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Our latest energy derivatives stories across the World.
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COT Deep Dive – Sing 0.5% Crack
In this edition, we take a look at the Jan’26 Sing 0.5% crack.
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
COT Report: Winter Hibernation
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
Onyx Positioning Report – 02 December 2025
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Flux CFTC Style COT Reports – 01 December 2025
Looking at Flux Insight’s CTA positioning for the week ending 01 Dec, CTA net positioning across all listed futures dropped w/w, particularly in middle distillates, which decreased d/d this week. In Brent, however, CTA positioning reached a low of -30k lots on 26 Nov before rising to -27k lots by 01 Dec. RBOB followed a similar trend, seeing a muted d/d increase between 28 Nov-01 Dec, reaching -26k lots on 01 Dec.
Refinery Margins Report
In the week ending 21 November, Refinery Margins contracted across all regions: Asian M1 Margins down to $12.64/bbl (-$0.42/bbl w/w), European M1 Margins down to $10.53/bbl (-$1.83/bbl w/w), and US Margins down to $16.51/bbl (+$1.95/bbl w/w).
Asian margins were driven down by Sing 92 cracks, which fell by -$2.70/bbl w/w. The 380 Brent Crack and the Sing 0.5 Crack also fell on the week by -$1.09/bbl and -$1.53/bbl respectively. Dubai Cracks also contracted, 92 Dubai Crack, fell by -$2.543/bbl and 380 Dubai Cracks fell by -$1.37/bbl.
In Europe EBOB crack was the biggest mover, falling by -$2.61/bbl w/w, while 3.5 Barges Cracks also weakened, falling by -$2.04/bbl.
Weekly Oil Inventories Report
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
COT Deep Dive – Gasoline E/W
In this edition, we take a look at the Jan’26 Gasoline East/West.
COT Deep Dive – FEI Propane
In this edition, we take a look at the Dec/Jan’26 FEI propane.
COT Report: Early Black Friday Sale
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx Positioning Report – 25 November 2025
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Flux CFTC Style COT Reports – 24 November 2025
Looking at Flux Insight’s CTA positioning for the week ending 24 Nov, CTA positioning across all of the listed futures contract reached a peak and net dropped as there was a bearish shift across all products and crude contract. This was most clear in RBOB, and the middle distillate contracts. Heating oil reached a high of +28.5k lots on 19 Nov but dropped to +17.24k lots on 24 Nov, its lowest in 20 days. This pattern was similar in gasoil. RBOB was fairly flat around -4k lots 17-19 Nov before dropping to 21-day lows of -16.8k lots on 24 Nov.
Refinery Margins Report
In the week ending 21 November, Refinery Margins contracted across all regions: Asian M1 Margins down to $12.64/bbl (-$0.42/bbl w/w), European M1 Margins down to $10.53/bbl (-$1.83/bbl w/w), and US Margins down to $16.51/bbl (+$1.95/bbl w/w).
Asian margins were driven down by Sing 92 cracks, which fell by -$2.70/bbl w/w. The 380 Brent Crack and the Sing 0.5 Crack also fell on the week by -$1.09/bbl and -$1.53/bbl respectively. Dubai Cracks also contracted, 92 Dubai Crack, fell by -$2.543/bbl and 380 Dubai Cracks fell by -$1.37/bbl.
In Europe EBOB crack was the biggest mover, falling by -$2.61/bbl w/w, while 3.5 Barges Cracks also weakened, falling by -$2.04/bbl.
COT Deep Dive – EBOB Crack
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis, to identify potential
COT Deep Dive – Naphtha E/W
In this edition, we take a look at the Dec’25 Naphtha E/W.
Weekly Oil Inventories Report
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
COT Report: Are the Margins Cracking?
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx Positioning Report – 18 November 2025
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Refinery Margins Report
In the week ending 14 November, Refinery Margins continued to rise across all regions: Asian M1 Margins up to $14.15/bbl (+$0.94/bbl w/w), European M1 Margins up to $12.36/bbl (+$0.59/bbl w/w), and US Margins up to $18.46/bbl (+$1.08/bbl w/w). Asian margins were driven up by Sing 92 cracks, which increased by +$0.45/bbl w/w. The 380 Brent Crack was the biggest mover, decreasing by -$1.16/bbl w/w, the 92 Brent Crack was close, increasing by +$0.94/bbl w/w.In Europe, the EBOB Brent crack was the biggest mover, increasing by +$1.82/bbl w/w.
Weekly Oil Inventories Report
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
COT Deep Dive – Dated/Brent (DFL)
In this edition, we take a look at the Dec’25 Dated/Brent (DFL).
COT Deep Dive – 0.5% East/West
In this edition, we take a look at the Dec’25 0.5% East/West.
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
COT Report: High on Gasoline
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
Broadcaster Lisa Aziz appointed as permanent Host of Flux News
London, Monday 10th November 2025 – Flux News is proud to announce the appointment of veteran TV and Radio journalist, Lisa Aziz, as the official Host of Flux News, bringing her unparalleled broadcasting experience to the network’s flagship programming. With
Onyx Positioning Report – 11 November 2025
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Flux CFTC Style COT Reports – 10 November 2025
Looking at Flux Insight’s CTA positioning for the week ending 10 Nov, CTA positioning in gasoil and heating oil continues to be extremely strong, with both products almost equal at +22k lots. This positioning lies at the tail end of historical ranges, which may encourage a mean-reversion of prices in the near-term. The strength across the barrel is not uniform, and although net positioning in Brent and WTI inched up initially in the week, they both dropped to see w/w losses and remained well in the negative territory. There has, however, seemed to be a refreshed bearish attitude in the crude flat prices, with Brent and WTI losing around 6k lots from 04-07 Nov. Although RBOB remains negative, it has continued to move up in the week, reaching its highest level since mid-August, well post-driving season.
