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In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Jul’25 Brent/Dubai
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Aug’25 EBOB crack.
The world had its eyes glued to the price of Brent, and bam, just like that, the geopolitical risk premium is gone. There were vast escalations to be sure, including direct US involvement, but add a bit of nuance and you realise the sequence of events was almost telegraphed, much like the 2024 Iran-Israel conflict, or Operation Martyr Soleimani from 2020. Approaching $80/bbl, the bullish momentum in Brent was already waning, and the market barely blinked following the US’s strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Once Iran retaliated by attacking an American air base in Qatar, the market quickly sold into this, and Brent fell by $10. Apart from a few diverted flights away from Doha and thousands of jetlagged passengers, the damage was minimal. People knew the base was empty – it was said that the gym at the base was less busy than usual; online commenters joked that it was leg day. Once it became clear that the Strait of Hormuz wouldn’t be disrupted, boom goes Brent; the last two weeks were a fever dream. Now that we are back to the 60s, more pressing fundamental issues lie ahead of us: What of increased OPEC+ supply? What of bearish oil balances? What of Trump’s tariffs? The 90-day tariff deadline is looming. As US equities approach record highs, they are laser-focused on that September rate cut. Friday’s US PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, could indicate what lies ahead.
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract rallied all afternoon to $69.01/bbl at 16:28 BST but have since softened to $68.45/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Sierra Leone will decide on launching its next offshore oil and gas licensing a senior official said on Jun 26. The six-week survey aims to de-risk exploration and attract interest for a possible licensing launch in October. Sierra Leone estimates it holds 30 B barrels of recoverable offshore resources. Director General Foday Mansaray noted that major firms like Shell, Petrobras, Hess, and Murphy Oil have recently purchased exploration data. In other news, Sudan and South Sudan have not reached a deal on revising the oil transit fees South Sudan pays to export its crude through Sudan’s pipeline network, Radio Tamazuj reported Thursday. South Sudan relies on a pipeline through Sudan to access Port Sudan on the Red Sea. Sudan is now seeking higher fees, citing logistical challenges at the Bashayer terminal. With continued uncertainty, South Sudan is exploring alternatives, including a potential pipeline to Djibouti via Ethiopia. Associated British Foods has warned it will shut the Vivergo bioethanol plant by September unless the government provides immediate support. The closure would be a blow to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who hailed last month’s UK-US trade deal as a win for British industry. The deal eliminated the UK’s 19% tariff on US ethanol, allowing 1.4 B litres duty-free, equivalent to the entire UK market. British producers argue this, combined with existing regulatory imbalances, makes UK operations unviable. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep and 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spreads are at $0.93/bbl and $3.23/bbl respectively.
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract initially fell to $67.33/bbl before rallying up to $68.74/bbl at 17:31 BST (time of writing). In the news, Shell has entered early-stage discussions to acquire rival BP, according to a Wall Street Journal report citing sources familiar with the matter. The talks are said to be active, with BP carefully weighing Shell’s approach. No deal terms have been disclosed, and there is no certainty that the negotiations will result in a merger. In other news, Saudi Arabia’s oil export revenues dropped 21.2% yy/y in April to $16.5 B due to falling oil prices amid oversupply concerns and weaker global growth. Prices dipped about 15% that month following OPEC+’s surprise plan to ramp up production and a fresh wave of US tariffs. Oil exports made up 68.6% of total exports in April, down from 77.5% a year earlier. While total exports fell 10.9%, non-oil exports rose 24.6%, data from Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Statistics showed. Israel’s Leviathan and Karish gas fields have resumed operations after nearly two weeks offline due to the conflict with Iran, restoring a key energy supply to Egypt and Jordan. The shutdown, left only the older Tamar field running for domestic use. Leviathan partners NewMed and Ratio Energies estimate the halt cost $12 million in lost revenue and said they may seek state compensation. Israel’s Energy Ministry confirmed the restart after a security review, saying exports and tax revenues would rise and electricity and industry operations would benefit. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep and 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spreads are at $1.00/bbl and $3.46/bbl respectively.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
It was quite the turnaround in Brent this week. Markets did a quick 180 as Middle East tensions de-escalated following Iran’s telegraphed attack at a US military base in Qatar, in retaliation for American strikes against its nuclear sites. The geopolitical risk premium popped like a balloon. Bullish momentum was already waning before that, given the market’s muted reaction on Monday’s open, alongside the presence of Eni and Shell in the physical window, selling Forties. So synchronised were the directions of Brent futures and Dated. The futures rally on 13 June magnified the squeeze on deliverable supplies in Cushing, tightening the market and buoying Total’s bids in the North Sea physical. DFLs were sent to the stratosphere, with Jul’25 touching $2/bbl. But as the old adage goes, what goes up must come down. Since the geopolitical risk deflation on 23 June, Brent spreads and DFLs are back to square one, before the geopolitical rally.
The forward curve is implying weaker, especially the prompt week of 30-04 July. Glencore joined in on the selling party on 24 June, offering Midland, while BP put a Midland cargo into chains, the first of the month. We expect this trend to continue, but the fate of the prompt rolls will depend on how much the physical weakens, forming a basis for our dual trade idea. The front (July rolls) are slightly oversold, while the back (August rolls) is more overbought. Even at lower levels, there is a lack of buying, apart from refiner bids. As Dated weakens, it may be more difficult to fix arbs from the US to Europe, especially amid higher freight rates. Demand outlets would need to come from Chinese players lifting Forties, which is currently setting the curve. Stronger refinery margins may provide renewed support, especially as we’ve observed hedge selling flows of cracks with the refinery margins forward curve shifting noticeably higher.
