Fuel Oil

The Sep’25 contract dropped to $67.49/bbl at 14:10 BST before rallying up to $67.78/bbl at 14:48 BST. Prices are at $67.64/bbl at 17:55 BST (time of writing). In the news, Kazakhstan is set to exceed its 2025 oil production forecast by about 2%, with output now expected to reach 97.7mt (2 mb/d), up from 96.2 mt. This increase comes from higher output at major oilfields like Tengiz, Kashagan, and Karachaganak. Kazakhstan has consistently exceeded its OPEC+ quotas. KazMunayGaz raised its projections for Tengiz by 900 kt, Kashagan by 200 kt, and Karachaganak by 360kt. In other news, the US Supreme Court has agreed to hear Enbridge’s bid to move Michigan’s lawsuit, which seeks to stop the operation of its Line 5 pipeline beneath the Straits of Mackinac, to federal court. The dispute centres on the ageing Line 5 pipeline, which carries 540kb/d of crude and refined products from Wisconsin to Ontario, with a four-mile section running underwater through the Straits of Mackinac. Environmentalists are concerned about the risk of oil leaks. Analysts slightly raised their oil price forecasts after tensions in the Middle East, but rising OPEC+ supply and a cautious demand outlook continue to weigh on prices, according to a Reuters poll. The poll expects Brent crude to average $67.86/bbl in 2025, up from $66.98/bbl last month. While the Iran-Israel conflict caused price fluctuations, analysts view any price spikes as temporary unless the situation escalates. Rising OPEC+ output and comfortable inventories should keep prices in check. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spreads are at $0.88/bbl and $2.95/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon, the front-month Brent futures contract was initially rangebound between $68 and $68.40/bbl but softened further to $67.25/bbl at 16:40 BST. Prices found more support at this level and have since risen to $67.65/bbl at the time of writing (17:45 BST).

The Aug’25 Brent futures contract rallied all afternoon to $69.01/bbl at 16:28 BST but have since softened to $68.45/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Sierra Leone will decide on launching its next offshore oil and gas licensing a senior official said on Jun 26. The six-week survey aims to de-risk exploration and attract interest for a possible licensing launch in October. Sierra Leone estimates it holds 30 B barrels of recoverable offshore resources. Director General Foday Mansaray noted that major firms like Shell, Petrobras, Hess, and Murphy Oil have recently purchased exploration data. In other news, Sudan and South Sudan have not reached a deal on revising the oil transit fees South Sudan pays to export its crude through Sudan’s pipeline network, Radio Tamazuj reported Thursday. South Sudan relies on a pipeline through Sudan to access Port Sudan on the Red Sea. Sudan is now seeking higher fees, citing logistical challenges at the Bashayer terminal. With continued uncertainty, South Sudan is exploring alternatives, including a potential pipeline to Djibouti via Ethiopia. Associated British Foods has warned it will shut the Vivergo bioethanol plant by September unless the government provides immediate support. The closure would be a blow to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who hailed last month’s UK-US trade deal as a win for British industry. The deal eliminated the UK’s 19% tariff on US ethanol, allowing 1.4 B litres duty-free, equivalent to the entire UK market. British producers argue this, combined with existing regulatory imbalances, makes UK operations unviable. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep and 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spreads are at $0.93/bbl and $3.23/bbl respectively.

The Aug’25 Brent futures contract initially fell to $67.33/bbl before rallying up to $68.74/bbl at 17:31 BST (time of writing). In the news, Shell has entered early-stage discussions to acquire rival BP, according to a Wall Street Journal report citing sources familiar with the matter. The talks are said to be active, with BP carefully weighing Shell’s approach. No deal terms have been disclosed, and there is no certainty that the negotiations will result in a merger. In other news, Saudi Arabia’s oil export revenues dropped 21.2% yy/y in April to $16.5 B due to falling oil prices amid oversupply concerns and weaker global growth. Prices dipped about 15% that month following OPEC+’s surprise plan to ramp up production and a fresh wave of US tariffs. Oil exports made up 68.6% of total exports in April, down from 77.5% a year earlier. While total exports fell 10.9%, non-oil exports rose 24.6%, data from Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Statistics showed. Israel’s Leviathan and Karish gas fields have resumed operations after nearly two weeks offline due to the conflict with Iran, restoring a key energy supply to Egypt and Jordan. The shutdown, left only the older Tamar field running for domestic use. Leviathan partners NewMed and Ratio Energies estimate the halt cost $12 million in lost revenue and said they may seek state compensation. Israel’s Energy Ministry confirmed the restart after a security review, saying exports and tax revenues would rise and electricity and industry operations would benefit. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep and 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spreads are at $1.00/bbl and $3.46/bbl respectively.

