Worldwide

Our latest energy derivatives stories across the World.

Latest News

Onyx Global Oil Balance

Update to Onyx Global Oil Balance: this update’s key revision revolves around supply, with lower non-OPEC supply growth in 2025 and an upward readjustment in Iraqi crude production following methodological changes by Petro-Logistics SA. Following a comprehensive review of Iraq’s crude balance, Petro-Logistics SA has reclassified “other” refinery feedstocks as crude oil, accounting for most of the revision in the country’s output.

This report contains Onyx Advisory’s Global Oil Liquids Balance, with projections of world oil supply (including OPEC crude oil production) and world oil demand to derive implied global oil stock changes by quarter.

The report is split into two parts: a detailed global balance on page 3 and a summary balance on page 4, which shows individual OPEC country crude production assumptions over the forecast period. The OPEC crude production level is contrasted with the ‘Call on OPEC’ crude to obtain the implied global stock change.

Historical data are sourced from the IEA, while Petro-logistics SA data are used for OPEC crude production.

COT Deep Dive – Fuel Oil 380 East/West

In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.

In this edition, we take a look at the Jun’25 Fuel Oil 380 East/West.

Weekly Oil Inventories Report

This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage

US EIA Weekly Report

This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report

COT Report: Countdown to OPEC Clarity

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 28 Apr 2025

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks in a timelier fashion relative to the official COT data. Over the past two weeks, net positions bottomed on 16 April at -145k lots, which was the lowest level since September 2024. Now, net positions are steadily increasing, rising to -93k lots by 28 April. RBOB is still the strongest underlying, at -3k lots, while Brent is the weakest, at -27k lots. Brent is quickly converging with WTI futures which is sitting at -26k lots.

Refinery Margins Report

Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.

ETFs Report

Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.

COT Deep Dive – Sing 92 Crack

In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.

In this seventh edition, we take a look at the May’25 Sing 92 Crack swap. 

Weekly Oil Inventories Report

This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage

COT Report: Bring on the Buyers

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

US EIA Weekly Report

This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Onyx Positioning Accumulator – 22 Apr 2025

This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.

Onyx Positioning Report – 22 Apr 2025

This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.

COT Report: After the Storm

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

US EIA Weekly Report

This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Onyx Positioning Accumulator – 15 Apr 2025

This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.

Onyx Positioning Report – 15 Apr 2025

This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.

OECD Oil Inventories held by industry

The report covers oil inventory data in the OECD held by industry in million barrels and days of forward demand, as provided by the International Energy Agency

Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 14 Apr 2025

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks in a timelier fashion relative to the official COT data. In crude futures, Brent and WTI futures recorded a 180% and 227% decline w/w to -35k lots and -32k lots, respectively. Interestingly, net length had dropped to -37k lots and -34k lots in Brent and WTI, respectively, on 9 Apr, highlighting more support mid-week despite the overall w/w decline. In refined products, gasoil and heating oil futures fell by 138% and 116%, respectively this week to -33k lots and -23k lots. Finally, RBOB futures saw a 180% decline w/w from +3.7k lots on 7 Apr to -13.4k lots on 11 Apr.

Refinery Margins Report

Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.

ETFs Report

Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.

COT Deep Dive – EBOB Crack

In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.

In this seventh edition, we take a look at the May’25 EBOB Crack swap. 
In this sixth edition, we take a look at the May’25 Mont Belvieu TET propane (C3 LST) swap. 

Weekly Oil Inventories Report

This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage

COT Report: Tariffs: Endgame 

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

US EIA Weekly Report

This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Onyx Positioning Report – 08 Apr 2025

This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.

Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 07 Apr 2025

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. CTAs initially increased their net length, which surpassed 0, and reached highs of 20k lots on 03 April. However, with flat price collapsing, CTA positions sharply reversed, falling to -88k lots by 07 April. However, outright positioning is yet to surpass the lows reached in early March. As such, there is capacity for CTAs to provide further downside to price action. RBOB remains the most bullish out of the underlyings, while Brent has become the most bearish, at -27k lots. As a result, gasoil is no longer the most bearish underlying.