Refinery Margins Report
In the week ending 07 November, Refinery Margins rose across all regions: Asian M1 Margins up to $13.21/bbl (+$0.64/bbl w/w), European M1 Margins up to $11.77/bbl (+$0.56/bbl w/w), and US Margins up to $17.38/bbl (+$0.65/bbl w/w).
Asian margins were driven up by 92 Brent Crack and Dubai 92 Crack which increased by +$1.81/bbl w/w and +$2.01/bbl w/w respectively. The S10 Brent Crack was the biggest mover, increasing by +$2.87/bbl w/w, the Kero Dubai Crack was close by increasing by +$2.75/bbl w/w.
In Europe ICE Gasoil crack was the biggest mover, increasing by +$3.19/bbl w/w, EBOB Cracks also saw strength, increasing by $2.63/bbl.
COT Deep Dive – Gasoline TA Arb
In this edition, we take a look at the Dec’25 Gasoline TA Arb.
COT Deep Dive – NWE Naphtha Crack
In this edition, we take a look at the Dec’25 NWE Naphtha Crack.
Weekly Oil Inventories Report
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
COT Report: The Bulls are Tired
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
Edge Updates
European Window: Brent Eases to $63.60/bbl
The Feb’26 Brent futures contract failed to maintain strength above the $64.00/bbl handle this afternoon, easing from $64.08/bbl at 15:30 GMT to $63.60/bbl at 16:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, local Russian emergency centres have reported a fire at Russia’s Azov Sea port of Temryuk, due to a Ukrainian drone attack. The fire occurred at the Maktren-Nafta LPG transhipment terminal, which handles LPG exports from Russian and Kazakh producers. According to Reuters, between January and October 2025, the terminal handled roughly 220kt of LPG. Elsewhere, according to The Officials sources, Kuwait’s Al Zour refinery will be in maintenance until the end of December, rather than the planned 9th of December restart date. Meanwhile, Russian ESPO blend crude loading in December has been traded at a $5-6/bbl discount to ICE Brent in Chinese ports, following a decline in demand as Chinese state refiners ceased buying due to Western sanctions. This discount marks the weakest differential on record. In other news, Reuters reported that the G7 and EU are negotiating to replace a price cap on Russian oil exports with a complete ban on maritime services, aiming to cut the oil revenue that supports Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine. Russia exports over a third of its oil via Western tankers, mainly to India and China, using Western shipping services. The ban would effectively end this trade, which is primarily carried out by EU maritime countries, including Greece, Cyprus, and Malta. In macroeconomics, stronger-than-expected Canadian domestic jobs data has caused the Canadian dollar to strengthen the most in 6 months against the US dollar. Finally, the front-month (Feb/Mar’26) and 6-month (Feb/Aug’26) spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $1.01/bbl, respectively.
The Officials: Hope you were long!
Above $64 for the first time since 19 November! We told ya! Do not believe the super glut narratives, throw them in the bin, above the heads of all the short only consultants, ship trackers and bankers. A surge just before 14:30 GMT from under $63.20 to a high at $64.10 by 15:30. It moved down through the window to hit $63.76/bbl by the close. But the prompt spread didn’t keep up with that and rose only a few cents to 42c before falling back to 40c by the close.
The Officials: Peering Eye 1.3
Dear reader enjoy the expanded version of The Officials Peering Eye, where we cover weekly activity in key shipping hubs around the world, expanding to Suez Canal, Panama Canal – or US Canal to make sure the orange man doesn’t turn red – as well as Al Zour refinery and the usual information and graphics about Indian ports just as Putin and PM Modi rekindle their friendship 🤣.
The Officials: Congrats to the happy couple
Love and kisses and sweet nothings in the ear. The love, the love… just flowing among long-time friends. Putin and Modi are really the best of friends. Anybody feeling jealous? Trump, Rubio? It is obvious that some like to treat countries with a stick and others with carrots and this approach yields predictable results.
Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent sits rangebound above $63/bbl
The Feb’26 Brent futures contract closed above the $63/bbl handle on 04 Dec, where it continues to stand. We saw resistance at $63.40/bbl at 09:30 GMT this morning, with subsequent support at $63.10/bbl at 10:20 GMT.
Copper Rallies Again, India’s Rate Cuts, Secondary US Employment Data, Oklo Up
Copper rallies another +2.3% to new all-time highs as the markets new favourite trade. Silver and Japanese yields continue trending higher too. Global yields starting to grind higher too with the U.S. 2s/10s curve steepening to 58bp. While the dollar finally has a positive day after its 9-day decline – matching the longest slide in 30 years.
