Crude oil derivatives are essential to the global economy, powering transportation, manufacturing, and financial markets.
Find live prices on Flux Terminal. Trade Crude cost-free on Onyx Markets.
View: Cautiously Bearish  Target Price: $62-64/bbl  Brent crude futures returned to two-week highs last week, where prices saw an outsized rally as the US imposed sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil for the first time. Prices reached highs
In the week ending 24 October Refinery Margins rose across all regions: Asian M1 Margins up to $11.61/bbl (+$0.64/bbl w/w), European M1 Margins up to $10.05/bbl (+$0.97/bbl w/w), and US Margins up to $15.18/bbl (+$1.09/bbl w/w).
Asian margins were driven up by Sing Gasoil Brent Crack and Dubai Gasoil Crack which increased by +$4.43/bbl w/w and +$5.24/bbl w/w respectively, the Kero Dubai Crack also increased by +$2.19/bbl w/w.
In Europe Gasoil crack was also the biggest mover, increasing by +$5.7/bbl w/w
The Dec’25 Brent futures contract eased this afternoon, falling from $66.73/bbl at 1:00 BST to $66.08 at 14:00 BST before meeting support and recovering to $66.38/bbl at 18:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, BP has reported that its Whiting, Indiana refinery (capacity 440kb/d) experienced an external power outage. Power was restored shortly after all personnel had been evacuated. A spokesperson declined to provide further details on the refinery’s operational status. In Russia, a Ukrainian drone strike has halted a CDU-4 (capacity 80kb/d) at the Ryazan plant, southeast of Moscow. The refinery processed 264kb of crude in 2023 and is Russia’s fourth-largest refinery. Elsewhere, Reuters reports that India’s Reliance Industries will comply with Western sanctions on Russia while continuing relationships with existing oil suppliers. The company currently has a long-term agreement to purchase 500kb/d from Russia’s Rosneft. In other news, Bulgaria is preparing measures to secure stable oil supplies following US sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil, who operate Bulgaria’s largest oil refiner, Burgas (capacity 190kb/d). In Italy, energy giant Eni reported a better-than-expected net Q3 profit of $1.4bn. The company increased oil and gas production by 6% y/y to 1.76mboe/d and raised outlook on cash flow generation for 2025. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Dec/Jan’26 and Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.73/bbl and $2.34/bbl, respectively.
In this edition, we take a look at the Nov’25 Sing 0.5% Crack
In this edition, we take a look at the Nov’25 EBOB Crack.
The Dec’25 Brent futures contract has risen this afternoon, from $65.19/bbl at 14:00 BST to $66.07/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). Crucially, prices have met resistance at the 50-day moving average. In the news, Reuters has reported that OPEC is prepared to raise production by reducing its oil output cuts to address market shortfalls following new US sanctions on Russia. In China, state oil majors have halted seaborne Russian oil purchases following US sanctions. According to Reuters, PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, and Zhenhua Oil are amongst those who will limit short-term deals with the Russian oil giants. While the sanctioned Russian firms, Rosneft and Lukoil, mostly sell oil to China via intermediaries, Chinese firms are still concerned over possible sanction effects. Related, Berlin is seeking an exemption from US sanctions on Rosneft, which has a German arm. Banks have said that sanctions may stop them from conducting crucial energy business with the Russian-owned German arm, which supplies oil to petrol pumps and airports in the country. In other news, Libya’s National Oil Corporation has said that Algerian state energy firm Sonatech has resumed oil and gas exploration drilling in the Ghadames basin. Exploration initially ceased more than 10 years ago due to unstable security conditions. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.71/bbl and $2.03/bbl, respectively.
Another round of sanctions was slapped on Russian entities from the US, and the market responded in kind and reversed its weekly losses to test the 50-day moving average and tussle around the $65.00/bbl level, with monthly highs of $66.60/bbl within sight. Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation and Putin ally Dmitry Medvedev has come out swinging in response, labelling this as an ‘act of war’, but Putin was unsurprisingly calm in his response, dropping some quotes blaming the US for the delay in negotiations. Trump has said that the sanctions are ‘tremendous’ and has reiterated that India has said it will cut Russian imports, and he wouldn’t lie about that… Gold’s got some sparkle left, after being dented by $250 on Tuesday, it bounced back $68 to $4,133.40/oz. A strong dollar and rising yields didn’t stop the comeback as it’s still up 6.5% this month and a dazzling 52% this year, proof investors aren’t giving up on their favourite shiny safety net.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Dec’25 Brent futures contract rose this afternoon, from $62.28/bbl at 13:00 BST to $62.95/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Reuters has reported that a Chevron-operated consortium developing the Kazakh oilfield, Tengiz, will restart oil exports via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline this November. The pipeline runs through Georgia to Turkey. Exports were suspended in July due to chloride contamination; according to Reuters, the consortium is expected to export 1mb next month. Elsewhere, JODI data showed that Saudi Arabian crude exports in August had risen to 6.4mb/d, the highest level in six months. In Russia, LSEG data has shown that 750kb of a mix of ARCO oil and gas condensate are set to be delivered to Syria’s Banias port. While the buying and selling parties are unclear, Reuters reported that the mix was supplied by Russian producers Gazprom Neft and Novatek. Also in Russia, the top army brass has said that would seek reservists to defend oil infrastructure amidst Ukrainian drone strikes. According to Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, there are some 2 million men in the reserves, from which the government would call upon. In other news, ExxonMobil has said that it has landed a deal with the Gabon government to explore for oil and gas off its coast. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.31/bbl and $0.30/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’25 Brent futures contract fell this afternoon, reaching $61.73/bbl at 13:45 BST before falling to $60.37/bbl at 15:00 BST. Prices found support at this level, recovering to $61.35/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Reuters has reported that Chevron and Shell have cut oil and gas exports from a Kazakh field after a Ukrainian drone strike damaged a supporting gas plant in the Orenburg region of Russia. This development makes this the first Ukrainian strike to impact Western oil operations. In other news, LSEG data shows that Russia’s Russneft has shipped its first oil cargo to the new Kulevi oil refinery in Georgia (initial capacity 24kb/d), as part of its attempts to diversity exports amidst Western sanctions. In Spain, gas grid operator Enagas has reported a 37% increase in gas demand between January and September, following a severe blackout in late April. According to Enagas, Spain’s total gas demand has been up 6.6% y/y. In Hungary, MOL oil and gas company reported a fire at its Danube refinery (capacity 165kb/d); no injuries occurred and disrupted crude units have already been gradually restarted. The company is unsure of the extent of damages and is set to begin assessing over the next 24 hours. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.24/bbl and $0.03/bbl, respectively.
