The Officials

Trump is handing tariff letters as if they were paper towels. In fact he announced a 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors, but companies that invest in US manufacturing will not face any levies. He also stands firm against the Swiss and they’re playing their last card now, asking the FIFA President to negotiate 🤣. How about giving him a pamper full of chocolates and Swiss cheese for the trips in the Qatari plane? But the tiny hand man isn’t focusing on the real threat, the loss of stature of the US and the fact that BRICS had enough. The Officials have been flagging this as it could turn into a full-fledged exit from anything American. India and Russia met to address the “terrorism” from the US. On Wednesday, they signed a new protocol to enhance industrial cooperation across various sectors. The BRICS are getting stronger and this is only the start…And of course, Modi, who is really aggrieved, is soon meeting China’s leader, Xi.

India’s robust reply to Trump’s tariffs stunned quite a few traders. They say now that India had no other option. If this is the case, why did Trump push them to the brink? Tactically and strategically the US is losing friends faster than an oil trader without a job.🤣But enough of that, what did traders think of the jump in Saudi OSPs? High, they said, but the market demand is there. Traders expect China and India to continue to focus on Russian, Iranian and of course Other PG crude streams. Demand is good but the resumption of India’s buying for Russian crude altered the perception and reality of supply and the flat price is struggling. We have heard now of at least 6 Russian cargoes to discharge in India. Trump…take that! The Brent/Dubai swap went downhill this morning, it opened at -65c, and at Singapore close, it plunged to -$1!

Day 1 of the BRICS Liberation Day! Many nations encompassing billions of people and at least twice the US GDP are finally showing some resolve and standing up to Trump. India is the most vocal leader, with Brazil not too far behind, while China has stated its independent position clearly from the very beginning. Trump pushed the new Tariffs on India, and well…he broke the US leadership position. Brent flat price plummeted from $69.17 all the way to $67.95 in just 11 minutes in the aftermath of the US poorly timed action. We hope you went short! Some will ask, why is this bearish? India published a statement saying, “India will take all actions necessary to protect its national interests”. This means the Russian supply is back on officially. But why “BRICS Liberation Day”? India this afternoon realised it’s over with the papa Trump, China is already shifting -now seeking global market share in its currency-, Brazil talking about a BRICS currency, and Russia has been waving to the US for the last 3 years from afar. See more in the details!

Saudi OSPs are on the menu today -as confirmed by the Saudis- but it looks like the main course will arrive fashionably later than expected! ‘OSPs are slow,’ said a source. According to sources, Saudi Arabia was still calling people up this morning as they have extra crude to sell! So, dear reader, brace for lower OSPs than the $1.11 -what the monthly structure implies. Some sources are eyeing levels closer to 85c.
We said in the Euro 2.150 report that the KSA has room to crank the pumps, with a source saying, “We are looking at an additional 400 kbpd from Saudi in September.” Supply is increasing and yes, we expect the Saudis to underreport the production number. We, The Officials will remind you again, never trust government data!

And the trade rhetoric continues… with Trump singling out India, which “has not been a good partner.” He vowed to raise tariffs “within 24 hours” due to New Delhi’s continued appetite for Russian crude. A trader summed up the market view, “We are also asking ourselves if Russia stops into India (which I believe is extremely unlikely), how much more Russian can China absorb?” But the oil will only stop in qan imaginary world. Nearer us in Dubai, the trade carries on. The traders continue to move Russian barrels and three vessels are scheduled to be discharged imminently for IOC, Reliance and HPCL. Meanwhile, another source said, “Even over the weekend, EU/UK-sanctioned vessels were discharging”.

In the week ending 1 August 2025, as trading rolled into the October contracts, exchange traded futures volumes rose w/w across Brent, Gasoil and WTI in the first three tenors. Brent volumes experienced a particularly strong increase w/w with the December contract posting the largest gain – up nearly 53% w/w. WTI also recorded its biggest rise in the December tenor, though more modest at 22.46% w/w. By contrast, volumes in Heating Oil and RBOB futures declined in the October contract, down 13.14% and 1.06% w/w, respectively.

