Our latest energy derivatives stories across the World.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
When there was no commitment of traders data, technical analysts looked for a workaround to infer overall position changes in the market. The analysis tests joint changes in a futures contract’s price and open interest to determine whether long or short positions were being added or whether long or short positions were covered. These outcomes are illustrated in Table 1 below.
To build our series, we test the conditions in Table 1 below and then qualify the change as one of the four outcomes. We then count the number of occurrences of each outcome in a lookback period to give the percentage of each outcome. The four outcomes over the lookback period always add up to 100%. The look-back period rolls over daily. Table 2 shows the price implications of the four outcomes. Tables 3 and 4 illustrate Open Interest, Volume and Price relations and Open Interest, respectively.
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Jun’25 Far East propane Index (C3 FEI)
In this edition, we take a look at the Q3’25 Gasoline EBOB Crack.
The report covers oil inventory data in the OECD held by industry in million barrels and days of forward demand, as provided by the International Energy Agency
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Q3’25 Gasoline EBOB Crack.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Update to Onyx Global Oil Balance: this update’s key revision revolves around supply, with lower non-OPEC supply growth in 2025 and an upward readjustment in Iraqi crude production following methodological changes by Petro-Logistics SA. Following a comprehensive review of Iraq’s crude balance, Petro-Logistics SA has reclassified “other” refinery feedstocks as crude oil, accounting for most of the revision in the country’s output.
This report contains Onyx Advisory’s Global Oil Liquids Balance, with projections of world oil supply (including OPEC crude oil production) and world oil demand to derive implied global oil stock changes by quarter.
The report is split into two parts: a detailed global balance on page 3 and a summary balance on page 4, which shows individual OPEC country crude production assumptions over the forecast period. The OPEC crude production level is contrasted with the ‘Call on OPEC’ crude to obtain the implied global stock change.
Historical data are sourced from the IEA, while Petro-logistics SA data are used for OPEC crude production.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Jun’25 Fuel Oil 380 East/West.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks in a timelier fashion relative to the official COT data. Over the past two weeks, net positions bottomed on 16 April at -145k lots, which was the lowest level since September 2024. Now, net positions are steadily increasing, rising to -93k lots by 28 April. RBOB is still the strongest underlying, at -3k lots, while Brent is the weakest, at -27k lots. Brent is quickly converging with WTI futures which is sitting at -26k lots.
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this seventh edition, we take a look at the May’25 Sing 92 Crack swap.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Consumption is rising steadily in the northern hemisphere due to summer seasonal demand and burn crude and fuel consumption for power generation in the Middle East. But prices get beaten down on a regular basis by either Trump saying or doing something and by OPEC also talking the market down. Sources wondered why markets weren’t at fifty dollars a barrel already. Bloodied and bruised by the reports OPEC would unleash yet another flood of supply in July, Brent futures tumbled to below $64 and struggled to climb back above that level throughout the day. The front spread also struggled to shrug off the 50c level, despite brief forays up to 56c and down to 46c – eventually coming to the European close at exactly 50c.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally all afternoon to $65.95/bbl at 17:35 BST before falling off to $64.42/bbl at 18:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Indonesia is questioning a number Singapore-based trading firms as part of a $12B corruption probe into oil imports by state energy firm Pertamina between 2018 and 2023. Several Pertamina executives have been arrested, and authorities may question the firms in Singapore after failed summonses. Elliott Investment Management, now holding 5% of BP, is pressing for a quick replacement for outgoing Chair Helge Lund to drive a strategic revamp. The activist fund favours candidates with fossil fuel or mining backgrounds to restore investor confidence. BP may also need a new CEO, with former BP exec and current Rolls-Royce CEO Tufan Erginbilgic seen as a strong option. In other news, Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said oil exploration near the mouth of the Amazon River should proceed, but warned it must not delay the country’s shift to clean energy. The region is seen as Brazil’s most promising for new oil discoveries, yet drilling is controversial due to its location in the Amazon basin .Haddad emphasized the need to reduce reliance on oil through investments in alternative energy, reaffirming Brazil’s leadership in the global energy transition. According to Reuters, a potential US-Iran nuclear deal could lift sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports, flooding global markets and threatening China’s independent “teapot” refineries. These small refineries rely heavily on discounted and sanctioned Iranian crude. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.72/bbl and $2.02/bbl respectively.