ETFs Report

Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.

Refinery Margins Report

Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.

Edge Updates

The Officials: The Liquidity Report Volume 1 Issue 13

In the week ending May 2nd 2025, Brent and WTI front month futures contracts experienced declines in exchange-traded volumes, each by almost 16%, partly due to long holidays in China. By contrast, the front month contracts for gasoil, heating oil and RBOB jumped; particularly, gasoil stood out with the largest increase by nearly 37%. Meanwhile, the growth in exchange-traded volumes was pronounced in August and September tenors for most of the contracts except for WTI with modest declines.

The Officials: A stay of execution

Mercy from the Saudis! They hiked OSPs to Asia across grades by 20c/bbl – less than the monthly change in the Dubai structure would have implied. The Dubai physical premium averaged $1.645 in May trading, up 26c from the average during April trading, thus implying an OSP increase of around 25c. Given this context, the 20c hike looks rather kind! They need space in the market to place the extra 167 kb/d of Saudi supply coming in June!

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Opens Below $60/bbl

The Jul’25 Brent crude futures opened below $60/bbl overnight Monday, marking a $2 gap from Friday evening’s close. Prices steadily retraced higher above $60/bbl into the morning, reaching $60.51/bbl by 11:00 BST (time of writing). OPEC+ decided over the weekend to further speed up oil output hikes, by 411kb/d in June. The move comes despite weakening prices caused by fears of oversupply and economic weakness linked to Donald Trump’s trade war. Goldman Sachs has reduced their crude forecasts following this, with Brent/WTI averaging $60/56 in the remainder of 2025 and $56/52 in 2026, suggesting that the OPEC+ decision marks a shift towards supporting internal cohesion and to challenge US shale supply. President Trump told NBC on Sunday that he’s open to lowering tariffs on China “at some point,” citing their impact on trade between the two countries, while stressing that any future deal must be fair and confirming he has no plans to speak with President Xi this week. Shell is evaluating a potential takeover of BP amid its rival’s stock slump and strategic reset, but any move will depend on further oil price declines and whether a deal would quickly boost Shell’s free cash flow per share. Finally, the front (Jul/Aug) and 6-month (Jun/Jan) Brent futures spreads are at $0.32/bbl and $0.16/bbl respectively.

The Officials: Quota gymnastics

Price war? Battle for market share? A crack of the whip? The return to realism? Explanations for OPEC’s decision to consecutively accelerate production cut unwinds have been swirling. The market certainly reacted and the Asian session dropped to $59 on the open and just failed to regain the $60 handle by the close, coming in at $59.96/bbl. In difference to the previous announcement, however, this one was almost baked into the market consensus.

The Officials: All eyes on OPEC

The disruptors! OPEC+ brought forward its meeting to tomorrow! The market didn’t expect that and Brent futures fell to below $61 on the reports. Is it just a coincidence that this puts the meeting on the weekend, outside of trading hours, when any market impact can be tempered? Looks like it to us… announcing a change on the weekend will give the market time to digest the impact and hopefully avoid an overextension in reaction. We’re also hearing reports that delegates are already discussing their decision. To cut to the chase, the cats are fighting and anxious about the consequences of their announcements and collapsing prices.

