Crude

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Dated Brent report cover

Dated Brent Report – Back to Homeos-Dated

The Dated physical differential feels more supported after a choppy time last week, as it was not easily settled at the lower levels. There was strong buying in the front end, which allowed the differential to be priced at around +35c/bbl at the time of writing, which is more within the ‘normal’ range. In the physical, there was mostly WTI Midland being traded by a slew of different players, although a major filled a VLCC with Forties to send East. This is interesting considering how high the Dated/Dubai differential is. M1 Dated/Dubai is almost $2.00/bbl at the time of writing on 27 May, which is around its highest level since August 2024.

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European Window cover

European Window: Brent Rallies $65.01/bbl

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract initially dropped from $64.58/bbl down to $63.41/bbl at 13:10 BST. Prices then rallied all afternoon to $65.01/bbl but slightly came off to $64.72 at 17:15 BST (time of writing). In the news, US President Donald Trump proposed a 50% tariff on EU imports starting June 1. EU and US trade officials are set to discuss the issue later today. The proposed tariffs triggered sharp declines in European stocks and bond yields, with economists warning of a serious escalation in trade tensions. The EU is considering countermeasures but prefers a negotiated solution. In other news, Suriname is aiming to expand its offshore oil exploration with increased interest from majors like Shell, TotalEnergies, and Petronas. TotalEnergies is leading the $10.5B GranMorgu project, expected to produce first oil in 2028 from reserves of over 750mb. The project includes a 220kb/d FPSO and is forecast to boost Suriname’s GDP by 55% in 2028, according to the IMF. Iraq’s federal government said Friday that recent energy deals signed between US companies and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) violate the constitution and must be approved by Baghdad. This comes after the KRG formalized two major agreements with HKN Energy and WesternZagros, targeting development of the Topkhana block, estimated to hold 5 trillion cubic feet of gas and 900mb of oil. Iraq’s Oil Ministry emphasized it has no issue with US firms operating in Iraq, but only through official federal channels, not directly with the KRG. Finally the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 Brent spreads are at $0.59/bbl and $1.63/bbl respectively

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COT Deep Dive – Gasoline E/W

In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.

In this edition, we take a look at the Jun’25 gasoline E/W.

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European Window cover

European Window: Brent Above $64.00/bbl

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally all afternoon to $65.95/bbl at 17:35 BST before falling off to $64.42/bbl at 18:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Indonesia is questioning a number Singapore-based trading firms as part of a $12B corruption probe into oil imports by state energy firm Pertamina between 2018 and 2023. Several Pertamina executives have been arrested, and authorities may question the firms in Singapore after failed summonses. Elliott Investment Management, now holding 5% of BP, is pressing for a quick replacement for outgoing Chair Helge Lund to drive a strategic revamp. The activist fund favours candidates with fossil fuel or mining backgrounds to restore investor confidence. BP may also need a new CEO, with former BP exec and current Rolls-Royce CEO Tufan Erginbilgic seen as a strong option. In other news, Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said oil exploration near the mouth of the Amazon River should proceed, but warned it must not delay the country’s shift to clean energy. The region is seen as Brazil’s most promising for new oil discoveries, yet drilling is controversial due to its location in the Amazon basin .Haddad emphasized the need to reduce reliance on oil through investments in alternative energy, reaffirming Brazil’s leadership in the global energy transition. According to Reuters, a potential US-Iran nuclear deal could lift sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports, flooding global markets and threatening China’s independent “teapot” refineries. These small refineries rely heavily on discounted and sanctioned Iranian crude. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.72/bbl and $2.02/bbl respectively.

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Trader Meeting Notes

Trader Meeting Notes: Big, Beautiful Brent

It’s been a remarkably flat week in Brent. Jul’25 is around $64.00/bbl at the time of writing on 22 May, almost exactly where it was this time last week. But what has changed? It feels like a lot has changed. OPEC+ is considering a major output hike of 411kb/d for July (three times the amount initially planned), matching increases in May and June. Brent gapped up around 60c on Tuesday as CNN reported Israel is getting ready to possibly strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, according to several American officials. This comes at a tense moment, as the Trump administration is still trying to negotiate a diplomatic agreement with Tehran. This report of Israel’s strike on Iran was either not believed or not cared about, likely the former, as nuclear strikes would probably perforate even the most headline-fatigued trader among us. If Brent is the calm and flat body of the swan, the product cracks are the legs frantically kicking underneath it. Margins sold off this week around $1.50/bbl initially but have recovered, with the Euro margin at $8.45/bbl at the time of writing.

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COT Report: Maintaining the Margins

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

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European Window cover

European Window: Brent Falls to $64.97/bbl

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract initially climbed to $66.30/bbl at 13:16 BST but retreated throughout the afternoon to $64.97/bbl at17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, the EIA reported that US crude and fuel inventories unexpectedly rose last week. Crude stocks increased by 1.3mb to 443.2 million, contrary to forecast. Crude imports hit a six-week high at 2.58mb/d, while refinery runs and utilization slightly increased. Gasoline stocks grew by 816kb, despite expectations for a decline, and gasoline demand fell to 8.6 mb/d. Distillate stocks also rose by 580kb, just missing expectations. In other news, Continental Resources estimates Turkey’s Diyarbakır Basin holds 6.1 billion barrels of shale oil, equal to 17 years of current imports. A joint venture with Turkey’s TPAO and TransAtlantic Petroleum aims to develop the region, which may also hold up to 20 TCF of gas. South Africa plans to wait for global oil prices to reach around $100/bbl before selling more of its strategic crude reserves, said Godfrey Moagi, CEO of the state-owned South African National Petroleum Company. South Africa aims to generate about 4B rand ($223 million) from reserve sales by March 2026 but will hold off unless prices rise. The nation’s strategic reserves stand at roughly 7.7 mb, with some sales already made to local firms Sasol and TotalEnergies’ local unit. Finally the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.53/bbl and $1.46/bbl respectively.