It’s been a remarkably flat week in Brent. Jul’25 is around $64.00/bbl at the time of writing on 22 May, almost exactly where it was this time last week. But what has changed? It feels like a lot has changed. OPEC+ is considering a major output hike of 411kb/d for July (three times the amount initially planned), matching increases in May and June. Brent gapped up around 60c on Tuesday as CNN reported Israel is getting ready to possibly strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, according to several American officials. This comes at a tense moment, as the Trump administration is still trying to negotiate a diplomatic agreement with Tehran. This report of Israel’s strike on Iran was either not believed or not cared about, likely the former, as nuclear strikes would probably perforate even the most headline-fatigued trader among us. If Brent is the calm and flat body of the swan, the product cracks are the legs frantically kicking underneath it. Margins sold off this week around $1.50/bbl initially but have recovered, with the Euro margin at $8.45/bbl at the time of writing.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
This fortnight, the naphtha market saw greater weakness. NWE naphtha cracks and spreads saw notable weakness through May. The Jun’25 crack fell from -$2.65/bbl on 8 May to -$3.90/bbl by 22 May, erasing earlier gains and dropping below 2018 and 2021 seasonal levels, though still above 2023. Open interest peaked at 21.71mb on 16 May before declining to 20.70mb. Trade houses were active net sellers, offloading 1.65mb on 21 May, while refiners remained net buyers for the month, despite daily selling. Similarly, the Jun/Jul’25 NWE naphtha spread declined sharply, from $10/mt on 5 May to $6.25/mt by 22 May. Trade houses sold over 2mb of the spread between 7–15 May, later trimming positions. Majors also de-risked significantly, cutting net length from +836kb on 7 May to 685kb by 15 May, before slightly adding to reach 818kb on 21 May. Refiners sold 85kb of the spread against Onyx. Technical indicators suggest growing bearish momentum, with the -DMI line overtaking +DMI and ADX turning upward, indicating increasing trend strength…
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract fell from $65.03/bbl to $63.69/bbl at 08:14 BST. Prices slightly recovered to $63.87/bbl at 11:25 BST (time of writing). In the news, OPEC+ is discussing a potential oil production increase of 411kb/d for July, Bloomberg reported, citing delegates. No final decision has been made ahead of the June 1 meeting. Reuters previously reported that the group could restore up to 2.2mb/d by November, possibly starting with a larger hike in July. In other news, Dangote Petroleum Refinery announced a partnership with global distributor Vinmar Group to export its polypropylene products. The $2B petrochemical plant in Lagos, which began local production in March, has a capacity of 830k mt. Nigeria currently imports 90% of its 250k mt/year polypropylene needs. The facility aims to meet local demand and position Nigeria as a net exporter. British gas producer Energean narrowed its 2025 output forecast and is actively pursuing M&A opportunities after scrapping a planned asset sale to Carlyle. Energean now expects production of 155kb/d–165kb/d, down from previous guidance of 160,000kb/d–175,000kb/d. CEO Mathios Rigas said the company is evaluating both acquisitions and organic growth across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, with a focus on capital discipline. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug spread is at $0.49/bbl and the 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spread is at $1.16/bbl.
Just as Brent was gearing up for a relaxed day, gently oscillating through the Asian session on a gradual uptrend, OPEC barged in and kicked the legs out from under it! Reports OPEC will pursue its more aggressive unwind of production cuts tanked Brent from the $65 handle it had worked so hard to reach and it fell to under $64 within an hour. The prompt spread showed relative resilience, however, dropping from 54c to 47c. By the close, flat price had regathered to $64.37/bbl, though the subsequent decline towards $63.50 suggests the battle isn’t over yet!
The Jun’25 Mont Belvieu TET propane (Energy Transfer) contract, C3 LST, initially climbed this fortnight amid support in LST spreads and buy-side interest in the C3 LST/FEI arb. However, price action has since been stagnant, declining from 79.50c/gal on 14 May to 76.625c/gal at the time of writing on 21 May. This past week, trade houses sold around 55kb of the contract against Onyx, while majors, banks, and end users bought 120kb of the contract.
