In the week ending 24 June, the M1 Brent futures contract saw initial strength, supported by the conflict between Israel and Iran. US involvement in the conflict against Iran strengthened the futures contract to $81/bbl on the open on 23 Jun, where we saw sellers emerge. Moreover, Iran’s less-severe-than-expected retaliatory strike on a US military base in Qatar and President Donald Trump’s subsequent declaration of ceasefire between Israel and Iran triggered a $10 sell-off in prices on 23 Jun. The contract finally closed at $67.80/bbl on 24 Jun. ICE LS gasoil and RBOB gasoline futures flat price contracts also sold off in line with crude. The M1 ICE LS gasoil crack weakened from $25.50/bbl to a low of $18.70/bbl between 19 and 24 Jun, but rose to $21.35/bbl. The M1 RBOB vs Brent crack surged up to $20.30/bbl on 23 Jun but retreated to $19.70/bbl the next day and to $19.15/bbl at the time of writing on 26 Jun.
Amid these price changes, Onyx’s CFTC predictor anticipates an exodus of over 31mb managed-by-money long positions in Brent futures alongside an addition of over 10mb of short positions in the week ending 24 Jun. This marks a flip from the previous two weeks’ bullish changes in positioning.
Further information on other categories and contracts can be found in the report.