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Dubai Market Report – Where’s the Flow?

In our previous report, we anticipated a prolonged period of de‑risking in the Brent/Dubai complex, with prices oscillating within a broad band, and that’s exactly what we’ve seen. Over the past fortnight, the Jun’25 Brent/Dubai crack traded between -$0.25/bbl and +$0.80/bbl, settling at $0.55/bbl as of 20 May. There has been a recent void of trade house positioning in Brent/Dubai, with price action driven by smaller screens and hedging flow. Dubai and Murban spreads were also supported this week, which is consistent with the seasonal rally we typically see in spreads as refinery maintenance winds down and summer fuel demand picks up.

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European Window cover

European Window: Brent Bounces Back to $65.53/bbl

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally to $65.65/bbl at 14:21 BST before falling off to $54.94/bbl at 14:51 BST. Prices then bounced back to $65.53/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Kazakhstan’s oil output rose 2% in May to 1.86 mb/d. The increase follows April’s 3% drop but still exceeds the country’s OPEC+ quota of 1.486 mb/d. Kazakhstan blames its repeated overproduction on the difficulty of curbing output from Western-led projects like Tengiz. The energy ministry insists it remains committed to OPEC+ and will offset excess output by 2026 but prioritizes national interests. In other news, Ukraine is urging the G7 to lower the price cap on Russian seaborne oil from $60/bbl to $30/bbl to tighten economic pressure on Moscow, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha said. This comes as the EU and UK announced new sanctions targeting Russia’s “shadow fleet” and financial networks helping it evade existing restrictions. While the EU is considering a revised cap of $50/bbl, Ukraine wants a more aggressive cut. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) warned on Tuesday that an above-average Atlantic hurricane season could disrupt oil production and refining along the Gulf Coast. With around 17 named storms forecast, weather-related shutdowns are increasingly likely. More than 1mb/d of refining capacity, about 5% of US petroleum consumption, could be preemptively halted in the path of major storms. AccuWeather expects 3 to 6 storms to directly hit the US this season, which runs June through November. Finaly, at the time of writing, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.62/bbl and $1.67/bbl respectively.

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European Window cover

European Window: Brent Falls Back to $64.42/bbl

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally all afternoon to $65.95/bbl at 17:35 BST before falling off to $64.42/bbl at 18:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Indonesia is questioning a number Singapore-based trading firms as part of a $12B corruption probe into oil imports by state energy firm Pertamina between 2018 and 2023. Several Pertamina executives have been arrested, and authorities may question the firms in Singapore after failed summonses. Elliott Investment Management, now holding 5% of BP, is pressing for a quick replacement for outgoing Chair Helge Lund to drive a strategic revamp. The activist fund favours candidates with fossil fuel or mining backgrounds to restore investor confidence. BP may also need a new CEO, with former BP exec and current Rolls-Royce CEO Tufan Erginbilgic seen as a strong option. In other news, Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said oil exploration near the mouth of the Amazon River should proceed, but warned it must not delay the country’s shift to clean energy. The region is seen as Brazil’s most promising for new oil discoveries, yet drilling is controversial due to its location in the Amazon basin .Haddad emphasized the need to reduce reliance on oil through investments in alternative energy, reaffirming Brazil’s leadership in the global energy transition. According to Reuters, a potential US-Iran nuclear deal could lift sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports, flooding global markets and threatening China’s independent “teapot” refineries. These small refineries rely heavily on discounted and sanctioned Iranian crude. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.72/bbl and $2.02/bbl respectively.

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Brent Forecast: 19th May 2025

Turning the vol down Over the week to 13 May, front-month Brent futures rallied to $66.55/bbl, their highest level since 28 April. ICE COT data for that week shows money managers added nearly 50 mb to their net long position,

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Refinery Margins Report

Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.

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ETFs Report

Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.

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European Window cover

European Window: Brent Rallies to $65.47/bbl

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rangebound between $64.60/bbl and $65.02/bbl in the early afternoon. Prices then rallied to $65.47/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, the first round of talks between Russia and Ukraine conclude. President Zelenskiy dismissed Russia’s terms and coordinated with US President Trump and European leaders for a stronger response. Russia said talks could continue, but President Putin declined a direct meeting with Zelenskiy. In other news, Nigerian oil firm Renaissance Energy has halted production into the Trans Niger Pipeline following an operational incident on May 6 that caused an oil spill in the B-Dere community in Ogoniland. The pipeline has a capacity of around 450kb/d and has now seen two incidents in as many months. China has become the top buyer of Canadian oil shipped through the newly expanded Trans Mountain pipeline. Since full operations began in June 2024, Canada has exported an average of 207kb/d to China via the pipeline, up from just 7kb/d in the previous decade. In contrast, US imports from the pipeline averaged 173kb/d. The US is intensifying efforts to block Iran’s oil exports to China by cracking down on financial and logistical loopholes. According to Bloomberg, US Treasury officials visited Hong Kong in April to warn local banks against facilitating transactions linked to Iranian oil sales, especially those involving front companies and non-dollar currencies. Finally, the front month Jul/Aug spread is at $0.61/bbl and the 6-month spread Jul/Jan’26 is at $1.57/bbl.

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COT Deep Dive – FEI propane

In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Jun’25 Far East propane Index (C3 FEI)
In this edition, we take a look at the Q3’25 Gasoline EBOB Crack.

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