European Window: Brent Supported at $61.00/bbl

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices initially move up to $62.16/bbl at 14:09 BST only to quicky fall to $60.74/bbl at 15:04 BST. Prices have since gained some support at $61.37/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing). In the news, China is reportedly considering ways to address the Trump administration’s concerns over its role in the fentanyl trade, as per WSJ, potentially offering a way to allow for trade talks to begin. OPEC+ has moved its key meeting to Saturday, 3 May, to finalise plans for a June potential output hike of 411kb/d. Saudi Arabia appears ready to tolerate low prices, signalling growing frustration with overproducers like Iraq and Kazakhstan. April’s actual output fell despite planned increases. In other news, Exxon Mobil beat Wall Street’s Q1 expectations with a $7.71B, driven by higher oil and gas production from Guyana and the Permian Basin. Exxon maintained strong shareholder returns on track for its $20B annual repurchase goal. Production rose to 4.55 mboe/d, and the company reiterated its $27B–$29B capex target for 2025. Shell beat Q1 profit forecasts with $5.58B in earnings, despite a 28% drop from last year due to weaker oil prices and refining margins. It maintained a $3.5B share buyback, unlike BP, which cut returns. Petronas confirmed it received notices from the Sarawak state government over licensing issues tied to its subsidiary, Petronas Carigali, which local media say is operating without proper permits. The state gave 21 days to comply or face penalties. Petronas insists it operates under federal law and aims to resolve the matter collaboratively. Finally the front month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $0.60/bbl respectively.

The Officials: ‘New month, new me’ in Dubai!

While on the surface globally crude seems hands off, in Dubai it’s time to flip the script! Gone are the days of early-month caginess and jockeying for position in the physical window. PC and Vitol (and Gunvor) reversed roles and gave us a neck ache. Seller becomes the buyer and the other way around. This’s just a reflection of spread trading. Where you sold one month and bought the other one. Sadly, both Vitol and PC have to play the reverse role when the month expires and rolls into the new one.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Softens Below $62/bbl

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract softened this morning, declining from around $62.70/bbl at 03:25 BST to $61.70/bbl at 10:20 BST. At the time of writing (11:15 BST), the contract stands a little higher at $61.90/bbl. China is reportedly “evaluating” an offer from the US to hold talks over the ongoing trade war between the two nations, as per China’s Commerce Ministry. This acknowledgement of an offer signals a possible de-escalation in the trade war, which has injected substantial volatility across global financial markets over the past month. China’s commerce ministry further added that the US should be prepared to correct “erroneous practices” and that it needed to show “sincerity” in any negotiations.

The Officials: Phys through the floor!

Brent rolled… out of bed and fell to the $60 floor! Yesterday afternoon’s pre-expiry selloff brought July Brent down to hover just
above $61 and it dropped on the open this morning. Brent slipped as low as $59.30 around lunchtime but fought to regain the $60
handle and even rose beyond $61.50 by 15:00 BST. A trader said confidently, this is the floor! After the June/July Brent spread was
so strong for so long, the July/August spread that’s now taken the position of prompt spread is languishing near 30c.

Trader Meeting Notes: Opaque OPEC

Down is up and up is down this week. Speculation has been wild about which way the collective OPEC thumb will point. The main victim in this has been Dubai crude, which has been under heavy pressure amid the likelihood of extra barrels from the Middle East. Saudi Arabia reminded the market that they can drop hints as unsubtle as they please, as they wondered out loud if a price war would make everyone behave. How many grains of salt to take this with is tricky. The USD held quite well despite disappointing GDP figures. Disappointing to some! We are looking at the ‘best negative print for GDP’ that Peter Navarro has seen. This topsy-turvy regime has been volatile, but after the golden week, the OPEC decision, and the UK bank holiday, some clarity is on the horizon.

European Window: Brent Above $61.00/bbl

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally from $59.42/bbl at 12:00 BST to $61.78/bbl at 15:42 BST. Prices have since fallen off and are at $61.01/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, the US and Ukraine have signed a deal to share future profits from Ukraine’s mineral and energy reserves. The agreement also establishes a US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund and includes provisions giving the US access to some of Ukraine’s natural resources in return for future security guarantees. In other news, Saudi Arabia may increase oil output starting in June. Sources told Reuters and Bloomberg that the Saudis, comfortable with current low prices, are unlikely to support further supply cuts and may instead boost production to regain market share. Venezuela’s oil exports fell nearly 20% in April to about 700kb/d , the lowest in nine months, after state-run PDVSA suspended most Chevron cargoes over payment concerns tied to US sanctions enforcement. Chevron’s exports to the US dropped 69%, while other buyers like Reliance and Maurel & Prom increased imports ahead of a 27 May sanctions deadline. Meanwhile, Venezuela boosted imports of diluents like naphtha and began exporting a new crude grade, Blend 22. The IMF has cut its 2025 growth forecast for Middle East oil exporters to 2.3%, down from 4% previously, citing falling oil prices, weak demand, and ongoing trade tensions. It now expects oil to average $66.90/bbl due to rising non-OPEC+ supply and reduced global demand. Finally, he front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan spreads are at $0.35/bbl and $0.60/bbl respectively.

