. The Rosneft-backed refiner, which operates the 400,000 barrels per day (b/d)

Oil prices experienced a modest rebound in early Asian trading on Wednesday, following a significant decline that saw them reach one-month lows in the previous session. The recent downturn in prices has been attributed to a prevailing bearish sentiment in

Oil prices experienced a notable decline on Tuesday following the announcement that Ukraine has largely reached a peace agreement, with only a few minor details remaining to be finalised. This development has prompted a bearish sentiment in the market, as

Equities continued their bounce (Nasdaq +2.64%, S&P500 +1.5%) as the market now prices 81% chance the Fed cut by 25bp on 10th December. Despite all the volatility the S&P500 sits just 3.4% from its all-time high. But having said that the buying is still retail, professional investors continue dumping U.S. equities, with institutional investors offloading $766 million of stocks last week, (4-week average now at $695 million).
Secondary data remains weak:
1. Dallas Fed mfg. bus. index actual -10.40 (est. -2, last -5.00)
2. U.S. foreclosure rates surge 32% YoY.
3. Apple cuts jobs across its sales organization in rare layoff
Jump Trading just started market making on Kalshi. Prediction markets have something most established venues don’t anymore: structural inefficiency. CME, Nasdaq, and others are building their own products.
Google’s new quantum chip (The Willow Chip) has just cracked a problem scientists have been working on for more than a century, and it did it in two hours. That is around thirteen thousand times faster than one of the most powerful supercomputers on the planet…. Google is now worth more than Amazon & Tesla combined… also news that Meta is now considering Google TPUs for their data centres in a deal worth billions. Google stock jumped 6.3% to new all-time highs while Nvidia sits 14% below its peak.
SoftBank (Japan, one of the most leveraged plays on OpenAI) is down 10.5% today, adding to the -10.9% decline seen on Friday. This takes the drawdown from the October highs to -44%
U.S. Q3 advanced GDP report has been cancelled.
With Oracle and CoreWeave CDS surging, other AI CDS are also nudging higher, nothing concerning for now, especially if the Fed cut 25bp and with seasonal year end buying, but the risks are there, and the market remains (very) concerned about how all this planned AI CAPEX will be funded. (Chart 1, Bloomberg)

There are two types of forecast: bad ones and lucky ones. Anyway, here we go:
DEUTSCHE BANK SETS 2026 S&P 500 TARGET AT 8,000……….
Morgan Stanley is now calling for a +1,000 POINT rally in the S&P 500 over the next 12 months, to 7,800.
Goldman forecast Brent/WTI to $56/$52 averages for 2026, JPMorgan sees $58/$54 but says a global oil surplus COULD push Brent into the $30s by late 2027 if supply isn’t cut.

As Bitcoin falls the whales are buying (Chart 2, Glassnode, Bitwise Europe)

Gold and silver bounce off perfect support line. Silver here targets $54.48 double top breakout level (Chart 3, Bloomberg)
France November consumer confidence 89 vs 90 expected
Data today – U.S. PPI inflation, retail sales, house price index, pending home sales, Richmond Fed manufacturing index