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May’s end brought with it the usual harbingers of OPEC+ rumours. With the meeting now out of the way following a baseline hike of 411kb/d in June, the M1 Brent futures contract has stabilised around $65/bbl despite briefly selling off to a low of $64.45/bbl due to a larger-than-expected build in US distillate fuel and gasoline stocks in the week ending 30 May.
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract rallied to $65.84/bbl at 14:38 BST before softening to $65.45/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, US President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping agreed to resume trade talks amid renewed tensions over tariffs and rare earth mineral exports. Both leaders expressed willingness to visit each other’s countries, but broader issues like Taiwan, fentanyl, and economic models remain unresolved. The talks aim to avert further disruption to global supply chains. In other news, Vermilion Energy will sell its US assets for $87.8 million, completing its exit from the US market. The Canadian firm will use the proceeds to reduce debt and now expects 2025 net debt of $951 million. It also raised its production forecast and cut its capital budget following recent asset sales. Earlier this year, Vermilion acquired Westbrick Energy for $790 million to boost its Alberta operations amid rising natural gas prices. Petronas will cut about 10% of its nearly 50,000-strong workforce in a restructuring move, CEO Tengku Muhammad Taufik announced. He denied reports that the company plans to exit Canada, calling it vital to Petronas’ LNG ambitions. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spreads are at $0.61/bbl and $1.47/bbl respectively.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract traded between $65.14/bbl and $65.91/bbl for most of the afternoon. The contract fell to $64.48/bbl at 16:18 BST but has slightly recovered to $64.69/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, US crude inventories dropped by 4.3 mb last week to 436.1 million, as refineries ramped up operations to 93.4% capacity for the summer driving season, EIA data shows. However, fuel inventories rose sharply: gasoline by 5.2 mb and distillates by 4.2 mb. Gasoline consumption fell by 1.2 mb/d to 8.3 mb/d, raising concerns about demand despite the post-Memorial Day period. Crude imports increased by 389kb/d, and Cushing stocks rose by 576kb. In other news, PetroChina will shut down the last crude unit at its 410kb/d Dalian refinery, its largest in northern China, on June 30, marking the first full closure of a state-run refinery in the country. The secondary units will follow in July, and inventories will be cleared by August. The Dalian plant, which processes mainly Russian ESPO crude, represents nearly 3% of China’s refining capacity. Russia’s National Wealth Fund lost nearly $6B in liquid assets in May, falling to $35.5B, according to the finance ministry. Liquid assets have dropped 68% since the Ukraine invasion began in 2022. The decline is tied to falling oil prices, which pushed Russian oil revenues to just $6.5B in May. Crude export volumes held steady, but revenues sank to a two-year low. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has suggested revising the $60/bbl benchmark in Russia’s budget rule as oil prices stay below that level. Finally, The front-month Aug/Sep and 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spreads are at $0.64/bbl and $1.41/bbl respectively.
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract rallied all afternoon to $65.86/bbl at 17:11 BST, but has since softened a little to $65.66/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing). In headlines, Venezuela’s May oil exports held steady at ~779kb/d, with rising shipments to China of 584 kb/d offsetting the end of US-authorized sales; Chevron and Reliance deliveries ceased, and PDVSA began independent Boscan crude exports to Asia. In other news, according to Reuters, refining margins hit their highest since March 2024 due to tight fuel oil supply, strong summer demand, and outages, though analysts warn the surge may be short-lived. Meanwhile, new US-Iran nuclear talks are underway, but major obstacles remain, including Iran’s refusal to halt enrichment or export its enriched uranium. Any new agreement would need to restore robust IAEA oversight and reconstruct a “baseline” of Iran’s nuclear activities, an effort experts say will be difficult and potentially incomplete due to long-standing information gaps. At the time of writing (17:40 BST), the prompt (Aug/Sep) and 6-month (Aug/Feb) Brent Spreads were at $0.66/bbl and $1.57/bbl.
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract initially continued rallying up to $65.68/bbl at 14:15 BST, but then fell off to $64.50/bbl at 15:02 BST. Prices have since recovered to $65.05/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Kazakhstan’s Kashagan oilfield is set to reach 1B barrels of cumulative production by the end of 2025. Located in the North Caspian Sea, Kashagan holds about 35B barrels of oil in place, with nearly 16B deemed recoverable. Kazakhstan is also expanding its Tengiz field, set to boost output by 260kb/d. Despite being an OPEC+ member, Kazakhstan continues to exceed its production quota, citing its limited control over fields operated by international partners. In other news, Venezuela’s government is increasing taxes and service charges on the private sector, putting added strain on already struggling businesses. Reuters analysts estimate a 30% drop in oil income from $15B in 2024, prompting demands for advance tax payments, fines, and higher local service fees. Business leaders warn these measures threaten jobs and growth, with 77% citing tax burden as their main obstacle. President Trump’s proposed budget includes shutting down the “Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve” within months, aiming to sell its 1mb of diesel for an estimated $86 million to help reduce the US deficit. The reserve, established in 2000, hasn’t been used since Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Trump’s plan contrasts with former President Biden’s 2022 proposal to expand the reserve amid energy price spikes following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep spread is at $0.78/bbl and the 6-month Aug/Feb spread is at $1.68/bbl.
