The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices initially move up to $62.16/bbl at 14:09 BST only to quicky fall to $60.74/bbl at 15:04 BST. Prices have since gained some support at $61.37/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing). In the news, China is reportedly considering ways to address the Trump administration's concerns over its role in the fentanyl trade, as per WSJ, potentially offering a way to allow for trade talks to begin. OPEC+ has moved its key meeting to Saturday, 3 May, to finalise plans for a June potential output hike of 411kb/d. Saudi Arabia appears ready to tolerate ...

In this publication, we leverage Onyx's proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Jun'25 Fuel Oil 380 East/West.

Down is up and up is down this week. Speculation has been wild about which way the collective OPEC thumb will point. The main victim in this has been Dubai crude, which has been under heavy pressure amid the likelihood of extra barrels from the Middle East. Saudi Arabia reminded the market that they can drop hints as unsubtle as they please, as they wondered out loud if a price war would make everyone behave. How many grains of salt to take this with is tricky. The USD held quite well despite disappointing GDP figures. Disappointing to some! We are ...

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally from $59.42/bbl at 12:00 BST to $61.78/bbl at 15:42 BST. Prices have since fallen off and are at $61.01/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, the US and Ukraine have signed a deal to share future profits from Ukraine’s mineral and energy reserves. The agreement also establishes a US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund and includes provisions giving the US access to some of Ukraine’s natural resources in return for future security guarantees. In other news, Saudi Arabia may increase oil output starting in June. Sources told Reuters and Bloomberg that ...

Jul’25 Brent futures saw heavy losses this afternoon, from $62.80/bbl at 16.35 BST to lows of $60.80/bbl at 16.55 BST before it retraced slightly to $61.30/bbl at 17.10 BST (time of writing). Reuters reported that Saudi Arabian officials are briefing allies and industry experts to say the kingdom is unwilling to prop up the oil market with further supply cuts and can handle a prolonged period of low prices, five sources with knowledge of the talks said. In 2024, Saudi Arabia's non-oil exports (including re-exports) rose by 13.1%, signalling progress in diversifying its economy. However, total merchandise exports fell by ...

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw a volatile afternoon, trading between $63.91/bbl at 13:02 BST and $63.10/bbl at 17:38 BST (time of writing). In the news, Scotland's only oil refinery at Grangemouth has permanently stopped processing crude oil after 100 years of operation, following a decision announced in 2024 by owner Petroineos. The site will now function as an import and distribution hub for fuels. The closure, attributed to competition from modern refineries in Asia and the Middle East, has led to 430 job losses, with around 70 staff remaining. India is significantly increasing its imports of US crude oil ...

The Dated Brent market continues to drift lower, with the May'25 DFL falling from a high of over $1.40/bbl last Wednesday (23 Apr) to $0.70/bbl at the time of writing on 29 Apr. Simultaneously, the lower crude levels have supported the M1 European refinery margin, which strengthened from $6.75/bbl on 23 Apr to $8.10/bbl at the time of writing. We saw banks selling the DFL to hedge these high margin levels, which drift higher as Dated Brent weakens further.