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Friday’s payrolls were weaker than expected with -92k jobs lost (estimate +59k) with the unemployment rate unexpectedly rising from 4.3% to 4.4%.
Bond yields continue to rally as U.S. data continues to surprise to the upside, with stronger than expected jobless claims, ADP jobs and Challenger layoff reports. Today we have the main U.S. payroll report with forecast +59k jobs create and unemployment rate of 4.4% unchanged.
Hedge fund deleveraging yesterday ‘Get me out of everything’. Yesterday saw equities down, bonds down, precious metals down with the safe haven winner the dollar, with it’s biggest 2-day gain in a year.
Risk turned yesterday afternoon and with Brent ripping higher the bond market now sees this as a bigger inflationary risk than growth shock.
Gold +2.4%, Silver +2%, S&P 500 futures -1.6% right on critical support 6780, bond yields opened lower but are back on Fridays close.
While Nvidia falls 5.5% on blowout earnings Jack Dorsey’s Block Inc jumped 22% on news they are cutting 4,000 employees (40% of headcount).
Nvidia revenue guide of 79%YoY growth (way ahead of consensus) shows the AI data centre buildout isn't losing momentum. (Chart 1, FT, LSEG)
US consumer confidence jumps to 91.2 from an upwardly revised 89 last month on more upbeat prospects for the economy, job market and incomes.
AI was meant to lift all boats. Instead, it’s triggering selling everywhere: software on disruption fears, Mag7 on capex fatigue, and semis on expectations of an AI spending slowdown driven by DeepSeek and China.
After the US Supreme court struck down President Trumps tariffs, Trump approved a new 15% ‘temporary’ tariff.
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