In the week ending 8 Jul, exchange open interest in Brent and WTI futures increased by a combined 73.9mb (+1.60%) following three consecutive weeks of de-risking. This increase was more prominent in Brent futures, which recorded a 72.1mb rise (+2.7%) in open interest. This week was marked by players largely pricing in an OPEC+ production hike for August, although any bearish reaction to this hike was tempered by persistent overproduction by OPEC+ members. Moreover, Saudi Arabia increased the official selling price (OSP) for August for its crude grades to Asia, with the OSP for Arab Light crude oil up $1/bbl m/m, reaching its highest level since April 2025 at $2.20 above the average of Oman and Dubai, supporting crude prices. Further uncertainty now emerges due to US President Donald Trump’s tariff threat, with the White House extending its tariff deadline from the first week of July to 1 Aug. Moreover, President Trump has also announced plans to send offensive weapons to Ukraine against Moscow, which may inject further geopolitical risk premium into oil prices.
