Crude

The Feb’26 Brent futures contract traded in the $62/bbl handle this afternoon, from $62.39/bbl at 13:30 GMT to $62.80/bbl at 16:20 GMT. Prices have since settled to $62.64/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that the US-proposed draft plan for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire could serve as the basis for future agreements. However, he elaborated by saying that the draft still requires further modifications. Putin has also described Ukrainian leadership as illegitimate and thus not in a position to sign peace deals and reiterated his demand for international recognition of Russian gains in Ukraine, which is a strict red line for Ukraine. In other news, Reuters has reported that OPEC+ is unlikely to alter oil output levels at its meetings this weekend and is seeking to agree on a mechanism to evaluate members’ maximum production capacity. Reuters sources claim that OPEC+ is expected to maintain a pause in hikes in Q1’26. In Kurdistan, UAE-based firm Dana Gas has reported that operations have been halted at the Khor Mor gas field after a rocket attack hit a liquid storage tank, which resulted in a fire. The attack is the most serious since drone strikes at its oilfields in mid-July. The attack has reportedly not affected Kurdistan’s oil production or exports. Meanwhile, the discount of Russia’s Urals oil blend compared to Brent crude increased by six percentage points this month, reaching 23%, according to the Russian central bank. The central bank’s deputy governor, Alexei Zabotkin, said that they assume the widening discount as a “temporary phenomenon.” The discount reflects growing pressure on Russian oil revenues following Western sanctions. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $0.62/bbl, respectively.

The Feb’26 Brent futures contract climbed this afternoon, from $61.58/bbl at 14:30 GMT to $62.18/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, the UK government has announced that it will allow new oil and gas production on or near existing fields, easing restrictions but dashing hopes of an early end to windfall taxes on producers. UK oil output has declined from 4.4mb/d in 2000 to around 1mb/d currently, with forecasts of output being under 150kb/d by 2050. New licenses can be granted only if linked to existing fields and infrastructure. The government retained the 38% windfall tax, part of a 78% total tax on high profits, until 2030, with industry warning this may stall projects and jobs. Elsewhere, Reuters has reported that Brazilian state-run oil firm, Petrobras, will see its first cut to its five-year investment plan due to lower oil prices. The plan, under President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s government, is poised to see a 2% drop in its previous $111bn capital expenditure. In other news, Reuters sources have claimed that a Western-sanctioned vessel, the Aframax vessel Tiger 6, has been delayed at a port in eastern India due to insurance verification issues. The vessel was loaded with Russian ESPO oil destined for Indian Oil Corporation; LSEG data showed the vessel floating near the Paradip port this afternoon. Earlier this year, India had tightened insurance rules for ships at its ports as it attempts to target Russian shadow fleets. In Nigeria, Argus has reported that Dangote refinery’s current fuel samples do not meet European standards, due to elevated sulphur and cetane levels. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.36/bbl and $0.45/bbl, respectively.

The Feb’26 Brent futures contract eased this afternoon, from $62.69/bbl at 13:30 GMT to $61.00/bbl at 16:00 GMT. Prices met some support here, recovering to $62.15/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, the White House has said that ‘tremendous progress’ has been made towards a Russia-Ukraine peace deal. Kyiv’s National Security Chief Rustem Umerov has said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy may visit the US in the coming days to finalise an agreement with US President Donald Trump; Russia has yet to make an official statement on these developments. Elsewhere, Reuters has reported that the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) has restarted loadings after overnight Ukrainian drone attacks, which damaged its office. Details on the extent of disruptions to operations have not been confirmed, though a Reuters source claims that operations have mostly been unaffected. In India, Kpler data initially suggest that November oil imports are set to reach their highest level in five months, as refiners rushed to secure barrels before a US deadline to cease transactions with sanctioned Russian oil producers took effect. India has been the largest buyer of discounted seaborne Russian crude since Western sanctions were imposed on oil majors. Elsewhere, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak mentioned that Russia could increase its oil exports to China by extending current agreements. Novak noted that a deal for exporting Russian crude through Kazakhstan could be extended for an additional 10 years, until 2033. Earlier this year, Russia suggested that increasing pipeline flows might raise the amount of oil reaching China through the Atasu-Alashankou pipeline by 2.5mb/y. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.32/bbl and $0.40/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract rose this afternoon, from $62.36/bbl at 14:30 GMT to $62.92/bbl at 17:00 GMT. In the news, Russia’s Tuapse refinery (capacity 240kb/d) has restarted processing crude after drone attacks earlier this month. According to LSEG data, Russia’s Tuapse port resumed oil product exports last week, following its two-week suspension. As per Reuters sources, a Gambia-flagged tanker left the Black Sea port on 17 November with roughly 30kt of gasoil on board, and a Malawi-flagged Satna loaded the same volume of gasoil on 18 November. Elsewhere, the Serbian government has announced that the country has sufficient fuel reserves to meet domestic demand, even as its key NIS oil refinery risks closure due to US sanctions on its Russian owners. Serbian Energy Minister Dubravka Djedovic Handanovic stated that NIS’s operational reserves, along with all other reserves stored with NIS, amounted to 90kt of diesel and 53.6kt of gasoline. In other news, China’s Unipec has signed a deal to supply roughly 60kt of jet fuel to Lufthansa annually, per a company in-house newspaper. The supplies are poised to feed Lufthansa’s supply chains at airports in Belgium and Germany. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 are at $0.62/bbl and $1.20/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract eased this afternoon, from $63.05/bbl at 13:15 GMT to $62.31/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, discounts for Russian Urals crude at Indian ports have tripled since August compared to Dated Brent, due to US sanctions pushing away major Russian crude buyers. Urals cargoes for December delivery are trading at discounts of $5-6/bbl to Dated Brent as compared to the $1-2/bbl levels seen in August. In a Reuters report, China has imported substantial quantities of crude oil from Indonesia, to which Reuters’ sources have claimed are a method of masking shipments of sanctioned Iranian crude shipping from Malaysia amid scrutiny. Although there have been no official imports of Iranian crude by China since 2022, customs data consistently indicates that Malaysia-sourced oil appears more frequently than Malaysia’s actual production suggests. China’s crude imports from Indonesia rose to 236kb/d in October, per Chinese customs. Indonesian customs report 1.7mt exported from January to September, with only about 25kt going to China. Finally, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.62/bbl and $1.17/bbl, respectively.