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The Aug’25 Brent futures contract fell in a $1.43/bbl move down to $62.53/bbl at 13:47 BST. Prices then traded between $62.40/bbl and $63.04/bbl for the rest of the afternoon and at 17:20 BST (time of writing) were trading at $62.45/bbl. The Jul’25 contract similarly fell in a $0.96/bbl drop to $64.61/bbl and traded rangebound for the rest of the afternoon. In the news, OPEC+ may consider a July oil output hike larger than the 411kb/d increases for May and June at its Saturday meeting, sources told Reuters. The move follows rising tensions over members like Kazakhstan, which has refused to cut production despite exceeding its quota for months. Saudi Arabia and Russia are reportedly using higher output to pressure over-producing allies and regain market share. In other news, US crude oil output hit a record high of 13.49mb/d in March, surpassing the previous peak from October 2024, the EIA reported. However, demand for oil products fell to a 12-month low of 19.95 mb/d, highlighting a growing gap between supply and consumption. Libyan authorities have arrested three suspects linked to a militia that broke into the National Oil Corporation (NOC) headquarters in Tripoli, demanding jobs. The incident prompted the eastern Libyan government to threaten declaring force majeure on oilfields and export terminals, citing repeated assaults on the NOC. While NOC denies the break-in, tensions persist between the rival eastern and western governments. Finally the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $1.35/bbl and $2.56/bbl respectively.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Jun’25 380 E/W.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Jul’25 northwest Europe (NWE) naphtha crack.
We began with yet another flat week in Brent, before prices broke into the $66/bbl handle on 29 May. This support emerged from a US Federal Court blocking President Donald Trump’s tariffs, including the pre- “Liberation Day” fentanyl tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada. The Court of International Trade said the US President did not have “unbounded authority” to impose tariffs on the US’s trading partners. While the Trump administration has planned to appeal this decision, it undoubtedly brought short-lived zeal into financial markets. The US dollar index (DXY) broke above 100 this morning but has since fallen below this level. US equities surged in early trading, and while they have since softened a touch, they remain supported. As for oil, after hitting a zenith at $66.15/bbl this morning, the M1 Brent futures contract weakened to $64.25/bbl – back to its regularly scheduled programming for the past week. Some support may come from a 2.795mb draw in US crude oil inventories in the week ending 23 May, reported on 29 May. In addition, while this Saturday’s OPEC+ meeting may also provide some direction to price action, the market expects the producer group to agree on another accelerated supply hike in July, intensified by a confirmation from Kazakhstan this week. While the optics of such a hike are unequivocally bearish, OPEC+ has been overproducing. This nominal 411kb/d unwind in voluntary cuts will not result in a matching increase in actual barrels supplied to the market. Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see whether the market will react strongly to the OPEC+ hike or if we’ll continue to oscillate around a low-to-mid $60s range in the coming weeks.
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract fell most afternoon to $63.14/bbl at 15:18 BST. Prices have risen slightly to $63.43/bbl at 17:40 BST(time of writing). In the news, the EIA reported that US crude inventories fell by 2.8 mb last week to 440.4 mb, defying expectations for a slight increase. Gasoline and distillate stocks also dropped by 2.4mb and 724kb, respectively. Refinery runs and utilization rates declined, while crude imports fell by 532b/d. Cushing hub inventories rose slightly by 75k/b. In other news, Libya’s eastern government may declare force majeure on oil exports due to alleged assaults on the National Oil Corporation (NOC), though NOC denies any attack. The eastern faction, aligned with General Khalifa Haftar, controls many oilfields and may relocate NOC’s HQ to safer cities it controls. Despite recent clashes in Tripoli, NOC assures operations remain unaffected. International oil firms like BP, Eni, and Weatherford have recently resumed activities in Libya after years of conflict-related withdrawal. In OPEC related news, Kazakhstan has told OPEC+ it cannot cut oil production, citing contractual limits with international consortiums that control over 70% of its output and technical challenges at older, state-run fields. Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said the country may even raise output later this year. Deputy Energy Minister Alibek Zhamauov added that OPEC+ is expected to announce a new output hike at its Saturday meeting, with the exact volume to be confirmed then.Finally the front-month Jul/Aug and the 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.75/bbl and $1.96/bbl respectively.
The past two weeks have lent uncertainty to gasoline, with price action moving sideways. Weakness filtered in due to a trade house selling physical barges, spelling a bearish play, and from the Dangote refinery’s RFCC unit returning to operation sooner than expected. We saw crack selling flows at the start of the fortnight, with the Jun/Jul’25 EBOB crack roll declining from $0.70/bbl on 15 May to a low of $0.17/bbl on 20 May. Prices found support here, amid renewed buy-side interest in EBOB from European and British majors. The Jun/Jul crack roll rallied to $0.72/bbl on 23 May but saw pressure here and stands at $0.40/bbl at the time of writing. This past week saw low liquidity in Eastern and European gasoline, although volumes rose substantially in US gasoline. We saw players selling RBBRs and RBOB futures, which filtered into the downward correction we saw in Singapore 92 and EBOB cracks. However, Jun/Jul Singapore 92 has been relatively supported by a Middle Eastern major, hinting that June pricing may be stronger in the East.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
