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After a less hectic week and the US bank holiday, in the week ending 4 July 2025, exchange traded futures volumes declined w/w across all instruments and across the three front tenors with the only exception being the October Heating Oil future contract (up 9.74%). Brent and WTI saw the biggest drop in exchange trade volumes for the front month contract, down 41.18% and 49.87%, respectively. For WTI, volumes in October and November contracts decreased by 42.70% and 47.72%, respectively.

Controversy in the Murban assessment is brewing again! No rest for the wicked! Platts has proposed a new methodology for a ‘quality adjustment’ rather than just a ‘quality premium’. In practice, this means Murban could be discounted through a negative QP: the seller would then have to reimburse the buyer the value of the adjustment if a Murban cargo is declared into the window. But the adjustment is asymmetric. When Murban prices above Oman, the adjustment will equal 50% of the average spread over the previous five days, only when the spread is greater than $1. When Murban prices below Oman, the adjustment will equal 100%, with no minimum spread. As one trader said, Platts have made it harder for Murban to be assessed expensive.

Markets are bullish again! The OPEC fakery on increasing volumes is suddenly becoming clear and everyone is waking up from their data slumber. We The Officials tell you, do not trust most government data as it is all massaged. OPEC data falls in this category, highly erroneous and one could claim that it is on purpose. But web of lies have a way of catching you. And yeah, we told we were bullish, didn’t we?

What a hectic weekend: an outsized OPEC fake quota boost, massive Saudi OSPs increases and an all-you-can-eat buffet of TACOs on Sunday! OPEC wants to rip off the plaster and get out from under the reports of – hey, if there are no quotas, there are no concerns about compliance! 4D chess! So, OPEC goes up on paper, but the real increases are marginal while demand booms, so…prices go up!

It’s mayhem time… Based on numerous calls and communication with Prax, the refinery and the government it is quite clear nobody knows what’s happening. An employee told us they are unsure if they will have a job in a week’s time. Others have already taken to LinkedIn try to get a new job.
Not to worry, as Mr Miliband stepped into the breach and reassured us that the government is “ensuring continued safe operations at the site”. Note that they told us “stock levels are normal across the UK”, dodging the question of whether Lindsey itself has enough supply to last more than a few weeks. They also declined to comment when asked repeatedly where the money’s coming from! There certainly isn’t an abundance of the stuff…

9 July is the deadline, right? Oh, maybe it’s 1 August or 1 September instead… Trump is apparently planning to impose tariffs according to the new trade deals with those he whacked with his reciprocal tariffs. While the Americans are busy launching fireworks and Trump sharpens his pencil to sign the Big Beautiful Bill at 5pm, they don’t want to think about the looming tariff fight. But the market reaction was depressing on the Trump tariff news, as he crystallised the upcoming trade disruption he’s ready to unleash again, as oil just slid briefly below $68. The equity market struggled more, with S&P 500 futures dropping over 0.5% today, while gold rose as its safe haven status is reignited.