Fuel Oil

The Aug’25 Brent futures contract initially continued rallying up to $65.68/bbl at 14:15 BST, but then fell off to $64.50/bbl at 15:02 BST. Prices have since recovered to $65.05/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Kazakhstan’s Kashagan oilfield is set to reach 1B barrels of cumulative production by the end of 2025. Located in the North Caspian Sea, Kashagan holds about 35B barrels of oil in place, with nearly 16B deemed recoverable. Kazakhstan is also expanding its Tengiz field, set to boost output by 260kb/d. Despite being an OPEC+ member, Kazakhstan continues to exceed its production quota, citing its limited control over fields operated by international partners. In other news, Venezuela’s government is increasing taxes and service charges on the private sector, putting added strain on already struggling businesses. Reuters analysts estimate a 30% drop in oil income from $15B in 2024, prompting demands for advance tax payments, fines, and higher local service fees. Business leaders warn these measures threaten jobs and growth, with 77% citing tax burden as their main obstacle. President Trump’s proposed budget includes shutting down the “Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve” within months, aiming to sell its 1mb of diesel for an estimated $86 million to help reduce the US deficit. The reserve, established in 2000, hasn’t been used since Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Trump’s plan contrasts with former President Biden’s 2022 proposal to expand the reserve amid energy price spikes following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep spread is at $0.78/bbl and the 6-month Aug/Feb spread is at $1.68/bbl.

The Aug’25 Brent futures contract fell in a $1.43/bbl move down to $62.53/bbl at 13:47 BST. Prices then traded between $62.40/bbl and $63.04/bbl for the rest of the afternoon and at 17:20 BST (time of writing) were trading at $62.45/bbl. The Jul’25 contract similarly fell in a $0.96/bbl drop to $64.61/bbl and traded rangebound for the rest of the afternoon. In the news, OPEC+ may consider a July oil output hike larger than the 411kb/d increases for May and June at its Saturday meeting, sources told Reuters. The move follows rising tensions over members like Kazakhstan, which has refused to cut production despite exceeding its quota for months. Saudi Arabia and Russia are reportedly using higher output to pressure over-producing allies and regain market share. In other news, US crude oil output hit a record high of 13.49mb/d in March, surpassing the previous peak from October 2024, the EIA reported. However, demand for oil products fell to a 12-month low of 19.95 mb/d, highlighting a growing gap between supply and consumption. Libyan authorities have arrested three suspects linked to a militia that broke into the National Oil Corporation (NOC) headquarters in Tripoli, demanding jobs. The incident prompted the eastern Libyan government to threaten declaring force majeure on oilfields and export terminals, citing repeated assaults on the NOC. While NOC denies the break-in, tensions persist between the rival eastern and western governments. Finally the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $1.35/bbl and $2.56/bbl respectively.

The Aug’25 Brent futures contract fell most afternoon to $63.14/bbl at 15:18 BST. Prices have risen slightly to $63.43/bbl at 17:40 BST(time of writing). In the news, the EIA reported that US crude inventories fell by 2.8 mb last week to 440.4 mb, defying expectations for a slight increase. Gasoline and distillate stocks also dropped by 2.4mb and 724kb, respectively. Refinery runs and utilization rates declined, while crude imports fell by 532b/d. Cushing hub inventories rose slightly by 75k/b. In other news, Libya’s eastern government may declare force majeure on oil exports due to alleged assaults on the National Oil Corporation (NOC), though NOC denies any attack. The eastern faction, aligned with General Khalifa Haftar, controls many oilfields and may relocate NOC’s HQ to safer cities it controls. Despite recent clashes in Tripoli, NOC assures operations remain unaffected. International oil firms like BP, Eni, and Weatherford have recently resumed activities in Libya after years of conflict-related withdrawal. In OPEC related news, Kazakhstan has told OPEC+ it cannot cut oil production, citing contractual limits with international consortiums that control over 70% of its output and technical challenges at older, state-run fields. Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said the country may even raise output later this year. Deputy Energy Minister Alibek Zhamauov added that OPEC+ is expected to announce a new output hike at its Saturday meeting, with the exact volume to be confirmed then.Finally the front-month Jul/Aug and the 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.75/bbl and $1.96/bbl respectively.