There has been immense pressure in the Dated complex in the last week. The implied physical differential curve is negative until March. This type of weakness has not been seen since COVID. The physical windows have been really quiet. Physical windows have been really quiet; everyone is offering, but there has not been any real interest in buying it from them. Glencore offered Midland on 20 Oct, bringing the diff down to around -20.5c. The big names we have seen act as almost perpetual bulls may be feeling pretty sore.
In the week ending 10 October Refinery Margins rose across all regions: Asian M1 Margins up to $10.64/bbl (+$0.55/bbl w/w), European M1 Margins up to $8.03/bbl (+$0.35/bbl w/w), and US Margins down to $13.68/bbl (+$0.49/bbl w/w).
Asian Cracks were driven up by 92 Brent and Dubai Cracks which increased by +$1.26/bbl w/w and +$1.22/bbl w/w respectively, the Kero Dubai Crack also increased by +$1.18/bbl w/w. Asian Cracks also saw some drawback, with Sing 0.5 Crack falling by -$0.95/bbl w/w.
In Europe EBOB and 3.5 Bgs Cracks drove up the margins: the first up by +$0.98/bbl w/w, the second up by +$1.20/bbl w/w.
The Dec’25 Brent futures contract battled with the $60/bbl level this afternoon, dipping to $60.11/bbl at 14:00 BST before recovering slightly to $60.63/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Reuters have reported a second Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery in the last month. The refinery has suspended its 139kb/d CDU along with another primary unit following the attacks on Sunday. In the Russian Orenburg region, according to Reuters, another Ukrainian drone attack struck the Orenburg oil and gas plant, forcing neighbouring Kazakhstan to reduce its Karachaganak oil and gas refinery (capacity 263kb/d) production by 25-30%; Orenburg itself has suspended its intake of Kazakh gas. Elsewhere, Kurdistan crude oil exports have reached 205kb/d since restarting exports in late September. According to local media, fragile deals between the Iraqi government, the KRG, and foreign firms could jeopardise new exports; the federal government in Baghdad has allegedly violated its agreement by failing to pay international oil companies their owned financial dues to cover operational costs. In Brazil, Petrobras has announced its authorisation to conduct exploratory drilling in the Foz do Amazonas region; drilling is expected to begin immediately and last five months. At this time, no oil production has begun. BP has additionally announced its own discovery in the Orange basin of Namibia, encountering reservoirs with favourable petrophysical properties and no verified water contact. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.11 and -$0.30/bbl, respectively.
View: Neutral/Cautiously Bearish Target Price: $60-62/bbl Last week, the Dec’25 Brent crude futures extended its decline, recording its third consecutive weekly loss as it fell to the low $60s level. The oil glut has gripped market narratives, with oil at
The Dec’25 Brent futures contract has risen this afternoon, from $60.68/bbl at 12:00 BST to $61.17/bbl at 17:00 BST. In the news, a morning fire at BP’s Whiting refinery in Indiana (capacity 440kb/d) has been extinguished, resulting in multiple units taken offline. BP has yet to further detail the extent of the refinery’s operational status. In other news, Reuters has reported that Western pressure on Asian purchasing of Russian energy could limit India’s oil imports in December. The report also casted doubt on the likeliness of Japan ceasing Sakhalin LNG shipments, given the country’s dependency on the Russian source. In India, industry sources told Reuters that they have yet to see cuts to Russian crude oil imports and have not asked refiners to cut imports of Russian crude yet. This sits in contrast to US President Trump’s earlier comments this week, where he claimed that Indian Prime Minister Modi had agreed to half Russian crude imports. In China, state-owned oil company CNPC has continued to produce and export oil from a recently expanded Nigerian oil field, despite continuing disputes with local authorities. Military leadership expelled Chinese expatriates earlier this year, insisting that CNPC hire more local workers and address pay gaps. Despite this, according to Reuters sources, total export sales from the field have reached $2bn and capacity has increased to 900kb/d. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.15/bbl and -$0.19/bbl, respectively.