The bears are back. There is a mounting bearish sentiment in the market. Whether OPEC unwind means more barrels or not the signals say this baby is going down. Chevron is back in Venezuela, new discoveries in Brazil, and Saudi look primed to release more. Combine this with the end of summer burn and the poor macro indicators and you have an undeniably bearish concoction. And today Dubai got absolutely crushed. The physical premium shed 43c to $2.56, the softest since June 27. Look at Brent/Dubai September swap, which closed at -71c and is currently trading at around -65c, just on Friday the contract was at -$1.09!

Trump just cannot keep his mouth shut! The Donald decided to fire renewed tariff threats on India, because they don’t want to stop buying Russian. He “will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA”… We are sure they are quaking! Are they? Or they see another TACO coming? See India’s response on page 3. Seriously, can the US take on Russia, Iran, China, India and Europe? Europe he can, but that’s about it. But flat price jumped 67c in just 3 minutes on the news and the prompt spread rallied to 85c before retracing to the upper $68 handle and to the 80c mark, respectively.

Markets collapsed! The sentiment was extremely bearish and, in a way, it doesn’t matter what OPEC says it does or doesn’t do. The market is reacting to the overall interpretation of supply and things don’t look so good. We told you to go short or maybe we told you we were bearish. Well, here it is, by press time Brent had dropped over $1.00/bbl and was heading to the low $68 handle, why? The Saudi summer burn is over, in the markets we are talking about two months forward and there’s no summer burn there as far as the eye can see. And the broader economic narrative following the US tariffs are expected to chomp a bit of the global GDP. Moreover, product margins are going down as the Chinese crank out exports.

Boys and girls, the tariff fluff is over. India freaked out and tried to curry favour with the US and curtailed back usage of Russian crude and bought American crude, sending the market in a tizzy from 66 to 73 roughly. And despite their bending over like the EU they still were tariffed hard. What we have learnt in life is that if you bend over you get tariffed or worse. Ask the EU 🤣. And now it is all done, the Indian issued a tender and did their buying and the bloom came off the rose. See the tender volume results in the details section.

T-day round two! Trump has pulled out the tariff gatling gun once again, firing import duties seemingly at will, slapping 10% or more or none at all on imports bound for the US. About 40 countries’ exports to the US have been hit with 15% tariffs or more. Few have escaped his wrath, but Trump’s bud Kier has gotten off lightly with the UK only getting the 10% minimum!

The slow start to this month was brought to an abrupt end. A bombardment of new tariff threats raced across traders’ screens this week. Will Europe get whacked, or won’t they? Well, they did. Trump hit them with 15% tariffs, less than the initial 30%, but still a heavy-handed blow to the bloc. The euro suffered as a result, giving the DXY a new lease of life, surpassing even 100 points today, the highest since the end of May! Even if the $250 billion per year promised to buy US energy is farcical and little more than a big sticker to congratulate Donald on his negotiation skills, it does demonstrate just how far Europe’s willing to bend for big daddy America.

We thought this month would go through without too much carnage. But nah, it may be summer, time for margaritas or whatever drink with an umbrella to protect it against the hot sun, but hey, we were so wrong, like so wrong. And who is causing the mess? We give you one chance to guess!
Oh, the horror, the horror. We are wondering how many companies in the metals trading market are going to go under imminently and whether even some of the futures systems are up to par. Most Futures exchanges set margins based on standard deviations and as you look underneath the hood, the systems tolerate easily 7% declines, but the copper market loss cascaded into nearly a 25% loss. We hope all were able to cover their margins but if history is a guide there is a torrent of blood on the streets. And why, you may ask? Because Trump changed his mind on the copper tariffs and anybody who bought thinking he would not do a TACO, was skewered and then boiled in a copper pot.