CFTC Predictor: Drill Baby Drill

In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.

The Officials: Europe April Monthly Report

The market is gearing up for war, on the oil pricing battlefield. The Officials heard that the Saudis are preparing for a 1-2 year price war, while other reports suggest they are fed up with carrying responsibility for OPEC cuts.
The May DFL sold off pretty aggressively yesterday to dip under 60c and it kept going today, falling to below 40c just after the window. Today’s North Sea window followed much the same pattern as yesterday’s: Exxon and Gunvor came in to offer Midland again, each with a cargo at May 15-19 and May 28-June 1 at +$1 and +$1.55 over Dated, while BP bid for several Johan Sverdrup cargoes. Eni made an appearance for the first time in a while, offering a May 26-28 Forties cargo at Dated +$0.40. A broader selection up for grabs, but no buyers were tempted forth to take advantage of the menu. With such lacklustre buyside interest, the physical diff dropped again to 12c.

European Window: Brent Drops sub-$61.00/bbl

Jul’25 Brent futures saw heavy losses this afternoon, from $62.80/bbl at 16.35 BST to lows of $60.80/bbl at 16.55 BST before it retraced slightly to $61.30/bbl at 17.10 BST (time of writing). Reuters reported that Saudi Arabian officials are briefing allies and industry experts to say the kingdom is unwilling to prop up the oil market with further supply cuts and can handle a prolonged period of low prices, five sources with knowledge of the talks said. In 2024, Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports (including re-exports) rose by 13.1%, signalling progress in diversifying its economy. However, total merchandise exports fell by 4.5% while imports rose 12.5%, narrowing the trade surplus to SR272.6 billion. Oil’s share of total exports dropped to 73.1%. Nexanteca reported that the Middle East is projected to boost oil refining capacity by 618 kb/d by 2029, led by Iraq and Iran, enhancing its net export potential to nearly 7 mb/d by 2040. Key projects in Iraq, Iran, Bahrain, and Oman are underway, while others in Saudi Arabia and the UAE await investment decisions. According to the EIA, US crude inventories fell by 2.696 mb last week (exp +0.39mb). Cushing stocks rose by 682kb, gasoline dropped 4mb, and distillates increased by 0.937mb. Jun/Jul and 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $1.92/bbl and $2.49/bbl, respectively.

The Officials: Asia April Monthly Report

We feel like we always open the editorial with “what a month”, but at the moment each month seems to bring more and more excitement in markets. But boy has April been a long month, despite only having 30 days. That’s because it’s been so jam packed with major events and news! Tariffs, geopolitical strife, a rollercoaster Dubai spot market – see more on that below – we’ve been through a lot of ups and downs this month, rather like the markets as a whole.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Rallies to $62.95/bbl

The Jul’25 Futures contract saw prices initially fall to $62.13/bbl at 09:28 BST before rallying up to $62.95/bbl at 10:59 BST. Prices have slightly fallen off to $62.68/bbl at 11:50 BST (time of writing). In the news, TotalEnergies reported an 18% drop in adjusted net income for Q1 2025, coming in at $4.2B, slightly below expectations. Despite a 4% increase in oil and gas production, earnings fell across most segments due to lower oil prices and weaker refining margins. Net debt nearly doubled to $20.1 billion, driven by seasonal working capital needs. LNG was the only segment to post y/y profit growth. Petrobras kept oil production flat in Q1 2025 at 2.77 mb/d, down 0.2% y/y but up 5.4% from Q4. Gains from new Floating Production, Storage, and Offloading units (FPSOs) and fewer outages offset natural declines. Crude output fell 1% to 2.21 mb/d. The company aims to boost Buzios field output to 2 mb/d by 2030. Proven reserves rose to 11.4 B barrels. Petrobras plans to invest $111B through 2029, with $77B for oil and gas. In other news, Koch’s Minerals & Trading is exiting oil and fuels trading to focus on more consumer-oriented areas such as metals, maritime transport, and natural gas products, a spokesperson confirmed on Tuesday. The move follows earlier reports of staff departures in its global oil trading division. Finally, the front month Jun/Jul and 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $0.92/bbl and $1.68/bbl respectively.

