CFTC - Summary, Positioning Charts Report

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks in a timelier fashion relative to the official COT data. Over the past two weeks, net positions bottomed on 16 April at -145k lots, which was the lowest level since September 2024. Now, net positions are steadily increasing, rising to -93k lots by 28 April. RBOB is still the strongest underlying, at -3k lots, while Brent is the weakest, at -27k lots. Brent is quickly converging with WTI futures which is sitting at -26k lots.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks in a timelier fashion relative to the official COT data. In crude futures, Brent and WTI futures recorded a 180% and 227% decline w/w to -35k lots and -32k lots, respectively. Interestingly, net length had dropped to -37k lots and -34k lots in Brent and WTI, respectively, on 9 Apr, highlighting more support mid-week despite the overall w/w decline. In refined products, gasoil and heating oil futures fell by 138% and 116%, respectively this week to -33k lots and -23k lots. Finally, RBOB futures saw a 180% decline w/w from +3.7k lots on 7 Apr to -13.4k lots on 11 Apr.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. CTAs initially increased their net length, which surpassed 0, and reached highs of 20k lots on 03 April. However, with flat price collapsing, CTA positions sharply reversed, falling to -88k lots by 07 April. However, outright positioning is yet to surpass the lows reached in early March. As such, there is capacity for CTAs to provide further downside to price action. RBOB remains the most bullish out of the underlyings, while Brent has become the most bearish, at -27k lots. As a result, gasoil is no longer the most bearish underlying.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Bearish sentiment has slowly been picking up since total positioning hit flat on 21 Feb, falling to a three-month low of around -127k lots on 11 Mar. Overall net positioning increased over the past week, moving up to -74k lots on 24 Mar from -122k lots on 17 Mar. The majority of the selected futures contracts continue to be net bearish, except for RBOB, which continued to be in the positives at 12k lots on 24 Mar from around 5k lots a week ago. Brent futures and WTI are now at around the same level of estimated net positioning after Brent has seen better support this week.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Bearish sentiment has slowly been picking up since positioning hit flat on 21 Feb, falling to a three-month low of around -127k lots on 11 Mar. Positioning has seen little movement over the past week, moving up slightly to -122k lots by 17 Mar. The majority of the selected futures contracts continue to be net bearish, except for RBOB which flipped net bullish from -21.5k lots on 03 Mar up to 2.4k on 05 Mar. This week, RBOB futures positioning has increased slightly to 5.2k lots by 17 Mar. Brent futures sat the lowest on the positioning model this week, reaching -44k lots on 11 Mar, now at its most bearish positioning seen since September 2024. WTI positioning was close behind as the second lowest on the model, hitting -37k lots on 12 Mar. Heating oil and gasoil futures have both steadily declined from around -20k and -22k lots, respectively, to -26k lots each.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Since positioning plateaued around -81k and -85k lots at the beginning of March, we have observed the decline accelerate over the past few days. On 06 Mar, positioning fell below -100k for the first time since early December 2024, now sitting at -110k lots as of 07 Mar. As in our last report, Brent and WTI remain the lowest on the positioning model this week, falling from -23k down to -42k lots, and -21k to -34k lots, respectively, between 03-07 Mar. In addition, we saw bearish sentiment across both heating oil and gasoil, which declined from -3.7k to -19k lots, and from -10k to -23k lots, over the same period. In contrast, RBOB futures was the most bullish on the positioning model, rising from -21.5k lots on 03 Mar up to just under 2.4k lots on 07 Mar, flipping net positive for the first time since mid-February.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Since positioning plateaued around -81k and -85k lots at the beginning of March, we have observed the decline accelerate over the past few days. On 06 Mar, positioning fell below -100k for the first time since early December 2024, now sitting at -110k lots as of 07 Mar. As in our last report, Brent and WTI remain the lowest on the positioning model this week, falling from -23k down to -42k lots, and -21k to -34k lots, respectively, between 03-07 Mar. In addition, we saw bearish sentiment across both heating oil and gasoil, which declined from -3.7k to -19k lots, and from -10k to -23k lots, over the same period. In contrast, RBOB futures was the most bullish on the positioning model, rising from -21.5k lots on 03 Mar up to just under 2.4k lots on 07 Mar, flipping net positive for the first time since mid-February.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Overall, CTA net positioning became significantly more bearish heading into March, falling from around flat on 21 Feb down to -81k lots on 03 Mar. WTI and Brent crude futures continue to sit the lowest on the positioning model this week, falling from -19k lots to -21k lots, and from -18k to -25k lots, respectively, between the period 26 Feb to 03 Mar. This week, heating oil positioning flipped bearish for the first time in 2025, declining from around +3k lots on 26 Feb to -3.8k lots on 03 Mar. ICE gasoil also became significantly more bearish this week, falling from -2.6k down to -10.9k from 26 Feb to 03 Mar. Finally, over the same period, CTA positioning in RBOB futures was relatively stable, remaining in a range of -20k to -21k lots throughout most of the week.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Over the past week, we saw CTA net positioning briefly flip positive, increasing from -31.7k lots on 10 Feb up to 0.1k lots on 12 Feb, however, positioning fell back down to -17.4k lots by 17 Feb. We saw the most bearish positioning in Brent and WTI crude futures this week, sitting at -13.4k lots and -13.3k lots, respectively, as of 17 Feb. Heating oil remained highest on the model with the most bullish positioning fo 9.5k lots on 12 Feb, tapering off to 7.86k lots on 17 Feb. ICE gasoil moved from -3.8k lots to 2.5k lots amid bullish sentiment this week. RBOB positioning was at -3k lots on 10 Feb and briefly touched above flat on 12 Feb, hitting 1.8k lots, but declined to -1k by 17 Feb. Nevertheless, RBOB remains much higher than its monthly low of -11.4k lots on 03 Feb.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Over the past fortnight, we saw CTA net positioning become increasingly bearish and flip negative, falling from around 28.7k lots on 28 Jan down to -31k lots on 10 Jan. Brent futures positioning accounted for the majority of this decline, decreasing around 270% over the fortnight down to -15k lots. Meanwhile, WTI saw a similar trajectory, falling from 6.9k lots on 28 Jan down to -13.7k lots as of 10 Feb. Heating oil positioning remained above 0 while the rest of the products dipped below, with ICE gasoil showing the most bearish net positioning at -3.2k lots on 10 Feb. RBOB was the only futures contract where positioning became more bullish this fortnight, rising around 130% up to -2.8k lots, however, still remains the second lowest on the positioning model.