US PLANS MORE STAKES IN MINERALS COMPANIES, TRUMP OFFICIAL SAYS
First Google, now Amazon – *AMAZON SAYS NEW CHIPS ARE MORE COST EFFECTIVE THAN NVIDIA’S
UK NOV. CONSTRUCTION PMI FALLS TO 39.4; FORECAST 44.6
India cuts rates to 5.25% as expected as central bank flags ‘weakness in some key economic indicators.
Mixed signals from secondary U.S. employment data:
U.S. small businesses shed 120,000 jobs in November, the steepest decline since May 2020, per ADP.
US Layoffs are running at crisis pace. U.S. companies announced 153,074 job cuts in October, nearly TRIPLING from 2024. It was the WORST October in 22 years. YTD, layoffs have reached 1,099,500, up +65% YoY, nearing GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS levels
Jobless claims fall to 191k, estimated 220k, much stronger than expected.
U.S. temporary hiring has re-accelerated, perhaps an early signal we may be coming out of the slowdown. (Chart 1, Steno Research, Macrobond, Bloomberg)
Russell 2000 Index +15% ytd, Profitable Russell: +9.7%, Unprofitable Russell: +45% ….hhmmm!
Pay more, get less: “US sales on Black Friday hit $18 billion, up 3% compared with a year earlier…. But US shoppers purchased 2% fewer items at checkout, and with average prices up 7%, shoppers made 1% fewer online orders.” (Chart 2, Census Bureau, Bianco Research)
ANTHROPIC’S CEO WARNS THAT SOME AI GIANTS ARE TAKING RECKLESS, HUNDREDS-OF-BILLIONS SPENDING RISKS ON DATA CENTERS AND CHIPS, SAYING THE INDUSTRY IS GAMBLING ON UNCERTAIN ECONOMIC PAYOFFS.
Oklo, is now up +24% this week after Jensen Huang said the future of AI will be powered by “small nuclear reactors.”
Data today – US PCE deflator (inflation), UniMich consumer confidence
Trader Meeting Notes: Volatility, Where Art Thou?
M1 Brent futures fell into yet another lull, with the 50-day moving average still acting like a brick wall for more than two months now. On the products side, CTA net positioning in ICE gasoil and CME heating oil has flipped to net short, based on Flux Insight’s CTA model, while positioning in RBOB, Brent, and WTI futures has just been consolidating in the negatives all week. Risk appetite has been eroding into year-end, with open interest in ICE gasoil futures declining for a third consecutive week. On top of that, we seem to be stuck at an impasse on peace negotiations between the US and Russia, with this week’s efforts ending in Russian President Vladimir Putin telling European leaders he was ready for war and accusing them of sabotaging genuine Russian peace efforts. We’re also flying through a bit of a data fog, with continued lags in CME COT data as the US plays catch-up after the shutdown (thank God for Flux’s timely CTA positioning). With that in mind, focus has shifted to private labour market data such as the ADP jobs report on 03 Dec, which showed the US private sector cut 32,000 jobs, while companies with fewer than 50 employees cut 120,000 jobs. This report may well be the final nail in the wall for the Fed’s decision next week, with the CME FedWatch tool assigning an 89% probability to a 25 bps rate cut. The only real glimmer of transparency in this market has been OPEC+’s decision to create a mechanism for assessing member states’ maximum production capabilities through an independent auditor, a move the Saudi energy minister says will evaluate individual members’ maximum sustainable production capacity (MSC) to help stabilise markets and reward those with the willingness and the cash to invest. The MSC framework may well nudge fresh investment into oil and looks like another attempt by OPEC+ to capture market share while keeping its members (mostly) happy.
In crude, the North Sea physical has seen some softness amid a less aggressive buy-side. In the paper market, the flow has been highly mixed, although we now see a short bias in Dec rolls, with Jan rolls noting more support, hinting at potential Dated Brent support as risk appetite re-enters the market into the new year. In Dubai, trading volumes stayed very thin, with M1 Brent/Dubai sitting in a tight range between -$0.90/bbl and -$0.55/bbl.
In fuel oil, HSFO has weakened this week amid large MOC selling, which has pressured the front Sing 380 crack. Stop-outs in 3.5% barges this week have also been observed, further pressuring this contract. In VLSFO, Sing 0.5 has driven the complex, as the front crack saw pressure despite front spreads being supported. While spreads in the Jan-Jun region remained resilient, Jun/Dec saw a decline due to market makers selling.
In distillates, ICE gasoil futures and cracks have softened, especially in front spreads, as repeated stock builds and a risk-off tone weigh on prices and volumes. In Asia, the gasoil East/West has strengthened despite Singapore 10ppm spreads weakening on MOC selling. Nevertheless, combo buying in Cal’26 has supported the E/W and regrade, with the latter also strong on firm kerosene sentiment in Singapore. Balmo NWE jet diffs have climbed amid very near-term tightness in Europe, with deferred jet diffs fairly quiet.
Gasoline was strong initially. However, on 04 Dec, we are starting to see it come off a bit more. In Europe, physical E5 barges have been a bit higher, so the Bal-Dec/Jan’26 spread recovered well this week. We aren’t really seeing this reflected in the paper flows. There has been buying in the Q2’26 arb. There was sizeable buying of 92/MOPJ. E/W is swinging with the flow in each leg.
It was another quiet week in naphtha. European cracks were scaleback offered but have barely moved in the week. The front crack has ranged between -$4.80 and -$4.50/bbl. There has been some support from NWE gasnaph selling due to prices reaching seasonal highs. There have been some propane players buying backend MOPJ cracks, with some buying seen in the front.