The Aug’25 Brent Futures contract initially rallied to $69.26/bbl at 14:08 BST but quickly fell off to $67.78/bbl. Prices have since fallen further to $66.93/bbl at 17:50 BST (time of writing). The drop in price comes after US President Trump stated that China could now resume buying Iranian oil. Further fuelling today’s bearish sentiment was the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. President Trump later accused both sides of violating it, noting Israeli strikes and Iranian retaliation. Explosions were reported in Tehran despite Trump’s claim he had urged Israel to hold back. Barclays noted that without a broader regional escalation, supply disruptions remain unlikely. In other news, US oil and gas producer Coterra Energy will keep its rig count steady at nine in the Permian Basin, CEO Tom Jorden said Tuesday. Speaking at the J.P. Morgan Energy, Power & Renewables Conference, Jorden noted the company had considered reducing to seven rigs in the second half of 2025, fearing a price collapse. EU diplomats expect to reach a deal this week on a new round of sanctions against Russia, though Slovakia and Hungary are pushing for concessions on Russian energy. The proposed 18th sanctions package includes measures targeting Russia’s energy revenues, banks, and shadow tanker fleet, aiming to pressure Moscow into a Ukraine ceasefire. Slovakia, citing economic impact, wants exemptions for landlocked countries, capped transit fees, and guarantees against shortages. Finally, the front/month Aug/Sep and the 6-month Aug/ Feb’26 spreads are at $0.75/bbl and $2.08/bbl respectively.

The Aug’25 Brent Futures contract fell off to $75.99/bbl at 15:22 BST before recovering to $77.30/bbl at 17:30 BST. Prices then dropped to $75.18/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). The price drops comes after reports of Iran launching attacks against US bases in Qatar. In the news, US President Donald Trump called for lower oil prices following recent US and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities that stoked fears of a supply disruption. “Everyone, keep oil prices down, I’m watching! You’re playing into the hands of the enemy, don’t do it,” Trump posted in all caps on Truth Social. He also urged the Department of Energy to “drill, baby, drill,” prompting Energy Secretary Chris Wright to respond on X: “We’re on it!”. Venezuela’s Cardon refinery, the country’s second-largest with a capacity of 310kBrent/Dubai was shut down on 23 June due to a power outage, according to two sources familiar with the matter. Operated by state-owned PDVSA, the plant plays a key role in processing heavy crude from the Orinoco Belt. The blackout began early in the day and did not impact the nearby 645kBrent/Dubai Amuay refinery. PDVSA is transferring equipment between the two sites to restore power. In other news, US electricity prices surged to their highest levels since winter as a severe heat wave swept across the eastern half of the country, straining regional power grids. Next-day power prices at the PJM West hub in Pennsylvania soared over 430% to $211/MWh, while New England prices rose 180% to $161/MWh. PJM Interconnection expects power demand to peak at 160,000 MW Monday, prompting alerts for generators to operate at full capacity. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep spread is at $1.38/bbl and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spread is at $5.11/bbl.

The Aug’25 Brent crude futures rose from $76.02/bbl at 13:29 BST to $76.91/bbl at 14:52 BST and softened to $76.60/bbl at 17:10 BST (time of writing). The UK is withdrawing embassy staff from Iran as a precaution amid ongoing exchanges of fire between Israel and Iran, including new Iranian strikes and Israeli attacks on targets in Tehran. British, French, and German foreign ministers are meeting their Iranian counterparts in Geneva to help ease tensions. The Trump administration announced new sanctions targeting Iran and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis, citing efforts to disrupt the supply of sensitive machinery and illicit oil trading networks. The Iran-related sanctions hit eight entities, one individual, and one vessel, including Hong Kong-based Unico Shipping Co. Ltd and Athena Shipping Co. Ltd, for supporting Tehran’s ballistic missile and UAV programs. Separately, the Treasury sanctioned four individuals, 12 entities, and two vessels linked to smuggling operations that fund the Houthis. The EU has decided not to lower the Russian oil price cap from $60 to $45/bbl due to rising volatility from the Israel-Iran conflict. The proposal was set for discussion by EU foreign ministers, but diplomats said the unstable Middle East situation made it too risky. G7 countries also agreed to delay action amid fluctuating oil prices. Residents of Nigeria’s Bille and Ogale communities will go to trial in 2027 over oil pollution claims against Shell and its former Nigerian subsidiary. The lawsuit, filed in 2015, alleges years of environmental damage, including contaminated drinking water. The communities seek compensation and cleanup of the oil spills. Finally, the front (Aug/Sep) and 6-month (Aug/Feb) Brent futures spreads are at $1.49/bbl and $5.27/bbl, respectively.