
European Window: Brent Bounces Back to $65.53/bbl
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally to $65.65/bbl at 14:21 BST before falling off to $54.94/bbl at 14:51 BST. Prices then bounced back to $65.53/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Kazakhstan’s oil output rose 2% in May to 1.86 mb/d. The increase follows April’s 3% drop but still exceeds the country’s OPEC+ quota of 1.486 mb/d. Kazakhstan blames its repeated overproduction on the difficulty of curbing output from Western-led projects like Tengiz. The energy ministry insists it remains committed to OPEC+ and will offset excess output by 2026 but prioritizes national interests. In other news, Ukraine is urging the G7 to lower the price cap on Russian seaborne oil from $60/bbl to $30/bbl to tighten economic pressure on Moscow, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha said. This comes as the EU and UK announced new sanctions targeting Russia’s “shadow fleet” and financial networks helping it evade existing restrictions. While the EU is considering a revised cap of $50/bbl, Ukraine wants a more aggressive cut. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) warned on Tuesday that an above-average Atlantic hurricane season could disrupt oil production and refining along the Gulf Coast. With around 17 named storms forecast, weather-related shutdowns are increasingly likely. More than 1mb/d of refining capacity, about 5% of US petroleum consumption, could be preemptively halted in the path of major storms. AccuWeather expects 3 to 6 storms to directly hit the US this season, which runs June through November. Finaly, at the time of writing, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.62/bbl and $1.67/bbl respectively.