The window proceedings opened as you would expect this week: Exxon returned to offer Forties and Midland, while Glencore came back to bid Midland and BP made another appearance bidding Johan Sverdrup. BP wasn’t too fussy about freight either, bidding for both CIF and FOB cargoes. Totsa’s bids for Sverdrup also went unanswered. In fact, the only trade today came as Glencore lifted Exxon’s 2-6 June Forties offer at Dated +$0.65. Remember, this one was a CIF, so the physical differential slipped from yesterday’s strength back down to near flat at just 3c.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract initially climbed to $66.30/bbl at 13:16 BST but retreated throughout the afternoon to $64.97/bbl at17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, the EIA reported that US crude and fuel inventories unexpectedly rose last week. Crude stocks increased by 1.3mb to 443.2 million, contrary to forecast. Crude imports hit a six-week high at 2.58mb/d, while refinery runs and utilization slightly increased. Gasoline stocks grew by 816kb, despite expectations for a decline, and gasoline demand fell to 8.6 mb/d. Distillate stocks also rose by 580kb, just missing expectations. In other news, Continental Resources estimates Turkey’s Diyarbakır Basin holds 6.1 billion barrels of shale oil, equal to 17 years of current imports. A joint venture with Turkey’s TPAO and TransAtlantic Petroleum aims to develop the region, which may also hold up to 20 TCF of gas. South Africa plans to wait for global oil prices to reach around $100/bbl before selling more of its strategic crude reserves, said Godfrey Moagi, CEO of the state-owned South African National Petroleum Company. South Africa aims to generate about 4B rand ($223 million) from reserve sales by March 2026 but will hold off unless prices rise. The nation’s strategic reserves stand at roughly 7.7 mb, with some sales already made to local firms Sasol and TotalEnergies’ local unit. Finally the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.53/bbl and $1.46/bbl respectively.
Back above $66! But not for long. The market is fatigued. Headlines just don’t do it for the market anymore. Increasingly noisy suggestions Israel is gearing up to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities reminds us of the sabre-rattling last October, but this time the market is much less bothered – at least until something real happens! Brent flat price jumped $1 at the Asian open but the prompt futures simply ignored the development and continued business as usual. By the close, Brent had slid back to $66.20/bbl Trump’s decision to skip over Israel on his Middle East trip is rather telling. As we well know, he wants low oil prices and Israel can only send them skyward – namely by attacking Iran! Hey, no need for a nuclear deal if Iran’s nuclear facilities have gone up in smoke! But Trump’s even trying to one-up his Israeli allies by going full Reagan and attempting to reignite the ‘Star Wars’ project that he’s renamed to the ‘Golden Dome’ of air defences around the US.
Jul’25 Brent futures jumped by $0.60/bbl last night following a CNN report that said Israel is considering a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. These gains have been lost over the morning as the contract softened to $65.95/bbl at 11:40 BST (time of writing). In the news, Fuel dealers in Nigeria report ongoing gasoline shortages, despite government claims that the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries were ready six months ago. The facilities, operated by state-owned NNPC, remain largely non-operational, forcing continued reliance on imports and Dangote Refinery. Nigeria has spent over $25B in the last decade trying to revive its aging refineries. The Port Harcourt refinery, though declared partially functional in December 2024, had stopped producing gasoline by March 2025. In other news, India is set to import about 1.8mb/d of Russian crude in May, its highest in 10 months, driven by strong demand for light grades like ESPO, according to Kpler data. Refiners boosted purchases ahead of new EU/UK sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet. Ithaca Energy has raised its 2025 production forecast to 109–119 kb/d, up from 105–115 kb/d, after acquiring an additional 46.25% stake in the UK’s largest gas field, Cygnus, from Centrica on May 20. The Aberdeen-based firm has rapidly expanded, including its 2024 purchase of Eni’s UK assets. Finally the front-month Jul/Aug spread is at $0.62/bbl and the 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spread is at $1.72/bbl.
In our previous report, we anticipated a prolonged period of de‑risking in the Brent/Dubai complex, with prices oscillating within a broad band, and that’s exactly what we’ve seen. Over the past fortnight, the Jun’25 Brent/Dubai crack traded between -$0.25/bbl and +$0.80/bbl, settling at $0.55/bbl as of 20 May. There has been a recent void of trade house positioning in Brent/Dubai, with price action driven by smaller screens and hedging flow. Dubai and Murban spreads were also supported this week, which is consistent with the seasonal rally we typically see in spreads as refinery maintenance winds down and summer fuel demand picks up.
