Crude

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Trader Meeting Notes

Trader Meeting Notes: Strait out of Tehran

On Wednesday, JP Morgan said their estimated Brent fair value stood at $66/bbl, considering the low probability of the Strait of Hormuz entirely shutting down. The M1 Brent futures, however, rallied to $76/bbl this day and now stands at $78.65/bbl (at the time of writing on 19 Jun). While we also see little chance of a complete shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz…

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European Window: Brent climbs above $75/bbl

The Aug’25 Brent crude futures saw a bullish performance on Tuesday afternoon, surpassing $75/bbl, peaking at $75.66/bbl at 15:51 BST and traded at $75.30/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). Fears of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have kept prices supported, as Trump signals he may consider direct action to halt Iran’s uranium enrichment amid rising military risks and limited diplomatic progress. Israel has intensified strikes on Iranian targets, including nuclear infrastructure, while the U.S. accelerates its regional military buildup, fuelling concerns that Washington may be drawn directly into the conflict. In its monthly oil report, the IEA noted that while geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, have intensified, oil markets remain well supplied heading into 2025, with global demand growth revised slightly lower and inventories continuing to build. The EU has proposed a phased ban on Russian oil and gas imports by end-2027, aiming to cut energy ties with Moscow while allowing time for contract exits and alternative supply planning. The U.S. is expected to object to a UN aviation council recommendation on sustainable jet fuel criteria, arguing it unfairly favours Brazilian corn ethanol and risks disadvantaging U.S. producers in a growing global SAF market. Finally, the front (Aug/Sep) and 6-month (Aug/Feb) Brent futures spreads are at $1.40/bbl and $4.75/bbl respectively.

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Dubai Market Report – A Quiet Place

Given the return of geopolitical risk and the resulting hysterical volatility in the futures market, it has been a quieter-than-expected period in the Dubai market. In theory, Brent/Dubai was expected to crater on fears of supply disruption in the Middle East with the reignition of conversations around the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz

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Dated Brent Supplementary Report – Resurgence

The Dated market rallied from already robust levels as the physical received strong bids. There was initially some weakness in the physical differential on 10-12 Jun as on 11 Jun there was 23-27/Jun CFD sold by a British Major with US buying, whilst the physical was better offered, as four cargoes traded, leaving the physical differential weaker with Forties, WTI Midland and Ekofisk traded in the window. Following the Israeli strikes on Iran and the retaliation and escalation, there has been strong buying. On 13 Jun, we saw the Brent and Ekofisk curves lifted higher by a Geneva trade house and strong bids on back-end Midland. There was a cargo trade at the front of the Midland curve between two majors at curve. The physical differential is implied stronger at 109c on 16 Jun, as Geneva trade houses and majors were bidding the majority of grades higher in the window.

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European Window: Brent recovers to $73/bbl

The front-month Brent futures contract gapped lower from $73.55/bbl at 14:50 BST to $71.15/bbl at 15:00 BST. Prices edged close to the $70/bbl psychological support level around 15:30 BST, where they met support and climbed to $72.80/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing).

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Brent Forecast: 16th June 2025

Brent forecast – Geopolitical special Iran has rejected truce talks while under attack, refusing to negotiate until it has completed its response to Israel’s strikes. This is the fourth day of open warfare, and the line in the sand around

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Refinery Margins Report

Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.

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ETFs Report

Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.

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European Window: Brent falls to $73.49/bbl

The Aug’25 Brent futures fell to $73.92/bbl before bouncing back to $74.95/bbl. Prices fell for the rest of the afernoon to $73.49/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, The IEA stated it was prepared to release oil from emergency reserves if Israel’s attack on Iran caused significant market disruptions. The agency emphasized that global supplies remained stable, with 1.2B barrels available in strategic reserves. OPEC sharply criticized the IEA’s remarks, accusing it of stoking unnecessary fear and insisting there was no need for such measures. While Iran’s energy infrastructure hasn’t been hit, markets remain anxious about potential escalation, particularly risks to the Strait of Hormuz or a repeat of the 2019 drone attacks on Saudi facilities. Analysts warn future price trends will depend on whether Iran targets regional energy infrastructure in retaliation. In other news, analysts at Goldman Sachs and Citi believe Israel’s strikes on Iran are unlikely to significantly disrupt global oil supply. Goldman has raised its geopolitical risk premium but still expects Brent and WTI prices to fall to $59/bbl – $55/bbl in Q4 2025, and $56/bbl – $52/bbl in 2026. Citi echoed this, saying sustained high prices are unlikely. However, Goldman warned that a worst-case scenario involving a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could push prices above $100/bbl. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spreads are at $1.39/bbl and $4.52/bbl respectively.

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COT Deep Dive – Naphtha Crack

In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.

In this edition, we take a look at the Jul’25 Naphtha Crack.

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COT Deep Dive – Gasoline Arb

In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.

In this edition, we take a look at the Jul’25 Gasoline Arb (RBOB – EBOB).

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Trader Meeting Notes

Trader Meeting Notes: In Pretio Veritas

Price action never lies, and renewed fears of geopolitical risk in the Middle East saw Brent flirt with 70, with prices reaching their highest level since OPEC+ first announced their output hike.

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European Window: Brent Rallies to $69.50/bbl

The Aug’25 Brent futures contract rallied this afternoon from $68.45/bbl at 13:00 BST to $69.80/bbl at 17:00 BST before softening to $69.50/bbl at 17:15 BST (time of writing). US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said it’s “unlikely” oil production will fall next year, pushing back on a government forecast predicting a decline. In a Bloomberg interview, Wright said the outlook depends on oil prices and whether companies cut investment as planned. The Energy Information Administration on Tuesday projected the first production drop since 2021. South Sudan has resumed oil exports through Sudan after repairing a pipeline damaged by an airstrike. Petroleum official Deng Lual Wol confirmed on June 10 that shipments have restarted, crediting the swift fix to efforts by South Sudanese leaders, Sudanese authorities, and oil companies. President Donald Trump voiced frustration over rising oil prices, “I don’t like – the oil prices have gone up just a little bit over the last few days,” Trump said at a White House event. “It’s gonna keep going down a little bit, right? Because we have inflation under control.”. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spreads are at $0.91/bbl and $2.86/bbl, respectively.

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COT Report: Covering Shorts 

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

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