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See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Aug’25 Brent Futures contract initially rallied to $69.26/bbl at 14:08 BST but quickly fell off to $67.78/bbl. Prices have since fallen further to $66.93/bbl at 17:50 BST (time of writing). The drop in price comes after US President Trump stated that China could now resume buying Iranian oil. Further fuelling today’s bearish sentiment was the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. President Trump later accused both sides of violating it, noting Israeli strikes and Iranian retaliation. Explosions were reported in Tehran despite Trump’s claim he had urged Israel to hold back. Barclays noted that without a broader regional escalation, supply disruptions remain unlikely. In other news, US oil and gas producer Coterra Energy will keep its rig count steady at nine in the Permian Basin, CEO Tom Jorden said Tuesday. Speaking at the J.P. Morgan Energy, Power & Renewables Conference, Jorden noted the company had considered reducing to seven rigs in the second half of 2025, fearing a price collapse. EU diplomats expect to reach a deal this week on a new round of sanctions against Russia, though Slovakia and Hungary are pushing for concessions on Russian energy. The proposed 18th sanctions package includes measures targeting Russia’s energy revenues, banks, and shadow tanker fleet, aiming to pressure Moscow into a Ukraine ceasefire. Slovakia, citing economic impact, wants exemptions for landlocked countries, capped transit fees, and guarantees against shortages. Finally, the front/month Aug/Sep and the 6-month Aug/ Feb’26 spreads are at $0.75/bbl and $2.08/bbl respectively.
The Aug’25 Brent Futures contract fell off to $75.99/bbl at 15:22 BST before recovering to $77.30/bbl at 17:30 BST. Prices then dropped to $75.18/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). The price drops comes after reports of Iran launching attacks against US bases in Qatar. In the news, US President Donald Trump called for lower oil prices following recent US and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities that stoked fears of a supply disruption. “Everyone, keep oil prices down, I’m watching! You’re playing into the hands of the enemy, don’t do it,” Trump posted in all caps on Truth Social. He also urged the Department of Energy to “drill, baby, drill,” prompting Energy Secretary Chris Wright to respond on X: “We’re on it!”. Venezuela’s Cardon refinery, the country’s second-largest with a capacity of 310kBrent/Dubai was shut down on 23 June due to a power outage, according to two sources familiar with the matter. Operated by state-owned PDVSA, the plant plays a key role in processing heavy crude from the Orinoco Belt. The blackout began early in the day and did not impact the nearby 645kBrent/Dubai Amuay refinery. PDVSA is transferring equipment between the two sites to restore power. In other news, US electricity prices surged to their highest levels since winter as a severe heat wave swept across the eastern half of the country, straining regional power grids. Next-day power prices at the PJM West hub in Pennsylvania soared over 430% to $211/MWh, while New England prices rose 180% to $161/MWh. PJM Interconnection expects power demand to peak at 160,000 MW Monday, prompting alerts for generators to operate at full capacity. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep spread is at $1.38/bbl and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spread is at $5.11/bbl.
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
The Aug’25 Brent crude futures rose from $76.02/bbl at 13:29 BST to $76.91/bbl at 14:52 BST and softened to $76.60/bbl at 17:10 BST (time of writing). The UK is withdrawing embassy staff from Iran as a precaution amid ongoing exchanges of fire between Israel and Iran, including new Iranian strikes and Israeli attacks on targets in Tehran. British, French, and German foreign ministers are meeting their Iranian counterparts in Geneva to help ease tensions. The Trump administration announced new sanctions targeting Iran and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis, citing efforts to disrupt the supply of sensitive machinery and illicit oil trading networks. The Iran-related sanctions hit eight entities, one individual, and one vessel, including Hong Kong-based Unico Shipping Co. Ltd and Athena Shipping Co. Ltd, for supporting Tehran’s ballistic missile and UAV programs. Separately, the Treasury sanctioned four individuals, 12 entities, and two vessels linked to smuggling operations that fund the Houthis. The EU has decided not to lower the Russian oil price cap from $60 to $45/bbl due to rising volatility from the Israel-Iran conflict. The proposal was set for discussion by EU foreign ministers, but diplomats said the unstable Middle East situation made it too risky. G7 countries also agreed to delay action amid fluctuating oil prices. Residents of Nigeria’s Bille and Ogale communities will go to trial in 2027 over oil pollution claims against Shell and its former Nigerian subsidiary. The lawsuit, filed in 2015, alleges years of environmental damage, including contaminated drinking water. The communities seek compensation and cleanup of the oil spills. Finally, the front (Aug/Sep) and 6-month (Aug/Feb) Brent futures spreads are at $1.49/bbl and $5.27/bbl, respectively.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Jul’25 CP (Saudi Aramco) propane
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Jul’25 Naphtha East/West (MOPJ – NWE Naphtha).