The Officials: Phys diff fizzles out

It’s been a long, steady slide for flat price in the final week of April, from around $68.50 on 23 April towards the mid-$64 level today. Despite this $4/bbl decline in under a week, the front spread has remained solid throughout and even stretched to $1.14 yesterday before coming off to 95c by today’s European close. But there’s a divergence emerging between the physical market and futures. While futures retain strong backwardation in the prompt, the recent physical strength we’ve seen in the North Sea has dissipated: the physical diff has plunged to 15c, from $1.17 last Wednesday and the May DFL tumbled from above $1.10 yesterday to below 60c today.

Technical Analysis Report: Slowing Down

The front-month Brent futures saw a bearish reversal over the past week, falling below $65/bbl by 29 April (time of writing). Price initially met with resistance against the Bollinger 20-day moving average and eventually tested successfully to the downside the 10-day moving average (blue line) on 28 April, hitherto a short-term support. The next stop lower from here will likely be the lower Bollinger near $60.40/bbl. A break below quickly opens up the testing of the $60/bbl psychological level support line. The longer-term support levels available to Brent are lower still at $56.50/bbl from the resistance level of January 2021. In contrast, to the upside, the next hurdle could be $68.70/bbl, which aligns with the lows reached in March and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from January highs and April lows. Beyond that, the $74/bbl level comes into play, as it matches the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, February support, and early April highs.

European Window: Brent Drops to $63.10/bbl

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw a volatile afternoon, trading between $63.91/bbl at 13:02 BST and $63.10/bbl at 17:38 BST (time of writing). In the news, Scotland’s only oil refinery at Grangemouth has permanently stopped processing crude oil after 100 years of operation, following a decision announced in 2024 by owner Petroineos. The site will now function as an import and distribution hub for fuels. The closure, attributed to competition from modern refineries in Asia and the Middle East, has led to 430 job losses, with around 70 staff remaining. India is significantly increasing its imports of US crude oil ahead of key negotiations over American tariffs. Around 11.2mb are expected to arrive in June driven by state refiners like Indian Oil and BPCL. The move is seen as a strategic effort to strengthen ties and potentially reduce US tariffs. Other Asian nations, including Thailand and South Korea, are also boosting US energy purchases to avoid tariffs. In other news, PetroChina reported a 2.3% rise in first-quarter profit to $6.4B, making it the only Chinese state oil giant to post higher earnings amid weaker oil prices. Its crude oil price fell 7.2% year-on-year, while domestic gas prices dipped 3.9%. However, stronger natural gas production and sales drove a 9.7% gain in gas division profits, offsetting declines in refining. Overall revenue fell 7.3% due to lower demand for refined products. Meanwhile, Sinopec and CNOOC both reported profit declines. Finally, the front month Jun/Jul and 6-mont Jun/Dec spreads are at $0.80/bbl and $1.41/bbl respectively.

Dated Brent Report – Marginal Disconnect

The Dated Brent market continues to drift lower, with the May’25 DFL falling from a high of over $1.40/bbl last Wednesday (23 Apr) to $0.70/bbl at the time of writing on 29 Apr. Simultaneously, the lower crude levels have supported the M1 European refinery margin, which strengthened from $6.75/bbl on 23 Apr to $8.10/bbl at the time of writing. We saw banks selling the DFL to hedge these high margin levels, which drift higher as Dated Brent weakens further.

