Distillate fuels, including diesel and jet fuel, power transportation systems and industries worldwide, driving economic activity and global connectivity.
Find live prices on Flux Terminal. Trade distillates cost-free on Onyx Markets.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract strengthened this morning from $74.30/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $74.58/bbl at 10:50 GMT (time of writing). Price action was choppy this morning as traders adjust their positions in light of US President Trump’s victory in the US election. At the time of writing, Trump holds 277 of the 270 electoral votes required to win, while Harris holds a total of 224. In addition, prices were pressured by a much higher than expected 3.13mb build in US crude oil inventories, according to API data for the week to 01 Nov. In the news today, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards deputy chief Ali Fadavi stated that Tehran is prepared for a confrontation with Israel and would not rule out a preemptive strike by the US and Israel following Trump’s election win, according to the Times of Israel reposted in a note by Giovanni Staunovo. In other news, Iraq is expected to start delivering crude oil from Kurdistan to its state-owned company SOMO, with a $16/bbl rate set for foreign oil companies operating in Iraqi Kurdistan, as per Reuters. Deliveries of Kurdish crude oil were previously suspended for over a year amid a dispute between the central Iraqi government and Turkey over authorization of the deliveries. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.38/bbl and $1.48/bbl, respectively.
Jan’25 Brent futures flat price saw further support this afternoon, increasing from $75.35/bbl at 12:00 GMT up to $75.95/bbl at 17:30 GMT, before falling to $75.50/bbl around 18:00 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices were supported amid potential short covering and rebalancing of portfolios ahead of the US election, in addition to a sustained market reaction to OPEC delaying their December production hike until January. In the news today, Iranian crude oil supplied to China has reached its most expensive price in five years, with the discount of Iran Light crude to ICE Brent narrowing to below $4/bbl from between $5-6/bbl earlier this year, according to Reuters. This came as Iran’s cargo loadings slumped last month amid concerns that Israel would target Iranian energy facilities in their retaliatory missile attack.In other news, Marathon plans to operate its 13 refineries at 90% of combined capacity in Q4’24, amounting to production of 2.95mb/d, as per Reuters. Furthermore, Marathon’s Q3’24 profit beat Wall Street estimates on better-than-expected refining throughput of 3mb/d compared to the forecasted 2.84mb/d. Finally, state-run Oil India has missed its Q2’24 profit targets on lower crude prices and weak fuel demand, totalling around $218 million in comparison to analysts’ expectations of $222 million. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.40/bbl and $1.59/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract saw strength this morning, trading from $75.05/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $75.39/bbl at 10:45 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have been supported amid potential for Hurricane Rafael to disrupt 4mb/d of oil production in the US Gulf Coast, according to Reuters. In the news today, Russian oil and gas revenue has jumped 57% m/m in October to $12.35 billion, as per Russian finance ministry data. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg report shows Russia’s seaborne crude weekly exports for the week to 3 Nov dropped by 530kb/d, the biggest decline since early June. This came as Russia made no shipments from the Arctic port of Murmansk and only one shipment from Novorossiysk on the Black Sea. In other news, France’s foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot is expected travel to Israel on Wednesday to work towards a diplomatic end to the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. Barrot stated France would work with whoever wins the US election and that the US “plays an essential role in ending the Israeli-Arab conflict”. Finally, trading firms are projected to deliver an unusually large volume of about 5mb of Middle East crude oil to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) this month, as per Reuters. Vitol are to deliver the most crude to INE, about 3mb, including about 840kb of Abu Dhabi Murban crude and 2mb of Iraqi Basra Medium crude. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.43/bbl and $1.65/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract initially saw weakness this afternoon, trading from $75.25/bbl at 12:00 GMT down to $74.30/bbl around 15:50 GMT, before recovering to $75.15/bbl at 17:45 GMT (time of writing). Despite profit-taking flows, prices overall have been supported following the OPEC+ decision to delay a production hike for another month. In the news today, according to a Reuters survey, OPEC oil output was up 195kb/d in October m/m, with Libya posting the largest gain of up to 400kb/d. Crude oil production in Venezuela reached 860kb/d, the highest since at least 2020, while Iraq cut crude oil output by 120kb/d, amid lower exports and domestic consumption. In other news, developing Tropical Storm Rafael is projected to strengthen into a hurricane late Tuesday as it moves northwest from the Caribbean towards offshore oil production areas in the Gulf of Mexico, as per the US National Hurricane Center. Finally, according to Argus Media, Asia-Pacific refiners have increased their intake of US light sweet WTI for November loading, buying around 1.3mb/d of WTI loading compared to roughly 800kb/d in October and could remain keen buyers in December. Meanwhile, European demand for crude is expected to rebound in December following the end of autumn refinery maintenance, with Ekofisk adding around 60c/bbl relative to WTI since mid-October. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.42/bbl and $1.57/bbl, respectively.
