The Aug’25 Brent futures gapped up to $79.16/bbl at market opening. Prices then started falling throughout the morning to $76.44/bbl at 09:16 BST, before bouncing back to $77.56/bbl at 11: 34 BST (time of writing). The hike comes after the US joined Israel in striking Iranian nuclear sites, escalating tensions in the Middle East and driving fears of potential supply disruption. Analysts say the market is pricing in a geopolitical risk premium, especially around the threat of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. While a sustained closure would hurt Iran’s own economy, even short-term threats could spike prices. Goldman Sachs warned Brent could temporarily hit $110/bbl if flows through the strait were halved for a month. In other news, Italian energy giant Eni has reduced staffing at its Zubair oil and gas field in Iraq as a precaution, a company spokesman said Monday. Eni is closely monitoring the situation in coordination with authorities. Meanwhile, Shell and Chevron, which also operate in Iraq, declined to comment. Vår Energi (VAR.OL) announced Monday that its long-delayed Balder X project in the North Sea is now operational. The development is expected to extend the Balder field’s life beyond 2045 and boost gross production by 80 kb/d. Balder X is key to Vår’s plan to increase output to over 400 kb/d by year-end, up from 272 kb/d in Q1. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep and 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spreads are at $1.48/bbl and $5.62/bbl.