M1 Brent futures consolidated this week, seeing resistance at $66.80/bbl on 13 May. The contract failed to close below the 20-day moving average (white line) and saw support at around $63.45/bbl on 15 May. The 9-day moving average has acted as support from 15-20 May, as the contract saw higher lows. This would be the first hurdle to the downside, at $65.00/bbl. Below this, the 20-day moving average is trending to $64.00/bbl. On the upside, the first obstacle would be the Ichimoku cloud, which looms above the contract at around $66.90/bbl. Past this, the upper limit of the cloud coincides with the $68.50/bbl support level from early March, which acted as resistance in mid-April, so this may be a more substantial barrier to further upside.
There’s trouble in paradise! OPEC’s Secretary General went for the jugular of the IEA, writing a rebuke to what he sees as the Agency’s repeated under-counting of ‘missing barrels’. He’s especially unhappy with the “narrative that the IEA itself has propagated” that new investments in oil supply are not necessary, which jeopardises energy security. The big wigs are pulling their hair out and nitpicking about missing barrels but really they’re both missing the point: nobody knows! Both have their flaws, as it’s the IEA’s foolhardy and premature abandonment of hydrocarbons as a key energy investment versus OPEC’s inability to keep a handle on its members’ output… Physicians, heal thyselves… still! Yet again, Kazakhstan’s production is reportedly on the rise.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally to $65.65/bbl at 14:21 BST before falling off to $54.94/bbl at 14:51 BST. Prices then bounced back to $65.53/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Kazakhstan’s oil output rose 2% in May to 1.86 mb/d. The increase follows April’s 3% drop but still exceeds the country’s OPEC+ quota of 1.486 mb/d. Kazakhstan blames its repeated overproduction on the difficulty of curbing output from Western-led projects like Tengiz. The energy ministry insists it remains committed to OPEC+ and will offset excess output by 2026 but prioritizes national interests. In other news, Ukraine is urging the G7 to lower the price cap on Russian seaborne oil from $60/bbl to $30/bbl to tighten economic pressure on Moscow, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha said. This comes as the EU and UK announced new sanctions targeting Russia’s “shadow fleet” and financial networks helping it evade existing restrictions. While the EU is considering a revised cap of $50/bbl, Ukraine wants a more aggressive cut. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) warned on Tuesday that an above-average Atlantic hurricane season could disrupt oil production and refining along the Gulf Coast. With around 17 named storms forecast, weather-related shutdowns are increasingly likely. More than 1mb/d of refining capacity, about 5% of US petroleum consumption, could be preemptively halted in the path of major storms. AccuWeather expects 3 to 6 storms to directly hit the US this season, which runs June through November. Finaly, at the time of writing, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.62/bbl and $1.67/bbl respectively.
In the week ending 16 May 2025, exchange traded futures volumes in July Brent were almost unchanged, while WTI volumes decreased 1.76% w/w. In more deferred tenors, the weekly changes were more pronounced, with August Brent seeing the largest change, up 8.7%. In the July tenor, RBOB fell slightly more than WTI, while diesel contracts saw significant increases across the board, most notably the August tenor of the gasoil contract.
The buck that flat price dropped after Trump and Putin got on the phone was half regained before long and today’s Asian session saw a market not wanting to commit to a direction in the typically uncertain Trumpist diplomatic scene: he has a deadline. But when is it? Nobody knows… except him.
Over in the structural department, futures time spread structure has strengthened since yesterday’s close of Asia, as the prompt Brent spread increased to 70c at the close today, and the Aug/Sep spread is on a bulking phase at 55c too.
The North Sea bursts into life! Recent sessions had been sleepwalking into a deeply depressed diff, as almost nobody showed any buying interest. Today, however, Glencore barged in with enough bids to fill several VLCCs. They went on the hunt for Midland, throwing bids in like crazy, though not high enough to result in any trades. But then again, there were plenty of other buyers more than happy to lift Midland offers: Litasco lifted Exxon’s 31 May-4 Jun Midland at Dated +$1.05; PetroIneos lifted Aramco’s 9-13 Jun offer at $1.35 over Dated; Trafi lifted Aramco’s 13-17 Jun offer at Dated +$1.50; BP lifted Aramco’s 17-21 Jun at Dated +$1.60! Whew!