The Officials: The Liquidity Report Volume 1 Issue 12

After the previous week’s sharp drop, the week ending April 25th saw some signs of reversal in exchange-traded futures volumes for longer tenors. As the end of the month and June Brent expiry approach, exchange-traded futures volumes across front-month contracts fell with the clear exception of WTI. By contrast, as shown in our momentum table, all contracts for July and August either showed modest decreases or jumped significantly. Brent and WTI futures were the clear standouts, with volumes growing by 30-60% for these tenors.

The Officials: Dubai buyers go bye bye!

The Dubai buyside is a ghost town. Once Vitol had a couple of bids hit by PetroChina to complete a convergence – for which PC nominated a Dubai cargo – the tradehouse disappeared entirely from the window. The final bid was placed over 12 minutes before the window’s close and the remainder was a sea of PC, Hengli, BP and Reliance offers. By the end, Dubai partials had fallen to $64.64/bbl, down from $66.85/bbl yesterday and the physical premium got absolutely crushed – down to just 59c! Since Wednesday, the premiums dropped by $1.16! This is now the weakest physical premium since 29 November – since Totsa took the bull by the horns and upended the Dubai market.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Below $64.00/bbl

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract fell off this morning from $64.29/bbl at 09:31 BST to $ 63.64/bbl at 09:59 BST. Prices then rallied to $64.13/bbl at 10:37 BST before falling to $63.54/bbl at 12:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, power has been mostly restored in Spain and Portugal after a massive blackout on Monday, a spokesperson for Petronor said that their Bilbao refinery is gradually restarting. Spain lost 60% of its power due to a sudden grid failure linked to its connection with France. Authorities are investigating, with experts warning the high reliance on renewable energy may complicate grid stability. In other news, BP’s first-quarter profit fell 48% to $1.38B, below the expected $1.53B, due to weaker refining, gas trading, and lower production after asset sale. Strategy chief Giulia Chierchia will step down in June as CEO Murray Auchincloss faces pressure from activist investor Elliott to improve returns and cut costs. BP cut its capital spending plan to $14.5B for 2024 and slowed share buybacks to $750 million for the quarter. Several former Shell traders have launched Atmin, a Dubai-based oil trading firm focused on Africa, with financial backing from Afreximbank. Led by ex-Shell executive Ajay Oommen, Atmin aims to start with crude oil trading and expand into oil products and minerals. Afreximbank, which will hold a controlling stake, also announced a $3B financing program to support African and Caribbean fuel imports as major oil players retreat from the region. Finally, the front month Jun/Jul spread is at $0.94/bbl and the 6-month Jun/Dec Spread is at $1.74/bbl.

The Officials: Lights Out!

The lights are out! Moeve (formerly Cepsa) said it had halted operations at its Spanish refineries as they have no power to make them run. And Repsol had the same problem. You can’t even pay for anything! Contactless payment methods are apparently not working due to the power outage. Cash is king! People even got stuck on a rollercoaster. Carnage!

European Window: Brent Falls to $64.37/bbl

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract initially rallied to $65.81/bbl at 14:30 BST before falling off to $64.37/bbl at 17:50 BST (time of writing). In the news, a massive power outage hit Spain and Portugal, disrupting flights, traffic, hospitals, and businesses. Power started returning in parts of Spain, but full restoration could take hours. Several Spanish oil refineries, including both operated by Moeve and Petronor’s Bilbao refinery shut down. Moeve, owned by Mubadala and Carlyle Group, confirmed its plants were halted, while Repsol, Spain’s largest refinery operator, has not yet replied to a Reuters request for comment. Greek shipowners are re-entering the Russian Urals oil market as falling prices push crude below the $60/bbl Western price cap, allowing them to legally provide transport and insurance, three sources told Reuters. Companies like Minerva Marine, Dynacom, and TMS Tankers resumed shipments in April after being absent last year. In other news, Exxon Mobil and Chevron are due to report their earnings this week, with investors focusing on how falling oil prices could impact dividends and share buybacks for the rest of 2025. Lower oil prices, have raised concerns that Big Oil could cut back on returning cash to shareholders. Exxon is seen as better positioned to maintain its payouts compared to Chevron, which might reduce buybacks if weak prices persist. Finally the front month Jun/Jul and 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $1.03/bbl and $2.05/bbl respectively.