Brent hits $73.50/bbl! And up we go flying, the moon is the next stop! What’s going on? WW3, coup d’etat, tariffs, Russia not selling, China buying, shipping interdiction on a massive scale? It starts to sound overdone but CTAs are hungry our sources tell us. They loaded up on short term $80 strike call options. Meanwhile, on the tariff front, India got hit by Mr T with 25% tariff plus some mystery “PENALTY” for funding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by buying Russian oil and military equipment. At least Mr. T called them friends before he whacked them. You could feel the love and the respect…not. A survey of Indian sources couldn’t figure out what exactly this penalty entails… some think it could be the 100% secondary tariffs for buying Russian oil. The Indians are at the end of their tether, perplexed about Trump’s game plan. Once you’ve refined a product and mixed it all up, there’s no telling where it came from. That’s why we maintain that these restrictions are nonsensical! Maybe the world will learn the US is not a dependable partner but a whimsical wannabe overlord.

The market went manic! Strong buying strayed into this morning with Brent peaking at $73.18/bbl. What was driving it? Woah, anybody we spoke with provided a minor glimpse into the roaring market, but they were almost grasping for straws. Two recurring themes surfaced: India and Russia or both. Some pointed to the Nayara refinery and its software, shipping and financial sanctions troubles due to the European intrusion into India’s affairs. Even Microsoft got into the act cutting off services before getting spanked by the courts. Westerners thought sanctions would cut off oil into India, but our Indian sources were like: What? Who is saying that? A whiff of Western arrogance was evident, but the Indians were nonplussed.

The good vibes have truly returned to the market. $70 looked like a ceiling for a couple of weeks, as Brent struggled along with that hard cap, but today it decisively broke through! If breaking 70 was smashing through the glass ceiling, $71 was shooting for the stars. By the close, Brent had made it to $70.80/bbl and bust through to above $71 shortly after!

In the week ending 25 July 2025, exchange traded futures volumes declined w/w across all contracts and throughout the first three tenors, with only exception RBOB futures volumes that rose in the October and November contracts and Brent futures which remained relatively unchanged in the same tenors. The biggest fall occurred in September tenor of the Heating Oil contract, which fell 35.15% w/w. Meanwhile, for both Brent and WTI it was also the September contract that experienced the largest drop in volumes, 25.15% and 23.94% down w/w, respectively.

The $70s are back! We made it! And Brent was fighting tooth and nail to keep hold of the handle, struggling through to the close, which it reached at $70.19/bbl before climbing towards $70.50. As we rumble towards expiry, the prompt spread continued to decline to 68c and the M2/M3 spread did too, reaching 62c at 16:30 Singapore time. Some folks are confused about the strength, but equally they didn’t see the purchasing by China to fill up reserves. The extra release by the Gulf area was over matched by the incremental Chinese. It will become evident whether China continues sucking extra barrels next month as the official pricing to be released around the fifth of the month super spikes. We think it will slow down but for now the market is very constructive.

In the game of chicken, the Europeans backed down first! Although the trade deal agreed with the US is just another example of European economic self-harm, there is one advantage – less uncertainty! What had smashed the market in April and sent economic analysts into a right tizzy was the uncertainty over what Trump would do next and how much damage he’d do. Now the Europeans know with certainty they have been had and some countries and corporates like it. Weird! The cocktail of trade optimism mixed with Trump’s venomous Russia jibes had the market on the up, even piercing $70, before sliding back to reach the close at $69.68/bbl.

The EU capitulated on the Tariff Wars! Someone has to eat some TACO and this time was Europe. Ursula von der Leyen said about the deal, ‘it was the best we could get.’ Someone needs to fire her and find another negotiator. Francois Bayrou, the French PM put it best: it is a dark day when an alliance of free peoples, united to affirm their values and defend their interests, resolves to submission.’ Submission it is. The new 15% tariffs agreed by the EU more than triple the existing 4.8% tariff system. You can use fancy words like the deal is asymmetric or just put it more plainly and say someone is going to indulge in a TACO fest. Somehow, the Germans and the Italians are happy with getting the raw end of a deal and only the French are making noise. From history, sadly, that’s all it amounts to, some whimpering noises but they have accepted the deal.

The Powell-Trump feud is getting ever more intense, as Trump accuses the Fed Chair of having added hundreds of millions more to the cost of Federal Reserve renovations… before Powell points out that’s from the construction of a separate building completed 5 years ago. We have to laugh, else we might just cry. The July FOMC is next week and there’s practically zero chance of a rate cut – maybe some with an eye on the top job will vote for a cut to curry favour. In the scheme of US spending, the Federal Reserve renovations are small fry, as the US Treasury has to roll over $7 trillion (!!) of debt this year alone.

