Crude

Nov’25 Brent futures was fairly rangebound on Thursday afternoon, trading with a $1/bbl range between $66.30 and $67.20/bbl. $66.50/bbl appears to be a key short-term support level, with prices seeing support there on 26-27 Aug, where they also faced resistance in the two weeks from 8-19 Aug. EIA stats indicated that US crude inventories rose by 2.4mb in the week ending 29 Aug, higher than the 0.6mb figure cited by the API. In the news, Trump pressed European leaders to halt Russian oil purchases, accusing them of funding Moscow’s war even as EU officials discussed future security guarantees for Ukraine. Nigeria’s Dangote refinery has shut its 204kb/d gasoline-making RFCC unit after catalyst leaks, with repairs that could last 2-3 months and tighten global gasoline supplies. US private-sector payrolls rose by just 54,000 in August, well below forecasts, underscoring a cooling labour market with slower job growth, softer wage gains, and mounting expectations for Fed rate cuts. Finally, the front (Nov/Dec) and 6-month (Nov/May) Brent futures spreads are at $0.46/bbl and $1.22/bbl respectively.

The November Brent Futures contract has seen a mixed afternoon session, initially rangebound between $67.70/bbl and $68.20/bbl before rallying to $68.33/bbl at 17:00 BST and subsequently falling to $67.90/bbl at the time of writing (17:15 BST). In headlines, Donald Trump accused Chinese President Xi Jinping of conspiring with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un against the United States after the three leaders appeared together at a Beijing military parade marking the 80th anniversary of Japan’s WWII surrender, a display seen as defiance toward the West. In other news, earlier this week, the US Treasury imposed new sanctions on networks within the UAE disguising Iranian oil sales as unsanctioned Iraqi crude, warning of further pressure on Tehran’s revenue streams, while also expressing frustration over Brazil’s growing purchases of Russian diesel and considering trade measures in response. Meanwhile, Shell scrapped plans to resume construction of its Rotterdam biofuels facility, citing weak market conditions that made the project uncompetitive. At the time of writing, the front (Nov/Dec) and 6-month (Nov/May) Brent spreads are at $0.47/bbl and $1.25/bbl respectively.

The front-month (Nov’25) Brent futures reached a low of $68.06/bbl at 14.00 BST and strengthened to $69.10/bbl at 17.25 BST (time of writing). Saudi Arabia is issuing new dollar Sukuk bonds, with five- and 10-year maturities, to help cover a growing budget deficit caused by lower oil prices and heavy spending on Vision 2030 projects. Investor demand has been strong, with about $15 billion in orders placed by midday in London. Despite relatively low debt levels, the IMF projects Saudi debt will rise to 41% of GDP by 2030 as borrowing continues to fund economic diversification. Saudi Aramco and Iraq’s SOMO have halted crude sales to India’s Nayara Energy after EU sanctions on the Rosneft-backed refiner. As a result, Nayara relied solely on Russian oil in August, missing its usual monthly supply of about 3 mb from Saudi and Iraqi sources. The US imposed new sanctions on companies and vessels linked to businessman Waleed al-Samarra’i for smuggling Iranian oil disguised as Iraqi crude. Washington said the move is part of its maximum pressure strategy to cut Tehran’s revenues and curb its destabilising activities. The US pledged to keep using all tools available to target those enabling Iran’s illicit oil trade. LSEG reported today that Asian crude imports rose to 27.18mb/d in August, driven by cheaper oil that boosted purchases of Iraqi crude, especially by China and India. Iraq has benefited as a price-sensitive supplier, with exports to Asia averaging 510kb/d in 2025 and generating $71.9 Bn in sales to Asian buyers in 2024. China and India remained Iraq’s top customers, with total exports reaching 1.23 billion bbls last year. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Nov/Dec’25) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads sit at $0.56/bbl and $1.60/bbl, respectively.

