Crude

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract has risen this afternoon, from $64.34/bbl at 15:29 GMT to $65.27/bbl at 16:30 GMT. Prices have since eased to $65.05/bbl at 17:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters has reported that Venezuela’s oil exports have declined to 808kb/d (-26% m/m), after reaching five-year highs in September. According to state firm PDVSA, the country’s Russian light crude and naphtha imports fell by 105kb/d, reducing inventories of diluents and blend crudes. Elsewhere, Morgan Stanley has revised its Brent crude forecast for the first half of 2026, citing OPEC+’s decision to halt quota increases in Q1 2026 and Western sanctions on Russian oil. Elsewhere, ExxonMobil Chief Executive Darren Woods has told Reuters that the company would be forced to exit its operations in Europe if the EU does not agree to ease its sustainability measures. Furthermore, Italy’s Eni and Malaysia’s Petronas are combining their upstream assets in Indonesia and Malaysia in an equally owned joint venture, according to an Eni statement. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 are at $0.47/bbl and $1/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’26 Brent futures rose to a high of $65.15/bbl at 13.06 GMT before it softened to see support at $64.25/bbl around 16.15 GMT before it inched up to $64.72/bbl at 17.30 GMT (time of writing). President Trump denied considering military strikes inside Venezuela, contradicting his earlier remarks. The US has recently increased its military presence in the Caribbean, soon to expand with the Gerald Ford carrier strike group. It remains unclear whether Trump ruled out future strikes or simply said no decision had been made. Elsewhere, OPEC+ is likely to agree on another modest output hike for December as the group aims to regain market share despite predictions of a supply glut next year. According to Reuters, the hike will likely mirror the group’s last increase of 137kb/d. In Bulgaria, the country’s parliament has temporarily banned the export of some fuels, particularly diesel and jet fuel, after US sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.45/bbl and $0.71/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract has marginally risen this afternoon, from $64.23/bbl at 13:00 GMT to $64.37/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In a Bloomberg TV interview, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the US is prepared to increase oil and gas exports to China if the country reduces its Russian energy purchases. Elsewhere, according to a presidential memo seen by Reuters, Nigeria has imposed a 15% import duty on petrol and diesel. According to Reuters, the Nigerian government aims to safeguard its investments in local refining by limiting the entry of cheaper fuel. Its state-owned oil company, NPCC, is also reportedly seeking to revive three state refineries (combined capacity of 445kbd) that have been idle for years. The Warri, Port Harcourt, and Kaduna refineries are undergoing technical and commercial review by NNPC, according to group CEO Bashir Bayo Ojulari via X. In other news, Chinese offshore crude and gas producer CNOOC Ltd has reported a 12.2% decline in net profit for Q3 y/y; PetroChina has also reported a fall in Q3 net profits, down 3.9% y/y, per Reuters. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.45/bbl and $0.71/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract has risen this afternoon, from $64.37/bbl at 13:00 GMT to $65.02/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters has reported that India’s HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd has suspended Russian oil purchases after new US sanctions. In the US, a Treasury Department post has confirmed the authorisation of a Russia-related general license; the license reportedly grants permission for transactions between Rosneft Deutschland GmbH and RN Refining & Marketing GmbH. According to the post, the authorisation is granted until 26 April 2026. In India, Reuters has reported that state-held Indian Oil Corporation Ltd is preparing to launch a joint trading venture with Vitol to trade crude oil and fuels in 2026. Reuters sources say the joint venture will be initially based in Singapore and will operate for 5-7 years. Elsewhere, Kpler reported that an Aframax tanker carrying Rosneft crude, bound for India, reversed course shortly after leaving the Russian coast and is now reported to be idle in the Baltic Sea. According to Kpler and Vortexa data, on board is 730kb of Russian Urals crude initially set for delivery in mid-November. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.48/bbl and $0.77/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’25 Brent futures contract has fallen this afternoon, from $64.94/bbl at 14:00 GMT to $64.37/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Slovakia’s Slovnaft refinery (capacity 4.8mmt) has stated that Croatian pipeline operator JANAF has cut non-Russian crude deliveries, citing technical reasons. A spokesperson for the Slovak refinery has described this move as one that will “jeopardise” the flow of non-Russian crude to Central Europe, calling it a breach of contract on JANAF’s part. Elsewhere, Reuters has reported that Russian ESPO-blend crude oil has fallen to a discount against Brent at delivery in Chinese ports for the first time in roughly a year. According to Reuters, this is attributed to new Western sanctions and falling import quotas for Chinese refineries, which in turn reduce demand. In other news, Oil India Limited has about $300mn in dividends from its stakes in Russian oil fields at Russian banks that it is unable to withdraw, per Indian Oil Minister Ranjit Rath. U.S. sanctions on JSC Vankorneft and Taas-Yuryakh Neftegazodobycha LLC, where Rosneft holds just above 50% of shares, are facing complicated fund transfers. According to Rath, the company is seeking legal options. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.58/bbl and $1.20/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’25 Brent futures contract has traded rangebound this afternoon, seeing lows of $65.66/bbl at 12:00 GMT and highs of $66.33/bbl at 15:00 GMT. Prices have eased since then, settling to $65.84/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). According to Reuters, eight OPEC+ nations are reportedly inclined to implement another modest increase in oil output for December. The group is likely to increase December output targets by another 137kb/d, per Reuters sources. Elsewhere, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is set to discuss US sanctions on Russian oil companies with US President Trump next week in Washington. Last week, PM Orban stated that Hungary was actively seeking ways to circumvent US sanctions, though he did not provide any details. This meeting comes as the US has reportedly been increasing pressure on Hungary to cut its reliance on Russian oil imports, according to Matthew Whitaker, the US Ambassador to NATO. In India, the Economic Times has reported that the country’s imports reached 5mb/d last month, a 1.7% increase from August. The report, citing government data, also noted that Russian exports of crude oil to India declined by 8.4% over the last three months amid shrinking discounts. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month and 6-month spreads are at $0.72/bbl and $1.99/bbl, respectively.