After rallying at market open this week from $72.90/bbl on 01 Nov to $74.35/bbl last night, the Jan’25 Brent futures contract showed steady support this morning, climbing from $74.40/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $74.70/bbl just after 10:40 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices were elevated amid an OPEC+ decision on Sunday to extend its output cut of 2.2mb/d by another month, initially planning to increase production in December. In the news today, according to a Reuters report, Israel has officially notified the UN that it is cancelling the agreement that regulated relations with the UN relief organization for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) since 1967, fuelling concerns of a worsening humanitarian situation in Gaza. This came as Palestinian medics claimed Israeli airstrikes killed at least 31 people in the Gaza strip on Sunday. In other news, China’s refining output is set to fall to 14.7mb/d this quarter on thin margins and weak demand, in addition to maintaining lower run rates in Q1’25, as per Reuters. Finally, Eni has sold $1 billion worth of upstream offshore assets in Alaska to US private company Hilcorp, planning to raise €8 billion in net proceeds between 2024-2027 to fund the growth of its low-carbon units. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.41/bbl and $1.42/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract weakened this afternoon, moving from the $74.30/bbl level at 12:00 GMT down to $73.30/bbl at 17:30 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices sold-off 80c just after 14:20 GMT, declining to $73.47/bbl at 14:50 GMT, amid the release of US manufacturing PMI data at 14:00 GMT showing a contraction to 46.5 in October, compared to a forecast of 47.6. In the news today, according to a Bloomberg report, oil supplies from OPEC increased by 370kb/d to 29.9mb/d in October, with Libya adding 500kb/d after the end of the central bank feud and Iraq cutting 90kb/d. In other news, Venezuela’s oil exports have reached a four-year high, approaching 950kb/d in October, as per Reuters. The boost in oil exports is the result of increased crude output and more sales to India and the US, according to ship tracking data. Finally, Exxon reported $8.61 billion in their Q3-24 earnings, down 5% y/y, while hitting a 40-year liquids production high at 3.2mb/d. Meanwhile, Exxon has sold the Fos-sur-Mer refinery in France to a consortium composed of Entara and Trafigura. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.38/bbl and $1.27/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract strengthened this morning from $74.05/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $74.65/bbl at 10:10 GMT, before coming off to around $74.30/bbl at 10:35 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw support amid reports that Iran is preparing a major retaliatory attack on Israel by proxy from Iraq in the coming days, with US officials continuing to work towards an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire deal in the meantime. In the news today, Israel hit Beirut’s southern suburbs with airstrikes aimed at Hezbollah assets early this morning, in the first such strikes in days targeting the dense urban area. In other news, according to S&P Global, Russia is not planning to lift its gasoline export ban early due to ongoing refinery turnarounds and high retail prices, after Russian officials indicated in September that the ban could be lifted early on the condition of a gasoline surplus. Turnarounds are expected to continue at several Russian refineries into the first half of November, including the Norsi, Ryazan, and Volgograd facilities. Finally, a Ukrainian drone has crashed into an oil depot in Russia’s Stavropol region, reported by a local governor Vladimir Vladimirov on Telegram. This follows yesterday’s drone attack on the Russian region of Bashkortostan, where major oil company Bashneft operates several large refineries. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.41/bbl and $1.33/bbl, respectively.
After rallying this morning, the Jan’25 Brent futures contract saw continued strength this afternoon, moving from $72.65/bbl at 12:00 GMT up to $73.23/bbl at 15:25 GMT, however, price tapered off to $72.75/bbl by 18:05 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices were supported with ongoing uncertainty regarding a potential Israel-Lebanon ceasefire deal. In the news today, the IMF has cut their Middle East GDP growth outlook to 2.1% for this year, slashed by 0.6% from their April forecast. According to the IMF, this comes amid continuing regional conflict and expectations of a delay in OPEC+ oil production cuts. In other news, TotalEnergies missed the analyst estimate of $4.27 billion profit for Q3’24, reporting an adjusted net income of $4.1 billion on weaker refining margins and lower LNG production. Finally, Rosneft’s Tuapse oil refinery, one of Russia’s biggest Black Sea refineries, is due to resume operations in November. The facility was suspended from 1 Oct because of low margins on refined fuels, however, is expected to process about 480,000 metric tons of crude oil next month, as per Reuters. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.37/bbl and $1.16/bbl, respectively.