On Wednesday, JP Morgan said their estimated Brent fair value stood at $66/bbl, considering the low probability of the Strait of Hormuz entirely shutting down. The M1 Brent futures, however, rallied to $76/bbl this day and now stands at $78.65/bbl (at the time of writing on 19 Jun). While we also see little chance of a complete shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz…
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Aug’25 Brent crude futures saw a bullish performance on Tuesday afternoon, surpassing $75/bbl, peaking at $75.66/bbl at 15:51 BST and traded at $75.30/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). Fears of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have kept prices supported, as Trump signals he may consider direct action to halt Iran’s uranium enrichment amid rising military risks and limited diplomatic progress. Israel has intensified strikes on Iranian targets, including nuclear infrastructure, while the U.S. accelerates its regional military buildup, fuelling concerns that Washington may be drawn directly into the conflict. In its monthly oil report, the IEA noted that while geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, have intensified, oil markets remain well supplied heading into 2025, with global demand growth revised slightly lower and inventories continuing to build. The EU has proposed a phased ban on Russian oil and gas imports by end-2027, aiming to cut energy ties with Moscow while allowing time for contract exits and alternative supply planning. The U.S. is expected to object to a UN aviation council recommendation on sustainable jet fuel criteria, arguing it unfairly favours Brazilian corn ethanol and risks disadvantaging U.S. producers in a growing global SAF market. Finally, the front (Aug/Sep) and 6-month (Aug/Feb) Brent futures spreads are at $1.40/bbl and $4.75/bbl respectively.
The front-month Brent futures contract gapped lower from $73.55/bbl at 14:50 BST to $71.15/bbl at 15:00 BST. Prices edged close to the $70/bbl psychological support level around 15:30 BST, where they met support and climbed to $72.80/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing).
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
The Aug’25 Brent futures fell to $73.92/bbl before bouncing back to $74.95/bbl. Prices fell for the rest of the afernoon to $73.49/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, The IEA stated it was prepared to release oil from emergency reserves if Israel’s attack on Iran caused significant market disruptions. The agency emphasized that global supplies remained stable, with 1.2B barrels available in strategic reserves. OPEC sharply criticized the IEA’s remarks, accusing it of stoking unnecessary fear and insisting there was no need for such measures. While Iran’s energy infrastructure hasn’t been hit, markets remain anxious about potential escalation, particularly risks to the Strait of Hormuz or a repeat of the 2019 drone attacks on Saudi facilities. Analysts warn future price trends will depend on whether Iran targets regional energy infrastructure in retaliation. In other news, analysts at Goldman Sachs and Citi believe Israel’s strikes on Iran are unlikely to significantly disrupt global oil supply. Goldman has raised its geopolitical risk premium but still expects Brent and WTI prices to fall to $59/bbl – $55/bbl in Q4 2025, and $56/bbl – $52/bbl in 2026. Citi echoed this, saying sustained high prices are unlikely. However, Goldman warned that a worst-case scenario involving a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could push prices above $100/bbl. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spreads are at $1.39/bbl and $4.52/bbl respectively.