In NGLs, C3 LST has seen a stronger week, on a crude basis. Good buy-side momentum from last week carried into this week, with 01 Dec seeing a well-bid US complex. EIA stats from 03 Dec, which showed a larger-than-expected draw in US propane stocks, further supported LST. International propane was also stronger this week, though it saw a weaker rally when compared to LST; FEI physical was well bid by trade houses this week. C3 CP has remained sticky while FEI/CP has seen some strength. We have also seen some front pronap buying this week. In butane, C4 ENT/C3 LST has been relatively quiet coming back from the Thanksgiving holiday.
European Window: Brent Rises to $63.50/bbl
The Feb’26 Brent futures contract rose this afternoon, from $62.57/bbl at 14:40 GMT to $63.50/bbl at 16:50 GMT. In the news, the Trump administration has approved transactions with Lukoil gas stations outside Russia, issuing a narrow waiver to the sanctions imposed by the US in October. According to a US Treasury Department post, these transactions are authorised until 26 April 2026. Elsewhere, Reuters reported that oil exports from Russia’s Novorossiysk and the CPC terminal were roughly 1mt behind schedule in November, due to storms and recent drone attacks that disrupted loading operations. Scheduled loadings of Urals, Siberian Light, and KEBCO crude were at 3.2mt, though actual exports reached just 2.5mt. Reuters also reported that CPC Blend oil shipments were also delayed, as two Suezmax cargoes totalling around 300kt were rolled over into December. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s oil and gas condensate production decreased by 6% during the first two days of December, after a Ukrainian drone attack on the CPC. According to Reuters sources, Kazakhstan’s oil and gas condensate production fell in the first two days of December to 1.9mb/d, down from the average daily output in November. In other news, weekly US jobless claims have fallen 27k to 191k; this is the lowest level since September 2022. Finally, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.40/bbl and $0.97/bbl, respectively.
The Officials: OSPs Pronto
OSPs came early! The Kingdom decided to surprise us on another quiet day and announce their OSPs for January. The Saudis didn’t disappoint and delivered what the change in Dubai structure implied – a 40c cut for Arab Light to Asian destinations, bringing the OSP down to just 60c over the Oman and Dubai average. This is the lowest since 2020 folks! Cuts were seen across all grades: Arab Extra Light was trimmed by 20c to $1.10, while Arab Medium and Arab Heavy were cut by 60c to -55c and -$1.90, respectively.
The Officials: Zoom in to spot the action
Rhetoric is ramping. Mr Medvedev isn’t a fan of the idea Europe could use frozen Russian assets, calling it a “casus belli” and threatening they could be returned as reparations “by Russia’s fallen foes”. As a Russian source commented, “Now we have clarification what qualifies as war for Russia”.
Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Sees Resistance Above $63/bbl
The Feb’26 Brent futures contract remains highly rangebound. Price action continues to encounter resistance above the $63/bbl threshold, although support is seen at $62.75/bbl. At the time of writing at 10:00 GMT, the contract stands at $62.85/bbl…
CFTC Predictor: Funds Bearish in Crude and Products
In the week ending 02 Dec, M1 Brent futures saw almost no net change. The contract closed at $62.50/bbl on 25 Nov, reached $63.75/bbl on 01 Dec, and fell to close at $62.45/bbl on 02 Dec as volatility stagnated, and prices remained constrained by the downward channel. Geopolitical tensions have not eased, with US President Trump intensifying his narrative against Venezuela, and President Maduro accusing the US of pushing for regime change to seize oil reserves. A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has also eluded us this week. We forecast money managers to close almost 11mb of their length and add over 8.2mb shorts. This bearish pattern was also seen in the forecasts for RBOB and Gasoil.
Copper Makes New All-Time High, Job Losses, ISM Services PMI Rises, Australian OIS
Copper makes another new all-time high as the dollar trends lower (unable to break the magic 100 level Chart 1, Bloomberg) on news ultra dove, Trump puppet Hassett is the likely new Fed chair and ADP payrolls come in significantly weaker than expected. In Japan 10-year JGB’s rise another 4bp, highest since 2008.
The ADP report for November shows the largest monthly job losses (32,000) since early 2023, undershooting the consensus forecast gain of +10,000 jobs. Notable distribution: Small firms are the ones shedding workers, according to the latest ADP. Over the last three months, small businesses have cut 178,000 off their payroll ranks. By contrast, large firms have added 143,000. (Chart 2, @RenMacLLC)
The ISM Services PMI rose 0.2 points to 52.6, beating expectations by 0.5 points and marking the ninth consecutive month of sector expansion in 2025. The index now sits 0.9 points above its 12-month average of 51.7, indicating steady, modest growth. Business Activity (54.5%) and New Orders (52.9%) remained firmly in expansion territory, while Employment (48.9%) continued to contract for a sixth straight month. The Prices Index eased to 65.4%, down 4.6 points from October, signalling ongoing but moderating inflationary pressure.
TRUMP: “I guess a potential Fed Chair is here too…I don’t know, are we allowed to say that? Thank you, Kevin.” Kevin Hassett has consistently called for lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth and criticized the Federal Reserve for being too slow to ease monetary policy.