Brent gapped down on the open on Monday as a chunk of geopolitical risk was removed following a bearish market reaction to Israel’s attack on Iranian military bases. US-backed ceasefires continue to bring some hope, and geopolitical tensions are semi-resigned to the backburner of public attention. Betting sites show Trump’s next presidency at a 65% sure thing, although national polls are pretty tight. With a week until the big day, the US has been focused on establishing who is and is not ‘garbage’. The moral highpoint surrounding Trump’s comedian’s Puerto Rico gaffe dropped like SMCI stocks as Biden had his very own garbage gaffe. Macro releases from the States are pretty murky and seem a step away from the clean, soft landing that was discussed. More polls indicate an even split from ‘analysts’ as to whether OPEC will return the promised/threatened December barrels. The return being in question, let alone out loud, seems far from a good thing.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract strengthened this afternoon, increasing from $71.90/bbl at 12:00 GMT up to $72.35/bbl at 17:45 GMT (time of writing). Price spiked 75c up to $72.65/bbl shortly before 12:30 GMT amid an OPEC+ announcement that the oil production hike planned for December could be delayed by more than a month, as per Reuters. In addition, EIA stats released at 15:30 GMT for the week to 25 Oct showed a draw of 0.5mb in US crude oil inventories, which supported prices further. In the news today, US mediators are working on a 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, as per Reuters. Meanwhile, Israel has continued its attack on Lebanon, targeting the city of Baalbek today. In other news, according to a Bloomberg report, oil production in Guyana dropped 11% in Q3’24 while Exxon temporarily shut two of its three vessels for maintenance. Hess Corp., which has a 30% stake in the Stabroek Block, stated that its share of production declined to 170kb/d from 192kb/d in Q2’24. Finally, Russia’s Gazprom has boosted its 2024 investment plan by 4% to $16.9 billion thanks to rising exports and domestic supply. The company continues to develop projects aimed at increasing gas supply to China, according to Gazprom’s Deputy Chairman of the Management Committee, Famil Sadygov. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.37/bbl and $1.07/bbl, respectively.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract strengthened marginally this morning, moving from $71.70/bbl at 07:00 GMT to touch $71.80/bbl at 10:30 GMT (time of writing). Price action was volatile this morning alongside fluctuating geopolitical risk premia, spiking to almost $72.10/bbl around 08:30 GMT before descending below $71.50/bbl at 10:00 GMT. We also saw downward pressure amid resuming Israel-Lebanon peace talks, with an Axios report stating that US President Biden’s senior advisors are travelling to Israel tomorrow in an attempt to close the ceasefire deal. In the news today, crude oil production at Mexican state-owned giant Pemex was at nearly 1.75mb/d in September, down 1.2% y/y, according to a note by Giovanni Staunovo. In other news, PetroVietnam said today that Saudi Aramco is looking to invest in oil refining, petrochemicals, and oil product distribution in Vietnam, as per S&P Global. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser stated the oil giant will send a working group to Vietnam soon to advance discussions on multiple projects, however, specific details are yet to be disclosed. Finally, CNOOC has signed an oil contract with Iraq’s state-run Midland Oil Company to develop the Block 7 field, located in the Diwaniyah province. While CNOOC anticipates a large discovery of crude oil, appraisals are needed to accurately understand Block 7’s reserve potential, as per Reuters. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.35/bbl and $0.86/bbl, respectively.
Jan’25 Brent futures flat price weakened this afternoon, falling from around $71.90/bbl at 12:00 GMT and finding a floor around $70.30/bbl at 15:30 GMT before rising to $70.68/bbl at 17:30 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices faced downward pressure amid persistent concerns over weak Chinese demand, as well as reports of a scheduled meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and his ministers to discuss potential resolutions to the conflict in Lebanon, according to Axios. In the news today, an OilChem survey indicated that China plans to reduce fuel exports by 14.2% in November. Total fuel exports are projected at 2.54 million tons, with allocations for gasoil and kerosene down by 28% and 18% compared to October, respectively. In other news, Angola’s Cabinda oil refinery is set to be commissioned between January and February, the CEO of Gemcorp has stated. Meanwhile, the first supplies of fuels are projected to reach local markets between March and April. The greenfield project will refine 30kb/d of Angolan Cabinda crude and supply 5-10% of the country’s needs, according to Reuters. Finally, Phillips 66 plans to operate its refineries between the low to mid 90% range capacity in Q4’24, making for a combined capacity of 1.5mb/d, as per Reuters. At the time of writing, the front-month (Jan/Feb’25) and six-month (Jan/Jul’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.33/bbl and $0.83/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract strengthened from $70.90/bbl at 07:00 BST to $71.75/bbl at 10:35 BST (time of writing). Prices saw support this morning amid reports of Chinese power demand growing faster than expected in 2024. In the news today, according to the China Electricity Council’s Q3’24 report, the country now sees 2024 electricity consumption growing by 7% to 9.9 trillion kWh. In its previous report, the group had forecast 6.5% growth to 9.82 trillion kWh. In other news, Israel is maintaining the intensity of its attacks on Gaza, with a Reuters report stating at least 60 Palestinians were killed and dozens wounded in an Israeli strike on a residential building in the northern Gaza town of Beit Lahiya today. Finally, Reuters reports that Mexico has sent a crude oil cargo of 400kb to Cuba, which is expected to arrive by the end of the week. Cuba is currently experiencing a series of blackouts alongside food and fuel shortages. At the time of writing, the front-month (Jan/Feb’25) and six-month (Jan/Jul’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.04/bbl, respectively.
