Crude

The front-month Brent futures contract dropped from $64.35/bbl at 15:50 GMT to $63.90/bbl at 16:20 GMT before easing further to $63.15/bbl at the time of writing (17:08 GMT). Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has reportedly agreed to work on the US’ draft plan to end the Russo-Ukrainian war. Meanwhile, private Indian refiner Reliance has stopped importing Russian crude oil into its refining complex at Jamnagar in Western India, effective 20 Nov – ahead of the US deadline for sanctions on Russian crude oil buyers. In other news, oil from Lukoil’s PJSC share of a field in Iraq continues to flow to global markets, as state marketer SOMO (State Organisation for Marketing of Oil) has taken over sales and is retaining any proceeds in Iraq for the time being, according to Bloomberg. In macro news, US non-farm payrolls climbed to 119,000 in September, from a revised 4,000 in August; however, the unemployment rate increased to a four-year high of 4.4%. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Jan/Feb’26) and six-month (Jan/Jul’26) Brent futures spreads stand at $0.54/bbl and $1.24/bbl, respectively.

he Jan’26 Brent futures contract has risen this afternoon, from $62.91/bbl at 15:00 GMT to $63.59/bbl at 16:15 GMT. Prices have since eased to $63.34/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has stated that Russia is set to reach its OPEC+ oil production quota (~9.5mb/d in November) by early 2026, claiming that recent sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil have not impacted production. Novak also claimed that Russia has fully compensated for its previous overproduction and that no voluntary output reduction is being considered at this time. Elsewhere, data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) has shown that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports have reached a 7-month high in September, reaching 6.5mb/d. JODI data also indicated that world oil demand in September surged by 1.4mb/d, led by higher consumption in the US and Indonesia. In other news, Rosneft has slashed its stake in the Kurdistan Pipeline Company (KPC) to less than 50% to protect it from US sanctions, according to Reuters; an 11% stake was sold to UAE-based DEX Capital. In other news, Reuters sources have reported that TotalEnergies and Chevron are leading the race to purchase a 40% operating stake in Galp’s Mopane discovery in Namibia. Mopane has estimated some 10mb of oil at the discovery, with an auction winner being announced by the end of the year. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.47/bbl and $1.04/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract eased this afternoon, from $64.25/bbl at 14:00 GMT to $64.01/bbl at 16:45 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters has reported that Rosneft’s Ryazan oil refinery (capacity 340kb/d) has halted its crude processing after a Ukrainian drone strike last weekend. According to Reuters sources, the refinery is expected to be offline until the end of the month, and no oil loadings are scheduled until after 01 December. Elsewhere, Reuters has also reported that crude loadings at Russia’s Novorossiysk port are 2-3 days delayed due to damage on a key jetty at the facility from a Ukrainian attack. Damages were reported at berth 1 and 1A, which both handle 140kt Suezmax tankers; the former continues to remain idle. In a Bloomberg report, Chinese imports of Russian and Iranian oil are set to drop this month as sanctions continue to disrupt global flows. Estimates by Rystad Energy, as cited by Bloomberg, suggest that imports from Russia could drop 800kb/d in November, while Chinese imports of Iranian crude could drop by roughly 30% in November compared to previous months. In other news, Ukrainian private energy firm DTEK announced that it delivered its first US LNG shipment via the northern route from Lithuania, as Ukraine seeks to diversify its gas import sources. Once re-gasified, the gas will then head to Eastern European markets, including Ukraine and Poland. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.40/bbl and $0.93/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract eased this afternoon, from $64.70/bbl at 14:00 GMT to $64.37/bbl at 17:15 GMT (time of writing). In the news, the BBC has reported that a Turkish LPG tanker was struck by Russian drones in the Odesa port of Izmail. Civilian vessels were reportedly damaged, and the nearby village of Plauru has been ordered to evacuate. The tanker, Orinda, carried 4kt of gas; exact damages and impacts have yet to be officially reported. In other news, Reuters has reported that Iraq is seeking a 6-month waiver from US sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil to delay the selling of its stake in the West-Qurna-2 oilfield. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has met with Vagit Alekperov, the former CEO of Lukoil, according to the Prime Minister’s office, to discuss the waiver request. No further details were given. In the US, Chevron is reportedly considering options to acquire Lukoil’s foreign assets, according to Reuters’ sources. Chevron looks to purchase assets where the companies overlap, though no official comment has been made from the US major. In other news, Gulf Keystone Petroleum has announced that international oil firms in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region have loaded their first export shipment from Turkey’s Ceyhan terminal. The company anticipates payment for its share of the first cargo within 30 days and a second lifting at the end of this month. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.44/bbl and $0.99/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract rose this afternoon, from $63.70/bbl at 13:30 GMT to $64.60/bbl at 16:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters has reported that Russia’s Saratov oil refinery (capacity 147kb/d) has halted operations following Ukrainian drone attacks. Per Reuters’ sources, the refinery could remain down until the end of this month. Elsewhere, a Bloomberg report states that Iran has seized an oil tanker shortly after it passed the Strait of Hormuz; the Marshall Island-flagged tanker, Talara, was seized in the Gulf of Oman. On board is high-sulfur gasoil from the UAE’s port of Hamriyah, which was loaded in October. Iran has yet to acknowledge or officially comment on the incident. In Britain, the Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation has paused sanctions that will permit Bulgaria’s Burgas refinery (owned by Russia’s Lukoil) to resume business with firms and banks. The granted special license allows payments and economic resources to pass between two Bulgarian entities under existing or new contracts and is set to expire on 14 February 2026. A Reuters source has reportedly claimed that the US is expected to issue a similar license later today, though no official statements have been made. In other news, Russia’s Lukoil has stated that it is in talks with potential buyers of its foreign assets, saying that the “specific deal will be announced after the final agreements have been reached and the necessary regulatory approvals have been obtained.” No information on the potential buyer(s) was detailed in the Reuters report. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.41/bbl and $1.01/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’26 Brent Futures contract fell this afternoon to $63.02/bbl at 16:06 GMT, before recovering to $63.30/bbl at 16:59 BST. At 17:30 BST (time of writing) prices had softened to $63.15/bbl. In the news, Lukoil faces US sanctions pressure, forcing quick action as deals risk being blocked before the 21 November deadline. Sanctions have disrupted operations in Iraq, Finland, and Bulgaria, with a planned asset sale to Gunvor blocked. Bidders are circling foreign assets, including KazMunayGas’s interest in Karachaganak and Shell’s bid for deepwater blocks in Ghana and Nigeria. Egypt and Moldova are also involved targets. Reuters analysts warn proceeds could be frozen or assets seized under trusteeship if sold now. In other news, Russia’s oil processing fell 3% this year as refineries used spare capacity to offset Ukraine’s drone attacks, which targeted 17 major refineries. Even with 20% offline at the peak, refining volume dropped about 6% to 5.1 mb/d. Refineries operated below capacity, restarting spare units and repairing damaged ones quickly. Western sanctions hinder spare parts, but Russia pursued domestic production and Chinese imports to keep repairs moving, though at higher costs and longer timelines. South Sudan’s petroleum ministry says it has asked for $2.5 Bn in oil-backed loans from two international firms, a sum larger than the government’s annual budget and about the UN’s estimate of loans received since 2011. The letters were sent late last month; no funds have been transferred. The requests propose repaying the loans within 54 months of disbursement, with $1 Bn from ONGC Nile Ganga B.V. and $1.5 Bn from CNPC, tied to crude oil entitlements controlled by the national oil company. Finally, the front-month Jan/Feb and 6-month Jan/Jul spreads are at $0.36/bbl and $0.66/bbl respectively.

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract slipped this afternoon, from $64.50/bbl at 13:00 GMT to $62.80/bbl at 16:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, an OPEC report has forecast that global supply in 2026 will match demand, marking a shift from its previous projections of a supply deficit. The report details that the producer group expects global oil demand to rise by 1.3mb/d this year and at a slightly faster rate in 2026. Elsewhere, President Rumen Radev of Bulgaria has vetoed legislation that would enable the government to seize Lukoil’s Burgas refinery and sell it to shield it from US sanctions. In a statement, Radev has said that the application of the law has been expanded dangerously, though parliament may override his veto. In Russia, seaborne oil product exports remained largely unchanged this month compared to September, as refineries completed their seasonal maintenance, according to a Reuters report. While overall volumes were steady this month, particular flows were disrupted due to US sanctions and continued drone attacks. In other news, Reuters has reported that Russia and Kazakhstan have agreed to strengthen their partnership in the oil sector following talks between the nations’ respective presidents. However, no particular details were given during Kazakh President Tokayev’s televised remarks. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.25/bbl and $0.44/bbl, respectively.