The S&P 500’s 5-day historical range is now 1.2%, the lowest level of the year. Markets are quiet after Thanksgiving but plenty of event risk ahead with Fed, BOE and BOJ rate meetings all pricing moves (cut, cut, hike) plus a resumption of key US payroll data, and the expected Santa Claus rally. All in low volume.
$IBM CEO says that at today’s costs it takes about $80B to build & fill a 1 GW AI data centre, so the ~100 GW of announced capacity implies roughly $8T of capex & “no way you’re going to get a return on that,” since you’d need “about $800B of profit just to pay for the interest” (Charles-Henry Monchau)
Gold is a mere 2.8% of investors AUM (Chart 3, The Market Ear, Charles-Henry Manchau)
Commodities are breaking out slowly (Chart 4, Bloomberg)
The Australian OIS is pricing one full HIKE over the next 12 months. AUDUSD up 2.5% over the last 2 weeks.
Here’s the cumulative real GDP growth for Europe’s four biggest economies since Q1 2020: 9%, 7.5%, 6.2%, 2.1%…. trending!
Another shocking stat of the day: Interest costs on US debt are now equal to 24% of every $1 in government tax revenue. The interest expense as % of collected taxes has nearly DOUBLED over the last 4 years.
Data today – EZ retail sales, US weekly jobless claims
LPG Report: Bulls Rebound
The international propane market has held up w/w, although price action was shakier at the beginning of December. The Jan’26 Mont Belvieu TET propane swap contract (C3 LST) initially weakened to a low of 63.825c/gal on 25 Nov
European Window: Brent Falls to $62.68/bbl
The Feb’26 Brent futures contract initially rose from $62.77/bbl at 14:10 GMT to $63.29/bbl at 16:00 GMT, before falling to $62.68/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters has reported that remote-controlled Ukrainian explosives have struck the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia’s central Tambov region. This is the fifth Ukrainian attack on the pipeline this year, which supplies Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia; oil supplies are reportedly running through the Druzhba as usual. Meanwhile, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has said that the country will challenge a European Union decision to phase out Russian energy sources at the EU’s Court of Justice. During a briefing broadcast, Szijjarto reinforced that implementing the order will be “impossible” for Hungary. According to Reuters, Slovakia is also considering legal options in response to the EU decision. Elsewhere, Platts has said that the Dated Brent global physical crude oil benchmark does not need significant methodology changes. The price reporting agency announced a methodology proposal to enable traders to load WTI Midland crude from various US terminals, facilitating larger shipments to Europe. It is seeking feedback by 16 January, with changes potentially taking effect next May. In other news, private Chinese refiner Hengli Petrochemical has stated that China’s oil demand is likely to remain weak for the coming months, at least until mid-2026. Recent surges in the registration of electric and LNG-fuelled vehicles have dampened Chinese demand for road transportation fuels, such as gasoline and diesel. Finally, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.40/bbl and $0.77/bbl, respectively.
The Officials: Well that was unexpected…
The market for hot Russian assets is going hard core today. According to various reports, the owner of pornhub is getting the hots (the word again 🤣) for Lukoil assets and is unexpectedly coming from behind. We thought the assets would be stripped by a more true-blue American company. But hey, you never know, as money can lure a seller even in the cold of the winter. No need to parade, the suitor will come for you!
The Officials: Diplomatic wheelspin
Deadlock. Status quo. Mexican standoff. Whatever you want to call it, the Russia-Ukraine negotiations are stuck in some super sticky mud. Rasputitsa, as the Russians call it. 🤣 Ukraine refuses to yield, supported by willing European bankrollers, are there any? Or any with money? 🤡 And Russia won’t leave without what it entered Ukraine for. Some waffly nonsense from the Kremlin about being prepared to meet the US as often as necessary to find an agreement didn’t reassure anyone that peace is anywhere near within reach.
Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Rises to $63.17/bbl
The Feb’26 Brent futures contract has risen this morning, from $62.42/bbl at 06:00 GMT to $63.17/bbl at 10:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, peace talks between the US and Russia failed to deliver a breakthrough, as Russian President Vladimir Putin intensified threats towards Europe ahead of the negotiations. Putin claimed that Russia was “ready” for war, according to CNBC. Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters that the 5-hour late-night meeting had centred on a US-backed peace plan, though no compromise was reached. Elsewhere, the European Union has reached an agreement to phase out Russian gas by 2027; according to Reuters, the deal includes a gradual reduction in LNG and pipeline gas imports, which will result in a full ban. In China, Bloomberg has reported that China’s polyethene production could rise by 18% this year; this increase is expected to substantially surpass the anticipated demand growth of 10% . The Bloomberg report further outlined growing concerns over a supply glut in the coming months. Elsewhere, the American Petroleum Institute (API) has estimated that US crude oil inventories declined by 2.5mb for the week ending 26 November. US crude inventories, thus far, are showing a net gain of roughly 5mb for the year. In Pakistan, local media have reported that the country has signed five agreements for oil and gas exploration with both private and state-owned companies. These deals will develop three offshore and two onshore blocks. Finally, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at 40.45/bbl and $0.91/bbl, respectively.
Copper & Silver Trend Higher, US Yield Curve Steepens, Bitcoin Falls, US Foreclosures Up 20%
Copper & Silver continue their trend higher, making new all-time closing highs, While UK 2-year yields break support and close in on new cycle lows based on concerns around the economy, with the OIS pricing 65bp cuts over the next 12 months.