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in fuel oil and light ends swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally all afternoon to $65.95/bbl at 17:35 BST before falling off to $64.42/bbl at 18:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Indonesia is questioning a number Singapore-based trading firms as part of a $12B corruption probe into oil imports by state energy firm Pertamina between 2018 and 2023. Several Pertamina executives have been arrested, and authorities may question the firms in Singapore after failed summonses. Elliott Investment Management, now holding 5% of BP, is pressing for a quick replacement for outgoing Chair Helge Lund to drive a strategic revamp. The activist fund favours candidates with fossil fuel or mining backgrounds to restore investor confidence. BP may also need a new CEO, with former BP exec and current Rolls-Royce CEO Tufan Erginbilgic seen as a strong option. In other news, Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said oil exploration near the mouth of the Amazon River should proceed, but warned it must not delay the country’s shift to clean energy. The region is seen as Brazil’s most promising for new oil discoveries, yet drilling is controversial due to its location in the Amazon basin .Haddad emphasized the need to reduce reliance on oil through investments in alternative energy, reaffirming Brazil’s leadership in the global energy transition. According to Reuters, a potential US-Iran nuclear deal could lift sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports, flooding global markets and threatening China’s independent “teapot” refineries. These small refineries rely heavily on discounted and sanctioned Iranian crude. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.72/bbl and $2.02/bbl respectively.
Turning the vol down Over the week to 13 May, front-month Brent futures rallied to $66.55/bbl, their highest level since 28 April. ICE COT data for that week shows money managers added nearly 50 mb to their net long position,
In the week ending 13 May, the crude oil futures (Brent and WTI) saw support in price action. Total managed-by-money positions in the two futures benchmarks saw a 29mb increase in long positioning (+7%) alongside a 9.7mb removal of shorts (-5%). This bullishness was more reflected in Brent futures, while WTI futures saw speculative players remove long and short risk. Moreover, open interest declined in both Brent and WTI futures this week. Brent recorded a 22.8mb decline in open interest (-0.78%) while WTI recorded a 34mb decline in open interest (-1.7%).
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw a rangebound morning, initially trading between $64.81/bbl and $65.18/bbl. Prices then fell to $64.45/bbl at 11:31 BST (time of writing). In the news, Guyana has passed a new oil pollution bill that makes companies liable for oil spill damages, including those from vessels. The move comes as Guyana’s Exxon-led consortium ramps up offshore oil production, expected to exceed 900kb/d this year. The law aims to strengthen oversight of the rapidly growing energy sector. Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said oil exploration near the mouth of the Amazon River should proceed, but warned it must not delay the country’s shift to clean energy. The region is seen as Brazil’s most promising for new oil discoveries, yet drilling is controversial due to its location in the Amazon basin. In other news, Venezuela’s PDVSA has resumed exporting Boscan heavy crude after cancelling US-bound cargoes due to payment issues. This follows the US Treasury’s March revocation of a key Chevron license amid political tensions. PDVSA redirected a 920kb cargo to Malaysia marking the first such shipment since Chevron’s exports ceased. According to Reuters, China’s oil balance lengthened to an estimated 1.89 mb/d in April as strong imports outpaced falling refinery output. While not all surplus oil may have gone into official storage, the large excess gives refiners flexibility. With ample reserves, they can pause imports if prices rise or sanctions bite, maintaining supply without pushing up global prices. Finally the front month Jul/Aug spread is at $0.59/bbl and the 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spread is at $1.55/bbl.
The two juggernauts of the global economy are hitting bumpy territory, as the US’ fiscal integrity and debt mountain weigh on
Moody’s credit rating downgrade and China’s economic data fails to live up to expectations. The late-Friday rally that sent Brent
briefly above $65.50 faltered as optimism waned this morning. Before it lost its mojo, the market was really in party mode on
Friday evening! But this morning, the futures structure has cooled from that surge and the Brent front spread slipped from its 65c
high to 60c at the Asian close. However, that famous lopsided smile structure in the curve is still there, and it’s even crept
forward such that the structure slips into contango from the December 2025 contract, despite the prompt strength.
And breathe! The market needed a moment to pause and reassess after all the excitement of OPEC speculation and trade deal carnage. It’s been chaotic run lately, with the flat price rollercoaster entering a calming period after the ‘hold onto your hats’ moments of the past few weeks. Remember to read our Liquidity Report every Tuesday to see how exchange traded volumes vary week by week and year by year! But after all was said and done today, Brent closed at $65.06/bbl, up a healthy 80c/bbl on the day. The futures structure has strengthened somewhat through the 2025 tenors, with the front spread closing at 59c. It went even higher post-window, hitting even 63c! Flat price rose after the window too, going on an adventure towards $65.50 – it looks much healthier than in the first week of May!
