In the week ending 8 July, the Sep ’25 Brent futures contract climbed higher into the $69/bbl level and reached its highest level since the geopolitical sell-off. The market has shrugged off OPEC’s supply hike as largely formalising overproduction, while weighing up Trump’s renewed tariff threats. Recent strength in crude has been attributed to strength in product cracks amid a tight market, indicated by strong backwardation in crude futures spreads. We expect money managers to improve their net length across the selected oil futures benchmarks (Brent, Gasoil, RBOB Gasoline), with long positions in Brent to rise by 12mb. It is expected to be a risk-on week for physical players, with prod/merc positions increasing across the contracts.
Onyx’s CTA model indicates a renewed increase in net positions in the oil futures benchmarks. ICE LS gasoil futures is the most bullish out of the benchmarks, while Brent remains the most bearish, with net positions still negative.
Further information on other categories and contracts can be found in the report.