While silver surged, gold pulled back on news of Russian central bank selling, its reserves falling 57%, a clear sign of financial stress within the economy due to the war. Meanwhile …. PUTIN: IF EUROPE WANTS TO FIGHT WAR, WE ARE READY NOW
The US yield curve is starting to steepen, 2’s/10’s now at 57bp, no doubt being led by the huge move in Japanese long end yields, with the Japanese 30-year grinding up another 3bp today.
Bitcoin fell 4.5% on Monday and has since rallied 7.8%. Anyone who trades this is braver than me, I don’t see any clear fundamentals and price action is clearly manipulated by the whales. Good luck!
Manufacturing PMI’s (Purchasing Managers Index) continue to show contraction, with the U.S. falling the most in 4 months to 48.2 (last 48.7) with employment a woeful 44 and new orders 47.4. (Chart 1, Bloomberg)
U.S. foreclosures have risen 20% as more homeowners fall behind on their mortgage payments, according to ATTOM.
TRUMP: WE ARE GOING TO GIVE REFUNDS OUT OF THE TARIFFS. I BELIEVE IN THE NEAR FUTURE YOU WON’T HAVE INCOME TAX TO PAY. (Chart 2, Eliant Capital)
Germany, what went wrong? The Left and the Green party. Industrial production collapses. (Chart, TheBoomBustReport)
Switzerland November CPI 0.0% vs +0.1% y/y expected
Data today – Global services PMIs, US ADP employment
The Officials: Hunting for headlines
Putin doesn’t like the Ukrainian attacks on Russian ships and threatened to retaliate with his own strikes on Ukrainian ships and facilities – and even a naval blockade! He also beat his chest and bristled at Europe, or any country supporting the sea drones, for its unacceptable demands, claiming Russia is ready for war at any time. Nobody wins!!
European Window: Brent Recovers to $62.83/bbl
The Feb’26 Brent futures contract failed to maintain strength above $63/bbl this afternoon, declining from $63.06/bbl at 13:00 GMT to $62.21/bbl at 14:55 GMT. Prices then recovered to $62.83/bbl at 16:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Besiktas Shipping, a Turkish owner of an oil tanker that was damaged near Senegal’s coast last week after four external explosions, announced that it is suspending all shipping operations related to Russian interests. Citing safety concerns, the company said it would halt operations with Russia immediately. Elsewhere, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) aims to complete all repairs on its SPM-3 at its Black Sea terminal ahead of schedule, restoring full CPC Blend oil export capacity after drone attacks last week. According to Reuters, the mooring is expected to return within the next week, despite an initial maintenance period of two months. Its SPM-2 mooring remains offline after Ukrainian attacks over the weekend. In other news, the US has denied Serbian refinery NIS a sanctions waiver, ultimately forcing the refinery to shut down. As a temporary measure to support the refinery, Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic stated that the government, risking secondary sanctions, would permit payments and transactions for the Russian-owned oil company, which is under US sanctions, until the end of the week. This step is intended to enable NIS to pay its workers and handle other transactions following the sanctions imposed by the US Treasury Department in October. Meanwhile, Romania’s coalition government has approved a decree allowing it to seize control of Lukoil’s local assets. The decree allows the government to appoint special administrators to companies if sanctions disrupt economic sectors, cause price increases, or jeopardise energy security. This appointment requires prior approval from Romania’s top defence council. In Russia, Putin has claimed that if Ukrainian attacks continue, Russia may strike Ukrainian tankers. Finally, the front-month (Feb/Mar’26) and 6-month (Feb/Aug’26) spreads are at $0.39/bbl and $0.72/bbl, respectively.
Dated Brent Report: Achieving Homeostasis
The North Sea physical differential climbed around $0.70/bbl this week, a significant shift from the negative diffs at the start of November. However, last week’s buy-side bias **has now turned shakier.** We saw a trade house sell-side of Dec weekly rolls and Dec/Jan’26 DFL last week. This flow dissipated as the physical inched higher, with 28 Nov instead seeing a trade house aggressively bidding 1H Dec into 2H Dec rolls.
It appears that the prevailing regime has shifted again this week. We saw a trade house flipping to a sell-side axe in Dec’25 weekly structure on 01 Dec, leading to a sell-off in prices exacerbated by thin liquidity. The Bal-Dec’25 DFL fell from a high of $0.87/bbl on 28 Nov to $0.69/bbl on 01 Dec, where it met support and climbed to $0.75/bbl. The 01-05 Dec three-week roll sold down to $0.70/bbl, with the Bal-Dec/Jan’26 DFL roll standing at $0.22/bbl on 01 Dec. We saw similar sell-side interest on 02 Dec, with selling in the 15-19 Dec CFD and 15-19 Dec vs Cal Jan roll, with only some buying in Bal-week CFD and the 15-19 two-week roll supporting prices.
Returning to the physical differential, although we continue to see the usual suspects buying the physical, prompt offers have been increasingly aggressive, casting a doubt on the robustness of this strength. We see relative support from the 8-12 Dec CFD, indicating that we may see some near-term support; however, it will be vital to monitor how sentiment shifts in the coming week.