Onyx Alpha: Gearing up for Summer

Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in naphtha, gasoline and gasoil swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.

Naphtha Report: Hitting a TOP-J?

The naphtha market flipped to seeing support following 10 Apr, with the front-month (May’25) NWE naphtha crack rallying from -$4.80/bbl on 8 Apr to -$3.35/bbl at the time of writing on 28 Apr. The soon-to-be M1 Jun’25 NWE crack climbed from a low of -$5.35/bbl on 10 Apr to briefly hitting -$3.50/bbl on 25 Apr, where it met resistance. NWE naphtha’s strength this fortnight was likely driven by NWE gasnaph selling, with refiners and trade houses selling over 585kb of the Jun’25 NWE gasnaph against Onyx since 15 Apr. We also saw gasoline-focused trade houses add to their long positions in the soon-to-be-Bal May/Jun’25 NWE naphtha spread while AG refiners were seen short covering in May/Jun’25 spreads from $7/mt up to $8.50/mt – supporting NWE naphtha structure.

The Officials: Brent bears down on Dubai

Look at the Dubai partials to prompt Brent futures spread! Dubai has fallen! It’s tight as the two benchmarks battle for the lead like a pair of race cars edging for the lead. On Friday, Dubai partials held a 63c premium over Brent futures but today that has plummeted to just 2c! Excluding a brief flip on 4 March, this is the weakest Dubai has been relative to Brent since 19 December 2024!!!

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Falls to $65.48/bbl

The Jun’25 Brent futures contract saw prices initially rally to $67.34/bbl at 07:12 BST before falling off to $66.48/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, uncertainty over US-China trade talks and potential OPEC+ supply increase weighed on markets. In Iran an explosion in the Port of Bandar Abbas has killed at least 40 people and has left more that 1,200 injured. In other news, Portugal’s Galp Energia reported a 29% drop in first-quarter core profit to €669 million ($759.75 million), slightly above expectations, due to lower oil output and refining margins. Adjusted net profit fell 41% to €192 million ($218.04 million). Oil and gas production dropped 3% to 104 kb/d. Despite the decline, Galp maintained its full-year production guidance and highlighted exploration successes in Namibia. Estonia has released the oil tanker Kiwala, previously detained for sailing without a valid flag and suspected of being part of a sanctions-evading “shadow fleet.” The tanker was freed after Djibouti confirmed it would temporarily register the vessel until May 7. Kiwala is now anchored near Russia’s Ust-Luga port. Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC will raise $1.5 billion from its first Islamic bond (sukuk) sale, priced at 60 basis points over US Treasuries. The 10-year sukuk, issued via ADNOC Murban, drew over $3.85B in demand and proceeds will go toward general corporate purposes. Finally the front month Jun/Jul and 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $1.06/bbl and $2.31/bbl respectively.

CFTC Weekly: Cautiously Bullish

In the week ending 22 Apr, the benchmark crude futures contracts (Brent + WTI) witnessed a bullish shift in sentiment, following two bearish weeks. Long-positioned money managers added a total of 21.6mb (5.55% w/w). At the same time, short-positioned players were seen removing 54.9mb (-25% w/w) from their positions. There was an addition of length in both contracts, but this was slightly more considerable in the US benchmark, which saw a 9% addition compared to a 3% increase in Brent. Brent saw a smaller removal of shorts, too. This allowed for the combined long positioning to increase by 21.7mb (5.55%) and the combined short removal of 54.9mb (-24.6%)

The Officials: Schrödinger’s meeting

Sometimes songs encapsulate the reality show we are in. And even the name of the group, ‘Lost Frequencies,’ fits the narrative. We copy some of the lyrics: ‘Stop claiming what you own and think about the show: “We’re all playing the same game, waiting on our loan. Decisions as I go, to anywhere I flow. / Sometimes I believe, at times I’m rational. I can fly high, I can go low. / Today I got a million, / Tomorrow, I don’t know.”