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rangebound between $64.60/bbl and $65.02/bbl in the early afternoon. Prices then rallied to $65.47/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, the first round of talks between Russia and Ukraine conclude. President Zelenskiy dismissed Russia’s terms and coordinated with US President Trump and European leaders for a stronger response. Russia said talks could continue, but President Putin declined a direct meeting with Zelenskiy. In other news, Nigerian oil firm Renaissance Energy has halted production into the Trans Niger Pipeline following an operational incident on May 6 that caused an oil spill in the B-Dere community in Ogoniland. The pipeline has a capacity of around 450kb/d and has now seen two incidents in as many months. China has become the top buyer of Canadian oil shipped through the newly expanded Trans Mountain pipeline. Since full operations began in June 2024, Canada has exported an average of 207kb/d to China via the pipeline, up from just 7kb/d in the previous decade. In contrast, US imports from the pipeline averaged 173kb/d. The US is intensifying efforts to block Iran’s oil exports to China by cracking down on financial and logistical loopholes. According to Bloomberg, US Treasury officials visited Hong Kong in April to warn local banks against facilitating transactions linked to Iranian oil sales, especially those involving front companies and non-dollar currencies. Finally, the front month Jul/Aug spread is at $0.61/bbl and the 6-month spread Jul/Jan’26 is at $1.57/bbl.
PetroChina wrestled back dominance of the Dubai window following yesterday’s chaos, throwing down bid after bid, while also lifting plenty of offers. Mitsui didn’t want to be outdone, putting in a decent shift lifting offers by the likes of Exxon and Phillips, but it just couldn’t keep up with the zeal of the Chinese buyers, who scooped up another two convergences today: both Murbans, declared by Gunvor and Vitol. That brings the PC total for May trading to 8 – now double Mitsui’s count! Trafi also showed up on the buyside, picking off a few offers by Gunvor and Vitol. The Dubai physical premium seems to be treading water these recent sessions: after falling to $1.10 on Wednesday, it’s only ground up to $1.145 as of today.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract fell from $65.08/bbl to $64.20/bbl at 07:48 BST. Prices then jumped between $64.20/bbl and $64.65/bbl, and were trading at $64.56/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, US President Donald Trump has said he plans to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin as soon as possible, emphasizing that peace in Ukraine cannot be achieved until they meet face-to-face. Egypt’s Suez Canal Authority is offering a 15% fee discount for large containerships (13,500 TEU and above) over the next three months. The move follows a sharp drop in canal revenues due to ship diversions triggered by Houthi attacks on vessels. In other news, the UAE plans to boost its energy investments in the US to $440B by 2035, up from $70B currently. This announcement was made by Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC, during US President Donald Trump’s Gulf tour. The UAE has already committed $60B to new upstream oil and gas projects and unconventional energy opportunities with major US firms like ExxonMobil, Occidental, and EOG Resources. Kuwait plans to invest up to $50B over five years to boost its oil production capacity to over 3 mb/d. The country recently discovered significant reserves in the Al-Noukhitha offshore field. Canadian oil producer Strathcona plans a $4.25B takeover bid for MEG Energy to become Canada’s fifth-largest oil producer. Strathcona formally proposed the deal on April 28, but MEG’s board rejected it on May 13, saying they were not interested in a merger. Finally the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.55/bbl and $1.40/bbl respectively.
After a violent morning that sent front month Brent down all the way to $63.55/bbl, Brent felt a sense of reprieve throughout the European session, retracing some losses to close at $64.26/bbl. Everyone gets excited about resolution, especially after last weekend’s trade deal with China. But really progress is often slow, and while we have heard positive noises, we still await the paperwork to back it up, even if concerns about demand destruction by tariffs are massaged. One the supply side, the claims of progress between the US and Iran are playing their part too. No matter how impotent sanctions against Iran have proven in terms of restricting its exports, the prospect of unfettered Iranian supply back on the global market had the longs on the run! The easing of the sanctions would broaden demand and lower transhipment costs.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract climbed from $65.80/bbl at circa 12:20 BST to $66.50/bbl at 14:55 BST, where it met resistance. Price action attempted to breach this level thrice this afternoon but failed to breach past it, softening to $65.90/bbl at 16:35 BST. Finally, at the time of writing (17:45 BST), the futures contract stands at $66.28/bbl. US crude oil inventories increased by 3.45mb w/w in the week ending 9 May to 441.8mb (15.19mb lower y/y). The EIA also reported a muted 0.19mb build in US gasoline inventories to 225.7mb (-2.27mb y/y) and a 3.16mb decline in distillate fuel oil inventories to 103.6mb (-12.81mb y/y). In other news, a senior executive at Equinor reportedly told Reuters that Europe may need to keep offering attractive price levels to secure an additional 30 billion cubic metres (bcm) of LNG to restock its inventories. Elsewhere, Saudi Aramco has signed 34 preliminary agreements worth as much as $90 billion with major US companies in Saudi Arabia’s attempt to diversify its economy and attract foreign investment. The NOC commented that the agreements comprise LNG, fuels, chemicals, emission-reduction technologies and artifical intelligence. Finally, at the time of writing, the Jul/Aug’25 and Jul/Jan’26 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.49/bbl and $1.48/bbl, respectively.