Desk Heads – Top of Mind – Episode 26
In this podcast, our Onyx Commodities Head of Trading Desks discuss the latest trends and developments in the oil, gas, power and carbon markets in which Onyx Commodities trades. This episode was recorded on Tuesday, 2 December 2025, at 11:00 a.m. London time. Please listen to the end of this podcast for important disclaimers.
This communication is for informational purposes only and based on the information available at the time the podcast was recorded. This is not an offer to buy or sell, nor a solicitation, and no recommendations are implied. It does not consider your financial circumstances or objectives and may not be suitable for you. Copyright 2025, Onyx Capital Group – all rights reserved.
Dubai Market Report: New Month, Same Range…
We have seen trading volumes remain extremely low in December. This week, the M1 Brent/Dubai remained in its tight range between -$0.90/bbl and -$0.55/bbl, as it has been for most of November, as it moved sandwiched between the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. The bodies on the candles are short and fail to reveal a pattern, but there has been a trend of higher lows d/d this week. On the other hand, the shadows on the candles shifted from being longer underneath the candles to above them. This shows that although there is better buying at the lower end of the range, there is better selling at the upper end. The market is still lacking any concrete directional consensus, with a limited risk appetite clear in the price action. As we approach the end of the year, the current de-risking is reflective of a market averse to further market uncertainty. The forward curve has started to flatten out, with Brent/Dubai contracts sitting between -$0.65 and -$0.35/bbl through most of the 2026 curve. There seems to be little to indicate a breakout without some fundamental changes, or a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, although the continued failure of these talks has built in some headline scepticism around the subject. Nevertheless, the current environment suggests a trend toward de-risking.
The Officials: Liquidity Report 1.42
In the week ending 28 November 2025, exchange traded futures volumes were significantly lower w/w across instruments in the first three tenors – partly impacted by the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. Brent volumes saw the largest drop in the January tenor – down 58.75% – as traders rolled their positions ahead of expiry.
Technical Analysis Report: Gasoil cracks test critical support
The M1 ICE LS gasoil swap crack has been under pressure, having closed at $28.35/bbl on 25 Nov, to remain flat at $26.00/bbl from 01-02 Dec. The contract is yet to break the 100-day moving average (orange line) meaningfully, with this level acting as support last week.
Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Eases to $63/bbl
The Feb’26 Brent futures contract eased this morning, from $63.32/bbl at 17:40 GMT to $63.00/bbl at 10:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Turkey’s Maritime Affairs Directorate reported that the MIDVOLGA-2 vessel, a Russian-flagged tanker loaded with sunflower oil, was attacked by drones off the Turkish coast. According to maritime authority, the vessel was destined for Georgia, though the Tribeca shipping agency has claimed that it was bound for Mersin. At the moment, both authorities state that the vessel is en route to Turkey’s Sinop port; it is still unclear who attacked the ship. Elsewhere, Exxon Mobil has expressed interest in purchasing Russian oil major Lukoil’s stake in the Iraqi West Qurna 2 oilfield (470kb/d), according to Reuters. Lukoil’s 75% operational stake in the oilfield is its largest foreign asset, with potential buyers cleared by the US Treasury to engage with the Russian firm until December 13. Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has told Indian media that a decline in India’s oil imports from Russia may be short-lived, following Moscow’s plans to boost supplies to New Delhi. In Nigeria, local media have reported that the country tendered 50 oil and gas blocks in an effort to add 400kb/d to its production capacity. Nigeria is currently eyeing $10 billion in investments and aims to deliver 10bn barrels over the next decade. Finally, the front-month (Feb/Mar’26) and 6-month (Feb/Aug’26) spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $0.75/bbl, respectively.
The Officials: Boredom breeds bickering
Dear reader, the market is so so boring. Brent trading for a few hours was comatose trading around $63.18 plus or minus a few cents. Pathetic really. ‘Most people closed their trading books for the year, they lost enough,’ said a trader. ‘It is unprecedented how the market does not react to any news, and this is because they got burnt in the past as whatever it is said is flipped around within a few hours.’
Sell-off in Treasuries, JGB 10-yr Auction, US Manufacturing, Precious Metals Pull Back
Post-Thanksgiving trading saw selloff in Treasuries, with long end up most. 10-year yield rose to 4.1% this morning, up from 3.99% at the close before the holiday. Japanese bonds are also continuing to sell off, as 10-year yield hit its highest since 2008.
Today’s JGB 10-year auction brought some relief to the market after jitters regarding Japan mounting debt concerns. The auction saw a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.59, higher than the previous offering in November, as elevated yields lured buyers despite rising expectations for a near-term BOJ rate hike. The yield on the 10-year JGB is now trading to its highest in 17 years! USD/JPY and interest rate differentials remain stubbornly deanchored (Figure 1).
In the UK, OBR chair Richard Hughes quit after the “inadvertent” leak of November 26 Budget forecasts. London struck a deal with Washington to keep US pharma tariffs at 0% for three years, though the UK will pay more for medicines via the NHS. Shop-price inflation cooled to 0.6% YoY in November (from 1%) thanks to early Black Friday discounting. Starmer says the UK will be more pro-business toward China but won’t trade security for market access.
Europe remains Ukraine-focused: the EU says Belgium’s concerns over the €140bn Ukraine loan can be managed, while Zelensky reiterated that sovereignty and security guarantees are non-negotiable and territorial concessions off the table. Macron says a peace deal is still “far off”. The EU may also delay its review of the 2035 combustion-engine ban.