The relief after the squeeze. The Murban futures to Dubai partials spread boomed to $1.16 yesterday, surging from 4c just on Monday. But you can only squeeze so hard before the release and today the spread collapsed back to only 40c, while the spread to Oman is back down to nearly 30c, from $1.10 yesterday!

Oil markets got hit! This time by no other than Mr Trump who likes low oil prices as you know. Brent swooned after having traded above the $69.50 mark. But the concern about more oil hitting the market brought prices down to around $68.50/bbl again. We keep on seeing this number again and again. Trump remembered he was elected on the promise to bring down oil prices and reportedly resumed Chevron’s permission to pump Venezuelan crude. Traders were seen sending texts back and forth about what it meant. More supply! Flat price immediately responded, dropping from $69.10 to $68.70 within moments – and then further down. Maybe he’s realised US refiners need heavy crude. The bluster just keeps unravelling as noise, more TACO salad anyone? Time to invest in Bose as demand for noise-cancelling headphones surges?

Hello, boys! We have another squeeze or if you want we can use some fancy terms like buying spree, short covering, physical requirements, refinery orders or whatever but the point is, there is trouble with the benchmarks again!
This time, the benchmark exhibiting funny behaviour (if you are not a buyer) is Murban. Not again! Yes, Murban but this time the pop is to the upside. Murban is surging by whatever measure. If you see the flat price behaviour…Boom, up $1.51/bbl since Friday. If you measure the spread relative to Brent, boom again, up $2.17/bbl in the same time frame. And relative to spicy Dubai another boom up $1.12/bbl since Friday.

The flat price was boring with Sep Brent trying desperately to pierce the $68.00/bbl to just bounce up again and again. In contrast, the window got messy and the Dated differential climbed 14c/bbl, after a brief respite yesterday when it held steady. Bids and offers were thrown around the window like frozen buns in a real food fight – with Midland setting the curve throughout. Chevron was there bartering its wares, offering two Midland cargoes, while PetroIneos offered one of its own. Exxon and Totsa returned to bid. Then Gunvor burst in to bid for Ekofisk, Forties and Brent, while Equinor offered Oseberg.
Mercuria and Phillips were bidding and offering Ekofisk, respectively. At least one bid or offer for all but one of the BFOETM grades! We only lacked a Troll to get the full set.

The market always has a few juicy rumours about trading car crashes and, every once in a while, about a big train crash with vast amount of dollar bills burned up. Nobody is immune, as we know after observing this markets for a long time. The psychology is that losses are more talked about than wins even though for every loser there is a winner. This time it is Vitol’s turn to be in the spotlight and just to make sure we don’t get it wrong we asked them. This hopefully minimises but not
totally eliminates the possibility of getting a letter crafted with great care and penmanship. Forgive me if I digress but I have been zinged before .

The bearish vibes kept gnawing away at flat price this afternoon, dragging it down to a low of $68.15 after the close as the prompt spread also slid to 79c from its intraday high. The structure is holding up further down the curve, though, as the widely watched Dec25/Dec26 spread is trading near 50c. Extra Middle East crude supplies are weighing down the market.

In the week ending 18 July 2025, exchange traded futures volumes rose w/w across Brent, WTI and Gasoil futures throughout the first three tenors. The biggest change occurred in October tenor of the Gasoil contract, which rose 53.5% w/w. By contrast, Heating Oil and RBOB exchange traded futures volumes decreased across the board, by small increments in all but the November RBOB contract, which dropped over 30% w/w.

The Dubai window continued in much the same vein as in recent sessions, with the physical premium remaining firmly anchored around the sticky $3 level it’s been inhabiting throughout July trading. Today, Gunvor was the aggressor, lifting
plentiful offers from the likes of PetroChina, which remained active offering though was less spritely at hitting bids than
we’ve seen lately, Reliance and Hengli, while Glencore got lifted a fair amount too. Exxon and Vitol joined in on the lifting bonanza but it was Gunvor alone that reached a convergence today, with Reliance nominating an Upper Zakum cargo. This brings July’s total convergence count to 13, of which every one has been UZ and only two have been nominated by non-PC sellers (Glencore and Reliance). Clearly, it’s Vitol that’s collected the most, having picked up 8, while Gunvor’s bagged 3 and Exxon got the other 2. This saw the physical premium slide slightly to $2.94.