The front-month (Nov’25) Brent futures contract oscillated between $68.10/bbl and $68.35/bbl this afternoon. At the time of writing (17:48 BST), it sits at the lower end of this range, at $68.10/bbl

Nov’25 Brent futures reached $67.92/bbl at 13.55 BST but softened to $67.50/bbl at 17.23 BST (time of writing). EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said secondary sanctions and energy-related measures would be the most effective tools to weaken Moscow’s ability to wage war in Ukraine. The bloc is preparing its 19th sanctions package, which may target Russia’s energy, financial sectors, and alleged child abductions, while also considering the use of an anti-circumvention tool to stop third countries from helping Russia evade restrictions. At the same time, EU officials discussed long-term security guarantees for Ukraine, including shifting training missions inside the country and supporting its defence industry, while allies continue debating post-war troop deployments. ExxonMobil predicts North American oil production will peak in the 2030s as US hard-to-recover reserves deplete, though technological advances are expected to sustain output. Improved efficiency and productivity could boost production by 0.5 mb/d by 2050, while a lack of innovation may cause a decline of 2.5 mb/d. Meanwhile, regulatory changes in Russia may pave the way for ExxonMobil’s possible return to the Sakhalin-1 project and the Russian market. The EIA reported today that US crude production was at a record 13.580 mb/d in June vs 13.447mb/d in May (revised down from 13.488mb/d. Ahead of elections, Guyana’s opposition candidates vow to renegotiate Exxon’s 2016 oil contract to ease inflation and boost social programs, while President Irfaan Ali resists changes. Rival Aubrey Norton plans broader talks, and outsider Azruddin Mohamed proposes ring-fencing Exxon’s costs. Exxon, investing $55 billion in the Stabroek block, expects output to hit 1.7mb/d by 2030, lifting state revenue from $2.5Bn in 2025 to $10Bn. Finally, the front (Nov/Dec) and 6-month (Nov/May) Brent futures spreads are at $0.56/bbl and $1.39/bbl, respectively.

Oct’25 Brent futures failed to surpass the $68/bbl level on Thursday afternoon, dropping to lows of $67.40/bbl. Ultimately, prices have traded within a $1 range over the past day. Prices are being buoyed by the 100-day moving average, with $69/bbl acting as short-term resistance. Russia’s Ust-Luga oil export terminal will operate at around 350kb/d in September, around half its usual capacity, following damage to pipeline infrastructure from Ukrainian drone attacks. Phillips 66 will begin shuttering its 139kb/d Los Angeles-area refinery in September, and is expected to lay off most workers (600 employees and 300 contractors) in December. Ukraine said it hit two Russian oil refineries, the Kuibyhsev refinery (140kb/d) and the Afipsky refinery (180kb/d). Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.59/bbl and $1.84/bbl respectively.

The Oct’25 Brent Futures contract initially rallied to $67.89/bbl at 15:34 BST before falling to $67.39/bbl at 16:22 BST. Prices have since bounced back to $67.83/bbl at 17:15 BST (time of writing). In the news, Russia launched a major drone assault on Ukraine’s energy and gas infrastructure overnight, hitting six regions and leaving over 100,000 people without power, according to Ukrainian officials. Key gas transport facilities in Poltava and a major substation in Sumy were damaged. The attacks also struck Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Chernihiv, disrupting utilities and forcing healthcare and water systems onto backup power. In other news, crude oil shipments from Russia to Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline may resume in test mode on Thursday at reduced volumes, Hungary’s Foreign Minister said. Hungarian oil company MOL stated it can temporarily rely on reserves but may need to draw on strategic stockpiles or increase imports via the Adriatic pipeline. A prolonged halt past September 1 could disrupt Hungary’s fuel supply and halt diesel exports from Slovakia to Ukraine. Harvest Midstream, owned by Hilcorp founder Jeff Hildebrand, will acquire $1 Bn in natural gas gathering and processing assets from MPLX. The deal includes 1,500 miles of pipelines and 1.2 bcf/d of processing capacity, expanding Harvest into Utah’s Uinta and Green River shale basins. MPLX has completed $3.5 Bn in acquisitions this year, including Northwind Midstream. Finally, the front-month Oct/Nov and 6-month Oct/Apr spreads are at $0.58/bbl and $1.79/bbl respectively.