US manufacturing is stuck in contraction, with ISM warning trade uncertainty “kills us”, while Washington approved up to $150mn subsidy for chip start-up xLight. Canada is set to join the EU’s €150bn defence procurement fund.
China’s Vanke rattled markets again with fresh debt-delay details, while the PBOC drained CNY145.8bn net via OMO and fixed the yuan at 7.0794. China’s onshore yuan reaches its strongest close since 11 October.
Precious metals pull back from their highs, with silver down 1.5% this morning, now below $58/oz. Gold down less, trading just above $4.2k/oz. Crypto keeps crashing, as Bitcoin dropped to under $84k yesterday (figure 2) and Ethereum is now below $3k. As a whole, the crypto market saw nearly $1bn in leveraged longs liquidated on Monday, Korea CPI stayed at 2.4% YoY, and Japanese markets priced an 80% chance of a December BoJ hike.
Data today: Euro inflation
Alpha Report: November Review
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Flux Insights. This week, we look at trades in NGL and Crude Our weekly Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Flux Commitment of Traders (COT) and Financials data.
Gasoline Report: The bulls take over
The gasoline complex quickly rebounded from the brief bout of weakness seen in the second half of November….
Naphtha Report: Taking a Nap(htha)
The naphtha swaps market has been relatively sideways when looking at the cracks, but the strength in Asia has continued to outpace its European counterpart. We are starting to see some better selling at these very strong levels. South Korea is launching its biggest petrochemicals overhaul in decades as Lotte Chemical and HD Hyundai Chemical merge their naphtha cracking operations at the Daesan Industrial Complex to counter heavy losses from a China-driven market glut. In Singapore, PCS plans to cut throughput by about 10%, ExxonMobil may reduce to around 60%, and Aster Chemicals and Energy is shutting its cracker. Similar rate reductions are happening in Northeast Asia, further lowering naphtha demand. Moreover, there may be lower naphtha demand from petchem players due to weak aromatic margins. This, along with the strong propane demand in the East, explains our trade idea this week.
There has been greater selling pressure in the NWE and MOPJ cracks from trade houses and refiners mostly, as there has been a significant increase in both regions’ open interest.
The Jan’26 NWE gasnaph (EBOB – NWE Naphtha) saw good strength this week, rising from $111.46/mt on 24 Nov to $121.86/mt on 01 Dec (time of writing). Open interest remained relatively flat, with levels well below the 5-year high. Net positioning against Onyx has fallen this week, driven by trade houses and refiners trimming shorts. While bullish momentum has been waning in this contract, the M1 gasnaph continues to search for firm directional conviction.
The M1 C3 FEI/MOPJ rose from -$57.44/mt on 24 Nov to -$40.24 on 01 Dec (time of writing). Open interest and net positioning against Onyx both saw a net increase this week, as trade houses and majors added to longs. From a technical perspective, momentum in this contract has begun to show signs of a correction, with a bearish crossover seen in the short-term stochastic oscillator.
Oil Monthly Report: All About U-kraine
Uncertainty remained the only constant in the oil market this past month. Participants quickly shifted from wearing their “oil glut” hats to “Ukrainian drone attack hats” before ultimately tossing both aside to fret instead about the US government shutdown, the longest on record, which conveniently left a gaping hole in the flow of key data releases at a time when the Fed is leaning ever more heavily on labour indicators to guide its next move. Still, it seems as though all roads in this market have led us back to Ukraine, with a leaked draft of a US-brokered ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine adding another twist. Ukraine has reportedly agreed to a revised version, while the Kremlin has yet to sign the agreement. Just when the market thought it had seen it all, a glitch at the CME on the final trading day of the month provided the cherry on top of an already chaotic period.
European Window: Brent Eases to $62.97/bbl
The Feb’26 Brent futures contract broke the $63/bbl handle this afternoon, before easing to $62.97/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) stated that it has resumed oil shipments from Sing-Point Mooring 1 at its Novorossiysk terminal, following a Ukrainian drone attack over the weekend. The CPC accounts for approximately 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports and handles more than 1% of the world’s oil. Elsewhere, former Indian foreign minister Kanwal Sibal has said that the country could reduce its Russian crude imports by 50% but noted that the nations would still seek to circumvent US sanctions to maintain oil flows. In geopolitics, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is en route to Moscow and is set to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin this week; talks will centre on a 19-point, US-backed peace framework. Ukraine has tentatively supported the peace framework, but no official agreement has been made. Meanwhile, BP’s US-based Olympic Pipeline system has resumed full operations over the weekend, with nearly 2,300 gallons of refined products recovered. However, the total amount of leaked products continued to be assessed. In Brazil, Petrobras, the state-owned oil company, announced it will raise the average jet fuel price for distributors by 3.8%, starting December 1. Finally, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.39/bbl and $0.77/bbl, respectively.
The Officials: Goodbye to Torbjorn Tornqvist as he exits Gunvor
And we want to wish a warm farewell to Torbjorn Tornqvist, a man and a leader we knew fairly well. He stuck his head above the safety of the parapet one too many times and eventually something gets you. Maybe in the long past we battled hard but in that process, one learns mutual respect. So…godspeed!