Brent battled along through the European morning, managing to regain the $69 level, but hoping for some impetus from Team America. But Team America only added its weight to the downward momentum, seeing Brent all the way down at $68.43, though a late rebound meant it closed at $68.95/bbl.
Midland was the hot commodity in the North Sea window today. Totsa was bidding for a 12-16 August cargo at Dated +$1.65, while Exxon bid a later 21-25 August cargo at $1.60 over Dated. PetroIneos offered 14-18 August at Dated +$1.95, but nobody wanted to take the leap and cross the spread. But Midland wasn’t the only grade on the menu today, as Unipec bid both a 5-18 August Forties at Dated +$0.75, while also bidding the same price for a 7-9 August Brent. Ekofisk was also up for grabs, as Phillips offered a 7-9 August cargo at Dated +$1.75 and Totsa bid 10-12 at $1.50 over Dated. Despite this plethora of offers, nobody came together to trade and the physical differential bounced to 77.5c.

As noted earlier, The Officials sent a list of questions to Platts and we thank them for answering! We are still waiting for a reply from IFAD on similar issues.
Back to Platts, as you market practitioner know so well, Murban has been behaving erratically and has even plunged below the price of heavier Upper Zakum. Murban features in the delivery mechanism for Dubai partials and the price inversion, wherein Murban priced below heavier grades, has dragged down the assessed price of the main crude benchmark for the Middle East and Asia. As market sources replay the saga, many affected benchmark price users, including ADNOC, put pressure on various entities to address what they perceived as a pricing anomaly.

Dumper time! Just before the London close Brent plummeted more than $1, coincidentally as the UK joined in the party to spank yet more sanctions on Russia. Like the EU, the Brits lowered the price cap to $47.60/bbl – maybe they’re just desperate to get some deeply discounted crude to feed the beleaguered Lindsey refinery. The dump was coincidental in the timing as the oil market does not care what Europe has to say. The Russians and Chinese don’t care and they are the big ones that matter. But for good measure the Indians officially don’t care either! Hey, they have a lot of mouths to feed and they’re not listening nor following any unilateral sanctions, only UN ones. Just to be clear, the Chinese and Russians have a veto, so forget about UN sanctions. By the close, Brent had fallen back to $69.55/bbl. The prompt spread had been enjoying the gradual rise through the session, back above $1 – but also dumped in the window to 91c.

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Brent remained in the $68/bbl lever before charging ahead back to the $69 handle. A trader notes, ‘there is a lot of buying at the $68.50 level.’ The late London rally took it to $69.40/bbl. By press time. The prompt spread has rebounded from its low at under 80c yesterday to 94c by today’s close. As Brent traded in a comfy range today, the broader markets have largely recovered from the wobble and panic that Powell would be booted, with the USD strengthening again, while equity markets climbed and treasury yields fell slightly. Trump should know by now that the bond market is king and not him. Gold slid significantly, dropping 0.7%, while other metals, including platinum, continued their rally.

Top heavy? Short sell?  Nvidia’s been a massive driver of the last few months of stock market rally and has even exceeded the GDP of major countries! It’s market cap is now bigger than the GDP of Canada, the UK and India – and Germany’s next on the hitlist. In terms of market capitalisation, Nvidia is bigger than all but 5 national stock markets!  Only Hong Kong, India, Japan, China and the US itself are the only ones bigger! The stock market’s centre of gravity looks somewhat high, with such a mammoth share in a single company, and don’t look too closely at the price-to-earnings ratio! The impact of a correction on Nvidia will make us all cry. Get your handkerchiefs ready. Sanctions and secondary tariffs on Russian oil could put up another hurdle for India’s economy, as you’ll find out on page 2… But they don’t care.