Fuel Oil

The Jan’26 Brent Futures contract fell this afternoon to $63.02/bbl at 16:06 GMT, before recovering to $63.30/bbl at 16:59 BST. At 17:30 BST (time of writing) prices had softened to $63.15/bbl. In the news, Lukoil faces US sanctions pressure, forcing quick action as deals risk being blocked before the 21 November deadline. Sanctions have disrupted operations in Iraq, Finland, and Bulgaria, with a planned asset sale to Gunvor blocked. Bidders are circling foreign assets, including KazMunayGas’s interest in Karachaganak and Shell’s bid for deepwater blocks in Ghana and Nigeria. Egypt and Moldova are also involved targets. Reuters analysts warn proceeds could be frozen or assets seized under trusteeship if sold now. In other news, Russia’s oil processing fell 3% this year as refineries used spare capacity to offset Ukraine’s drone attacks, which targeted 17 major refineries. Even with 20% offline at the peak, refining volume dropped about 6% to 5.1 mb/d. Refineries operated below capacity, restarting spare units and repairing damaged ones quickly. Western sanctions hinder spare parts, but Russia pursued domestic production and Chinese imports to keep repairs moving, though at higher costs and longer timelines. South Sudan’s petroleum ministry says it has asked for $2.5 Bn in oil-backed loans from two international firms, a sum larger than the government’s annual budget and about the UN’s estimate of loans received since 2011. The letters were sent late last month; no funds have been transferred. The requests propose repaying the loans within 54 months of disbursement, with $1 Bn from ONGC Nile Ganga B.V. and $1.5 Bn from CNPC, tied to crude oil entitlements controlled by the national oil company. Finally, the front-month Jan/Feb and 6-month Jan/Jul spreads are at $0.36/bbl and $0.66/bbl respectively.

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract slipped this afternoon, from $64.50/bbl at 13:00 GMT to $62.80/bbl at 16:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, an OPEC report has forecast that global supply in 2026 will match demand, marking a shift from its previous projections of a supply deficit. The report details that the producer group expects global oil demand to rise by 1.3mb/d this year and at a slightly faster rate in 2026. Elsewhere, President Rumen Radev of Bulgaria has vetoed legislation that would enable the government to seize Lukoil’s Burgas refinery and sell it to shield it from US sanctions. In a statement, Radev has said that the application of the law has been expanded dangerously, though parliament may override his veto. In Russia, seaborne oil product exports remained largely unchanged this month compared to September, as refineries completed their seasonal maintenance, according to a Reuters report. While overall volumes were steady this month, particular flows were disrupted due to US sanctions and continued drone attacks. In other news, Reuters has reported that Russia and Kazakhstan have agreed to strengthen their partnership in the oil sector following talks between the nations’ respective presidents. However, no particular details were given during Kazakh President Tokayev’s televised remarks. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.25/bbl and $0.44/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract rose this afternoon, from $64.45/bbl at 13:00 GMT to $65.28/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). According to Reuters, Chinese refinery Yanchang Petroleum (capacity 348kb/d) is seeking non-Russian oil in its latest crude tender for December to mid-February delivery. Simultaneously, Sinopec’s subsidiary, Luoyang Petrochemical (capacity 200kb/d), has closed its two crude distillation units for maintenance until late November, partly due to Western sanctions. Elsewhere, Russia’s crude oil deliveries to Asia via the Northern Sea Route have decreased 4.2% y/y to about 13mb, according to Kommersant daily. The use of the North Sea route is limited to warmer months, as early winter ice already hinders tanker movements, according to satellite data. In Bulgaria, the chairman of the state reserves agency stated that the country has approximately one month of gasoline supplies remaining as it prepares for US sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil, which owns the nation’s largest oil refinery and a significant portion of its storage and pipeline infrastructure. Elsewhere, India’s state-owned ONGC has reported a 17.8% y/y decline in its net profit for Q3 2025, with crude realisations at $67.23/bbl. In other news, TotalEnergies, Qatar Energy, and Petronas have signed a 5-year deal with Guyana to explore a shallow-water block, according to company executives. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.29/bbl and $0.73/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract eased this afternoon, from $64.10/bbl at 14:00 GMT to $63.42/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters reported that Russia’s Lukoil has declared force majeure at its Iraqi oil field, West Qurna-2 (capacity 480kb/d), with Bulgaria well poised to seize the refinery. According to a senior Iraqi oil industry official, if the reasons for the extenuating circumstances are not resolved within six months, Lukoil will cease production and completely withdraw from the project. In other news, a Reuters report has stated that India’s HPCL refiner is seeking two cargoes of naphtha for November delivery, following the disruption of its Russian supplies amid US sanctions on Russia; the prompt tender has been extended to 12 November. Elsewhere, Eni and Petronas plan to initiate as many as eight new upstream projects in Indonesia and Malaysia over the next three years, according to Eni’s Chief Executive, Claudio Descalzi. The joint venture intends to combine a portfolio of gas-producing and development assets in Malaysia and Indonesia, with an initial production rate exceeding 300 kb/d. Finally, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.22/bbl and $0.36/bbl.

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract traded rangebound this afternoon, from highs of $64/bbl at 12:30 GMT to lows of $63.50/bbl at 16:00 GMT. Prices are at $63.58/bbl as of 17:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters reported that two tankers carrying roughly 1.5mb of Russian crude have anchored at both ends of the Suez Canal, signalling Russia’s challenges in selling oil following Western sanctions last month. The tankers Sikar and Monte 1 were loaded from Russia’s Baltic port of Primorsk in early October and have been anchored for over a week, per LSEG and OilX data. In other news, a spokesperson for Finnish petrol station chain Teboil, owned by Russia’s Lukoil, has stated that the company is running low on fuel due to US sanctions disrupting its business. Following the collapse of a Gunvor deal to acquire Lukoil’s foreign assets, the Russian major is struggling to maintain its foreign companies. Elsewhere, India’s oil ministry data show that fuel consumption has risen 7.7% m/m, hitting a five-year high in October of $20mnmt. Finally, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.26/bbl and $0.46/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract weakened this afternoon, from $64/bbl at 13:00 GMT to $62.98/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters reported that Lukoil’s Volgograd refinery has halted operations after a Ukrainian drone attack in the Southern city. The refinery (capacity 100mb/d) reported that its primary CDU unit and a hydrocracker had been damaged in the attack. In other news, Russian oil is trading at its biggest discount to Brent crude in a year, as Indian and Chinese refiners cut their purchases amid US sanctions on Russian major companies. According to a Reuters report, the gap between Russian Urals and Brent increased by $2/bbl y/y to roughly $4/bbl below Brent for December delivery. Elsewhere, PetroChina is planning to phase out production at 19 inefficient units across its facilities as it looks to trim overcapacity. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 are at $0.26/bbl and $0.24/bbl, respectively.