Dated v Brent:
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Edge Updates

Dated Brent Report – Last Chance D(ated)

While outright values suggest that the physical market is tight, whether or not this translates to a bullish market is a subjective matter. Notional values are high, but CFD rolls continue to roll down weekly. The 21-25 July 1-week roll is down from $0.50 to $0.10/bbl, and the 28-01 Aug 1-week roll is down from $0.45 to $0.30/bbl. The culprit? A relentlessly strong physical market. The market is implying forward differentials at stratospherically high levels, so even if the physical strengthens, it is insufficient, weakening the CFD rolls. As it stands, early August weeks are pricing above $1/bbl. The 21 July physical window was constructive, with the physical rising from $0.69 to $0.77/bbl, but there are still ways to go.

Dated Brent Report – Rolling Down

The geopolitical risk premium may have faded, but the continued rally in Brent structure highlights the market's resilience. Futures spreads have been on a steady upward trend since the beginning of May, with Sep/Oct Brent strongly backwardated above $1/bbl (time of writing). The market has fundamental strength, with strong refinery margins that are a driver of crude demand. Resurgent distillate strength took the market by storm, but something has to give. Product cracks would eventually correct lower on account of higher production. At the same time, hot temperatures across Europe and heat-related disruption would force refiners to cut their run rates, tempering crude demand. Nonetheless, Forties saw buying from Chinese players (Petroineos and Unipec) in the physical window, taking advantage of momentary Dated weakness and Dubai strength to fix arbs into Asia potentially.

Brent v Dubai:
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Edge Updates

Dubai Market Report – Summer Lull

While the Bal-Jul’25 Brent/Dubai briefly ticked up from -$1.20/bbl on 1 Jul to -$0.65/bbl on 3 Jul, the contract sold off to a low of -$1.46/bbl on 15 Jul. Similarly, the Aug’25 Brent/Dubai weakened from -$0.09/bbl on 3 Jul to -$0.45/bbl on 10 Jul

Dubai Market Report – Back to the Status Quo

The Dubai market has largely returned to normality as geopolitical risk unwinds. As per usual, the Strait of Hormuz didn't close this time, although there was noticeably more market anxiety. The forward curve is being heavily pressured, with Brent/Dubai boxes aggressively selling off. On the first day of July pricing, the Jul'25 Brent/Dubai fell below -$1/bbl, while the Jul/Aug'25 box came off to -$0.95/bbl, which marks an extreme contango structure. Aug'25 is following suit and was the next contract to fall below flat. Another notable drop was Q4'25/Q1'26, which fell from $0.05 to -$0.15/bbl. The market has largely disregarded the prospect of OPEC+ supply hikes, interpreting it as existing overproduction being formalised. The combination of the market buying Cal26 and selling front boxes would have put participants comfortably in the money. Here, trade houses and majors were the main players. Previously, we noted that refinery sell side hedging flows in Cal26 had distorted Brent/Dubai. Now that these flows have subsided, this distortion has left a vacuum conducive to a mean reversion. There is greater conviction in the downside for Brent/Dubai boxes as these flows are more speculative, whereas refinery flows are more price-agnostic.

Upcoming events

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COT Deep Dive – TA Arb

2d ago
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European Window: Brent Drops to $68.50/bbl

2d ago
The Sep’25 Brent crude futures saw a bearish Friday afternoon, falling from $69.70/bbl to $68.50/bbl where it found some support. This level was also where prices found support on Thusday evening. Nonetheless, prices have been rangebound between $68 and $70/bbl this week as volatility has sharply declined. In the news, Syria’s energy ministry has announced a tender to sell 500kb of heavy oil crude, where bids must be submitted in person by 5 August. US Gulf Coast refiners have increased their buying of Middle Eastern and South American crudes to offset the loss of Venezuelan and Mexican barrels; however, this ...

COT Deep Dive – MOPJ Crack

2d ago
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European Window: Brent Drops to $68.70/bbl

3d ago
The Sep’25 Brent Futures contract rallied from $68.88/bbl to $69.49/bbl at 17:11 BST. Prices dropped to $68.70/bbl at 17:33 BST (time of writing). In the news, Chevron is regaining permission from the Trump administration to resume oil production in Venezuela, according to WSJ. The agreement comes shortly after a prisoner swap that freed the last 10 Americans held by the Venezuelan government. Chevron confirmed it would continue to operate in line with US laws and sanctions. Earlier this year, the Trump administration revoked Chevron’s license granted under President Biden. Venezuela’s production has stayed at around 900kb/d to 1 mb/d, with ...

Trader Meeting Notes: $70/bbl? No, thank you!

3d ago
Last week, we spoke about how it was difficult to hold Brent above $70/bbl, and absolutely nothing has changed. The M1 Brent futures contract moved from a high of $70.80/bbl on 18 Jul to closing sub-$70/bbl on the day and eased to a low of $68/bbl on 23 Jul. Prices met support here but remain at $68.90/bbl. Focus remains on refinery margins and middle distillate cracks. However, while gasoil cracks remain high, the M1 ICE LS gasoil crack has sold off from a high of $27.20/bbl to $24.35/bbl, raising concerns for the bullish trend driving middle distillates for over a ...

European Window: Brent Rallies to $68.53/bbl

4d ago
The Sep’25 Brent Futures contract saw a volatile afternoon with prices bouncing between $68.47/bbl and $68.03/bbl. Prices then rallied to $68.53/bbl at 17:28 BST (time of writing). In the news, US crude oil inventories dropped by 3.2 mb to 419 mb in the week ending 18 July according to the EIA. The drawdown was supported by higher demand and exports, with crude exports rising to 3.86 mb/d and net imports falling by 740kb/d. Gasoline stocks fell by 1.7 mb to 231.1 mb, while gasoline demand rose to 8.97 mb/d, though still below typical summer levels. Refinery utilisation climbed to 95.5%, ...

COT Report: Sentiment Turnaround

4d ago
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European Window: Brent Falls Below $69.00/bbl

5d ago
The Sep’25 Brent Futures contract initially rallied to $69.02 at 13:34 BST before falling to $68.21 at 15:08. Prices have since slightly recovered to $68.33/bbl at 17:35 BST (time of writing). In the news, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with his Chinese counterpart in Stockholm next week to discuss a likely extension of 12 August deadline for a trade deal. Bessent described the current US-China trade relationship as "constructive," highlighting recent progress including China ending its rare earth export ban and the US resuming key tech exports. Without a deal or extension, tariffs could revert to 145% on ...

Events

Jul 29, 2025
19:00
FOMC Meeting
in 3d
Jul 30, 2025
08:00
Fujairah Inventories
in 4d
21:30
API Stats Release
in 4d
API Stats Release
in 4d
Jul 31, 2025
15:15
ARA Product Inventories
in 5d
18:30
Sep25 Brent Expiry
in 5d
Aug 6, 2025
08:00
Fujairah Inventories
in 11d
21:30
API Stats Release
in 11d
API Stats Release
in 11d
Aug 7, 2025
15:15
ARA Product Inventories
in 12d
Aug 12, 2025
11:00
Aug25 ICE Gasoil Expiry
in 17d
13:00
OPEC OMR
in 17d
OPEC OMR
in 17d
17:00
EIA STEO
in 17d
Aug 13, 2025
08:00
Fujairah Inventories
in 18d
21:30
API Stats Release
in 18d