However, the market is more risk-off, given the elevated, headline-driven volatility recently. Despite our cautiously bearish views, renewed geopolitical headlines could see another upside breakout and volatility spike. Open interest is above average in Jun’25 contracts, but is trending in line with the 5-year average in Jul’25, underscoring the relatively subdued interest by the market. The question now becomes, how low does Dated Brent go? Prices have retraced below pre-event rally levels, but remain high on a notional basis. There is room to go longer, but are we approaching a consolidation?
The Aug’25 Brent Futures contract initially rallied to $69.26/bbl at 14:08 BST but quickly fell off to $67.78/bbl. Prices have since fallen further to $66.93/bbl at 17:50 BST (time of writing). The drop in price comes after US President Trump stated that China could now resume buying Iranian oil. Further fuelling today’s bearish sentiment was the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. President Trump later accused both sides of violating it, noting Israeli strikes and Iranian retaliation. Explosions were reported in Tehran despite Trump’s claim he had urged Israel to hold back. Barclays noted that without a broader regional escalation, supply disruptions remain unlikely. In other news, US oil and gas producer Coterra Energy will keep its rig count steady at nine in the Permian Basin, CEO Tom Jorden said Tuesday. Speaking at the J.P. Morgan Energy, Power & Renewables Conference, Jorden noted the company had considered reducing to seven rigs in the second half of 2025, fearing a price collapse. EU diplomats expect to reach a deal this week on a new round of sanctions against Russia, though Slovakia and Hungary are pushing for concessions on Russian energy. The proposed 18th sanctions package includes measures targeting Russia’s energy revenues, banks, and shadow tanker fleet, aiming to pressure Moscow into a Ukraine ceasefire. Slovakia, citing economic impact, wants exemptions for landlocked countries, capped transit fees, and guarantees against shortages. Finally, the front/month Aug/Sep and the 6-month Aug/ Feb’26 spreads are at $0.75/bbl and $2.08/bbl respectively.
The Aug’25 Brent Futures contract fell off to $75.99/bbl at 15:22 BST before recovering to $77.30/bbl at 17:30 BST. Prices then dropped to $75.18/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). The price drops comes after reports of Iran launching attacks against US bases in Qatar. In the news, US President Donald Trump called for lower oil prices following recent US and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities that stoked fears of a supply disruption. “Everyone, keep oil prices down, I’m watching! You’re playing into the hands of the enemy, don’t do it,” Trump posted in all caps on Truth Social. He also urged the Department of Energy to “drill, baby, drill,” prompting Energy Secretary Chris Wright to respond on X: “We’re on it!”. Venezuela’s Cardon refinery, the country’s second-largest with a capacity of 310kBrent/Dubai was shut down on 23 June due to a power outage, according to two sources familiar with the matter. Operated by state-owned PDVSA, the plant plays a key role in processing heavy crude from the Orinoco Belt. The blackout began early in the day and did not impact the nearby 645kBrent/Dubai Amuay refinery. PDVSA is transferring equipment between the two sites to restore power. In other news, US electricity prices surged to their highest levels since winter as a severe heat wave swept across the eastern half of the country, straining regional power grids. Next-day power prices at the PJM West hub in Pennsylvania soared over 430% to $211/MWh, while New England prices rose 180% to $161/MWh. PJM Interconnection expects power demand to peak at 160,000 MW Monday, prompting alerts for generators to operate at full capacity. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep spread is at $1.38/bbl and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spread is at $5.11/bbl.
Brent crude futures rose by 11% over the past week, reaching 5-month highs as the Iran-Israel conflict worsened, with the market pricing in a higher geopolitical risk premium. In the latest escalation, strikes from the US on Iranian nuclear sites
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The Aug’25 Brent crude futures rose from $76.02/bbl at 13:29 BST to $76.91/bbl at 14:52 BST and softened to $76.60/bbl at 17:10 BST (time of writing). The UK is withdrawing embassy staff from Iran as a precaution amid ongoing exchanges of fire between Israel and Iran, including new Iranian strikes and Israeli attacks on targets in Tehran. British, French, and German foreign ministers are meeting their Iranian counterparts in Geneva to help ease tensions. The Trump administration announced new sanctions targeting Iran and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis, citing efforts to disrupt the supply of sensitive machinery and illicit oil trading networks. The Iran-related sanctions hit eight entities, one individual, and one vessel, including Hong Kong-based Unico Shipping Co. Ltd and Athena Shipping Co. Ltd, for supporting Tehran’s ballistic missile and UAV programs. Separately, the Treasury sanctioned four individuals, 12 entities, and two vessels linked to smuggling operations that fund the Houthis. The EU has decided not to lower the Russian oil price cap from $60 to $45/bbl due to rising volatility from the Israel-Iran conflict. The proposal was set for discussion by EU foreign ministers, but diplomats said the unstable Middle East situation made it too risky. G7 countries also agreed to delay action amid fluctuating oil prices. Residents of Nigeria’s Bille and Ogale communities will go to trial in 2027 over oil pollution claims against Shell and its former Nigerian subsidiary. The lawsuit, filed in 2015, alleges years of environmental damage, including contaminated drinking water. The communities seek compensation and cleanup of the oil spills. Finally, the front (Aug/Sep) and 6-month (Aug/Feb) Brent futures spreads are at $1.49/bbl and $5.27/bbl, respectively.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Jul’25 CP (Saudi Aramco) propane
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Jul’25 Naphtha East/West (MOPJ – NWE Naphtha).