The Aug’25 Brent futures contract slowly rallied up to $64.59/bbl at 14:35 BST before jumping up to $65.03/bbl at 16:43 BST. Prices have since come off to $64.65/bbl at 17:30 BST. In the news, OPEC+ has agreed to create a mechanism to set new oil production baselines for 2027, aiming to reflect countries’ true capacity amid shifting output levels. No immediate policy changes were made, but eight members may agree on Saturday to a July output increase of 411kb/d. Current output cuts remain in place, with some being gradually lifted through October. In other news, Russia may revise the $60/bbl baseline in its budget rule due to falling oil prices, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said. The rule currently directs oil revenue above $60/bbl to the National Wealth Fund, while revenue shortfalls are covered when prices drop below that level. With Urals crude recently near $50/bbl and oil revenues down 24%, Russia is now projecting a larger 2025 budget deficit, 1.7% of GDP, up from 0.5%. More from Russia, where sanctioned tankers have recently been involved in ship-to-ship transfers of Russian crude that later arrived in India, Bloomberg reports. India, a top buyer of Russian oil alongside China, prohibits sanctioned vessels from unloading at its ports. Indian refiners maintain they comply with sanctions and the G7 price cap. In May, India is set to import nearly 1.8mb/d of Russian oil driven by increased purchases of lighter grades like ESPO. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug spread is at $0.58/bbl and the 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spread is at $1.65/bbl.

The Jul’25 Brent futures initially jumped up to $64.55 at 08:57 BST before falling to $64.09 at 09:33 BST. Prices then rallied back up to $64.64 at11:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Israel has denied a New York Times report claiming Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities to derail US-Iran nuclear talks. The article cited concerns among Israeli officials that President Trump may accept an interim deal allowing Iran to retain enrichment capabilities. In other news, the Trump administration has issued a limited authorization for Chevron to keep its assets in Venezuela but barred it from operating oilfields, exporting oil, or expanding activities. This follows the expiration of a broader license granted under Biden. The move aims to prevent financial support to President Maduro’s government. Venezuela’s oil output has been slowly recovering but remains low due to sanctions and mismanagement. Norwegian energy firm Okea has discovered oil at the Prince prospect in the North Sea, according to the Norwegian Offshore Directorate. The find is estimated at 1.9mb to 17.5mb. Located near the Brage field, Okea operates the site with a 35.2% stake, alongside partners Lime Petroleum, DNO, Petrolia Novo, and M Vest Energy. Saudi Arabia may lower its July crude oil prices for Asia to the lowest in six months, according to a Reuters survey of refiners. The official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light is forecasted to drop by 40–50 cents. The move follows falling oil prices amid rising OPEC+ supply and weaker global demand. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.55/bbl and $1.47/bbl respectively.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract fell all afternoon to $63.53/bbl at 16:39 BST. Prices have slightly recovered to $64.01/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, OPEC+ is expected to announce another oil output increase for July when eight core members meet on Saturday, three group delegates told Reuters. The hike, likely to match the 411kb/d increases seen in May and June, is part of a phased unwinding of voluntary cuts as demand climbs. No policy change is anticipated at the broader group’s meeting next Wednesday. SEB analysts suggest the move is already priced into the market. In other news, a wildfire in northern Alberta has led to the evacuation of the town of Swan Hills and the temporary shutdown of local oil and gas operations. Aspenleaf Energy shut in 4kb/d of production and evacuated field staff as a precaution. The fire marks Alberta’s first significant blaze this spring, echoing past years when wildfires disrupted hundreds of thousands of barrels per day in oil production. Saudi Aramco is set to price a three-part US dollar bond next Tuesday, aiming to raise at least $500 million, according to IFR. The move is part of a broader effort to boost funding as oil prices fall and Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit widens. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug spread is at $0.53/bbl and the 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spread is at $1.40/bbl.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract initially dropped from $64.58/bbl down to $63.41/bbl at 13:10 BST. Prices then rallied all afternoon to $65.01/bbl but slightly came off to $64.72 at 17:15 BST (time of writing). In the news, US President Donald Trump proposed a 50% tariff on EU imports starting June 1. EU and US trade officials are set to discuss the issue later today. The proposed tariffs triggered sharp declines in European stocks and bond yields, with economists warning of a serious escalation in trade tensions. The EU is considering countermeasures but prefers a negotiated solution. In other news, Suriname is aiming to expand its offshore oil exploration with increased interest from majors like Shell, TotalEnergies, and Petronas. TotalEnergies is leading the $10.5B GranMorgu project, expected to produce first oil in 2028 from reserves of over 750mb. The project includes a 220kb/d FPSO and is forecast to boost Suriname’s GDP by 55% in 2028, according to the IMF. Iraq’s federal government said Friday that recent energy deals signed between US companies and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) violate the constitution and must be approved by Baghdad. This comes after the KRG formalized two major agreements with HKN Energy and WesternZagros, targeting development of the Topkhana block, estimated to hold 5 trillion cubic feet of gas and 900mb of oil. Iraq’s Oil Ministry emphasized it has no issue with US firms operating in Iraq, but only through official federal channels, not directly with the KRG. Finally the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 Brent spreads are at $0.59/bbl and $1.63/bbl respectively