Data Vault Reports
Flux Insight Global Oil Balance
This report contains Flux Insight’s Global Oil Liquids Balance, with projections of world oil supply (including OPEC crude oil production) and world oil demand to derive implied global oil stock changes by quarter. This month’s revision to our global oil balance stems from the demand side, primarily from the US, China and India.
Flux CFTC Style COT Reports – 01 Sep 2025
Flux Insight’s CTA positioning model highlights net short CTA positioning across the futures benchmarks, except in RBOB, where net long positioning stood at +5.6k lots on 29 Aug. Meanwhile, Brent and WTI futures stood at -8.4k lots and -15k lots, respectively, on 29 Aug. Moreover, CTA net length in NYMEX heating oil and ICE gasoil stood at a muted -0.269k lots and -2.7k lots on 29 Aug, with net positioning in heating flipping from net long to short on 27 Aug. Finally, we caveat that while RBOB positioning remains above zero, normalising these levels shows that RBOB CTA positioning sits on the higher end of historical averages, with a z-score of +40 (between -50 and 50), which may encourage CTA sell-side interest.
Refinery Margins Report
In the week ending 29 August, refinery margins fell down the forward curve, with M1 Asian Refinery Margins down to $6.44/bbl, M1 European margins to $8.44/bbl, and M1 US margins down to $13.39/bbl.
Weakening across both the Brent and Dubai product cracks drove down Asian Margins, with the Kero/Dubai crack falling by $1.05/bbl w/w and the Gasoil and Sing 0.5 Brent Cracks falling by $0.69/bbl and $0.58/bbl respectively.
Cracks in Europe also weakened slightly with both GO and EBOB Cracks falling by $0.38/bbl over the week.
3.5 Bgs Crack saw the largest drop on a Monthly basis, with the M1 Crack in Europe falling by $2.05/bbl.
Weekly Oil Inventories Report
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx Positioning Accumulator – 26 August 2025
When there was no commitment of traders data, technical analysts looked for a workaround to infer overall position changes in the market. The analysis tests joint changes in a futures contract’s price and open interest to determine whether long or short positions were being added or whether long or short positions were covered. These outcomes are illustrated in Table 1 below.
To build our series, we test the conditions in Table 1 below and then qualify the change as one of the four outcomes. We then count the number of occurrences of each outcome in a lookback period to give the percentage of each outcome. The four outcomes over the lookback period always add up to 100%. The look-back period rolls over daily. Table 2 shows the price implications of the four outcomes. Tables 3 and 4 illustrate Open Interest, Volume and Price relations and Open Interest, respectively.
Onyx Positioning Report – 26 August 2025
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Weekly Oil Inventories Report
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx Positioning Accumulator – 19 August 2025
When there was no commitment of traders data, technical analysts looked for a workaround to infer overall position changes in the market. The analysis tests joint changes in a futures contract’s price and open interest to determine whether long or short positions were being added or whether long or short positions were covered. These outcomes are illustrated in Table 1 below.
To build our series, we test the conditions in Table 1 below and then qualify the change as one of the four outcomes. We then count the number of occurrences of each outcome in a lookback period to give the percentage of each outcome. The four outcomes over the lookback period always add up to 100%. The look-back period rolls over daily. Table 2 shows the price implications of the four outcomes. Tables 3 and 4 illustrate Open Interest, Volume and Price relations and Open Interest, respectively.
Onyx Positioning Report – 19 August 2025
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Flux CFTC Style COT Reports – 18 Aug 2025
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. CTA positioning declined further, from -48k on 11 Aug to -69k by 18 Aug. While positioning is still marginally more bullish than the April-May lows, this leaves room for additional selling pressure. The crude benchmarks are driving the bearish tilt, with Brent futures showing the weakest net positioning. Onyx’s CTA positioning index also highlights that Brent and WTI positions are now converging toward their long-term averages, marking a steady retreat from the relatively bullish stance seen in June-July.
Refinery Margins Report
In the week ending 15 August, refinery margins fell down the forward curve, with M1 Asian Refinery Margins down to $7.78/bbl and M1 European margins to $8.25/bbl.
Weakening across the Dubai cracks were the main driver in Asian Margins, with the GO/Dubai crack falling by $2.14/bbl w/w and the Kero and 380 Cracks falling by $1.55/bbl and $1.50/bbl respectively.
Similarly, in Europe Gasoil Crack fell by $1.60/bbl, and the 3.5 Bgs Crack fell by $1.20/bbl w/w.
Gasoil Cracks saw the largest drop on a Monthly basis, with the M1 Crack in Europe falling by $3.71/bbl, the GO/Dubai Crack fell by $7.47/bbl and the Asian M1 GO/Brent Crack falling by $9.13/bbl.
Weekly Oil Inventories Report
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report