Prompt Brent futures rallied this week, to the surprise of many, but failed to maintain strength above $66.60/bbl and softened on 14 Weds. EIA inventory stats on 14 May pressured price action with an unexpected 3.5mb jump in US crude inventories, despite forecasts predicting a draw. Prices gapped down further this morning due to renewed hopes for a US-Iran nuclear deal. Iran has signalled it’s open to limiting uranium enrichment in return for the US lifting economic sanctions, a move that’s gaining support from Saudi Arabia, which says it’s hopeful for a positive outcome from the talks. In the US, the stock market opened slightly higher on Wednesday, aiming for new record highs after recovering from its 2025 losses. Nvidia is up over 13% in five days and climbing again, while the “Magnificent 7” are outperforming the S&P 500, signalling renewed momentum and investor appetite for growth. Trump signed a $600 billion Saudi investment deal and a $142 billion US arms package, calling it the largest defence agreement in American history. This roofed US tech stocks this week. As for Brent, it is still seeing the trend of lower highs, as we have seen all year to date. The contract is back in its comfortable low-60s trading range, and the big names are divided as you would expect, with the IEA pegging global demand growth in 2025 at 740kb/d and OPEC projecting an optimistic 1.3 mb/d.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices fall from $64.66/bbl at 07:50 BST to $63.70/bbl at 08:20 BST. Prices slightly recovered to $64.31/bbl, but fell back down to $63.86/bbl at 11:40 BST (time of writing). In the news, president Trump said the US was close to a nuclear deal with Iran, and a senior Iranian official indicated Tehran might halt uranium enrichment if sanctions are lifted. In other news, the IEA expects global oil demand growth to slow to 650kb/d for the rest of 2025 due to economic challenges and rising electric vehicle adoption. The IEA also raised its 2025 global oil supply growth forecast to 1.6mb/d, mainly due to expected increases from Saudi Arabia, even as US shale output projections were lowered. This supply-demand imbalance is expected to push oil inventories up by 720kb/d on average this year. Japanese oil companies, including Eneos and Idemitsu Kosan, are scaling back decarbonisation plans like hydrogen and ammonia projects due to rising costs, energy security concerns, and global policy uncertainty. Eneos dropped its hydrogen supply target for 2040, while Idemitsu cut its low-carbon investment budget by 20%. Brazil’s state oil company Petrobras plans to return to Nigeria’s oil industry, focusing on deepwater exploration, according to Nigerian officials. The move aligns with its expanded $111B investment plan for 2025–2029, of which $77B is set for oil and gas exploration and production. Nigeria, eager to boost oil output, views this as a chance to attract fresh investment. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.41/bbl and $0.87/bbl respectively.
The percolating US-Iran deal and rising inventories whacked the market…hard! Brent got battered this morning! It dropped like a stone at the Asian open, falling 60c off the bat and continuing to decline to below $64 for the first time since very early on Monday morning. By the close it managed to rebound slightly to $64.06/bbl – down $2.21/bbl and almost 3.5% from the previous close. The Dubai window turned into a bigger bunfight than international diplomacy. PetroChina was getting whacked from all angles by Vitol, Reliance and co, while also lifting plenty of their offers. Trafi showed up on the buyside too, while Mitsui was throwing its weight around as well, lifting Vitol offers like there was no tomorrow. Long gone are the days of a binary window, dominated by one major player on each the sellside and buyside – May has been chaotic to say the least. While Vitol and PetroChina remain two of the most prominent participants, they are finding their influence eroded by this armada of competitors. Just today, Mitsui bagged another convergence with Vitol – its fourth convergence of May so far. They’re hot on PC’s heels, which is on 6!
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