European Window: Brent Rallies to $66.86/bbl

The Jun’25 Brent Futures saw prices slowly rally from $65.57/bbl at 12:30 BST up to $66.86/bbl at 18:32 BST (time of writing). In the news, US refiner Phillips 66 reported a larger-than-expected first-quarter loss due to lower refining margins and major turnaround activities at its plants. The refining unit posted a $937 million loss, compared to a $216 million profit a year earlier, with realized margins falling 38% to $6.81/bbl. Crude capacity utilization dropped to 80% from 92% last year. In other news, Iraq has sent a delegation to Syria to discuss reviving an oil pipeline that once carried crude to the Mediterranean, aiming to boost trade and regional cooperation. Talks also include border security and counterterrorism. The visit follows Syria’s post-Assad transition and recent oil shipments from Kurdish-controlled areas to the new central government, supported by eased EU sanctions. Activist investor Elliott Management, holding over 5% of BP’s shares, is pushing for strategic changes, including removing strategy chief Giulia Chierchia and splitting BP’s upstream and downstream units. The activist investor wants spending cuts and reduced low-carbon investments to boost free cash flow by 40% by 2027. BP has already begun shifting back to oil and gas under CEO Murray Auchincloss but faces pressure as oil prices fall. Finally, the front month Jun/Jul and the 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $0.83/bbl and  $2.34/bbl respectively.

Fuel Oil Report – Positively Cracked

High Sulphur Fuel Oil contracts saw continued strength over the past two weeks, reinforcing the market’s bullish attitude towards summer demand. The prompt 3.5% barge crack rallied up to -$1.25/bbl, while the 380 East/West (Sing 380 vs 3.5% barges) surpassed $20/mt. However, sentiment reversed following the Easter break, with selling flows seeing prices correct lower. The notable flow was selling in the Jun 380 East/West, which pressured the Jun/Jul box down from $8 to below $2/mt. In the East/West, Chinese majors were on the buy side, while trade houses and end users were on the sell side. Despite these selling flows, the front 380 cracks remain comfortably above $0/bbl. The Visco (Sing 180 vs Sing 380) saw strength as May rallied from $11 to $16/mt, supported by buying from Middle Eastern NOCs.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Below $66.00

The Jun’25 Brent futures contract saw prices fall off from $67.00/bbl at 07:02 BST down to $65.92/bbl at 11:38 BST (time of writing). In the news, the US Interior Department has introduced new rules allowing greater pressure differences in offshore drilling in the Wilcox formation of the Gulf of Mexico. The move, led by Trump’s Energy Dominance Council, aims to boost oil output and reduce regulatory burdens. The updated downhole commingling guidelines increase the allowable pressure differential from 200 psi to 1,500 psi, potentially adding 100kb/d in output over the next decade. Russia is accelerating new oil well drilling at its fastest pace in five years, despite falling oil prices, according to Bloomberg. Activity is now 30% higher than before the Ukraine war, showing the oil sector’s resilience to Western sanctions, which aimed to cripple the industry by cutting off access to Western tech and services. Production capacity has returned to 2016 levels—between 11mb/d and 11.5 mb/d. In other news, some small US shale producers are cutting back on drilling as oil prices fall to multi-year lows and tariffs raise costs, threatening future output growth. US production is still expected to hit a record 13.7mb/d in 2025, but growth forecasts have been cut by both the EIA and IEA. Producers like Blackridge Resources and Arena Resources are delaying drilling plans due to weak prices and high costs, with some saying $60/bbl isn’t profitable in many regions. Finally the front month Jun/Jul and 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $0.91/bbl and $2.17/bbl respectively.