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Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent flat sub-$67.00/bbl

Sep’25 Brent futures softened from $66.90/bbl at 0800 BST to $66.55/bbl at 1048 BST before inching back up to $66.90/bbl

Sep’25 Brent futures softened from $66.90/bbl at 0800 BST to $66.55/bbl at 1048 BST before inching back up to $66.90/bbl at the time of writing at 1120 BST, the time of writing. The UK government is funding the official receiver to ensure safe operations at Lindsey Oil Refinery after its owner, Prax Lindsey Oil Refinery Limited, filed for insolvency. Around 1,000 jobs are at risk, including contractors, prompting calls for worker compensation and an investigation into the company’s directors. The plant, bought by Prax Group in 2021, reportedly lost £75 million between then and February 2024. Polish refiner Orlen has officially ended all Russian oil imports, with its final contract—supplying the Czech Litvínov refinery—expiring in June 2025. This completes Orlen’s transition to non-Russian crude across all its refineries, aligning with EU goals to reduce dependency on Russian energy. The company now sources oil from regions including the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas. The IEA forecasts that crude oil demand from the petrochemical sector will rise to 17.4% of total oil consumption by 2030, driven by increased plastics and synthetic fibre use. The IEA forecasts feedstock demand to reach 18.4 mb/d by 2030, up 2.1 mb/d from 2024 levels. This includes a 1.1 mb/d rise in naphtha demand (to 10.2 mb/d) and a 990 kb/d increase in LPG/ethane demand (to 8.2 mb/d), supported by US growth in NGL supply. The agency predicts that demand for crude oil used in combustible fossil fuels, excluding petrochemical feedstocks and biofuels, could reach its peak as early as 2027, despite ongoing growth in jet fuel consumption. Global Crude oil production in JODI-reporting countries rose by 201.8 kb/d m/m and 1.16 mb/d y/y. The growth noted an increase in oil production mainly from Nigeria, Canada, and Saudi Arabia. The US will lift sanctions on Syrian oil imports effective today, reversing a 2011 ban, while maintaining sanctions on key figures like Bashar Assad and affiliated groups. The move follows a temporary waiver and aims to support Syria’s economic recovery. Syria, once a major crude exporter, now produces only 90 kb/d, down from 442 kb/d in 2004. Finally, the Sep/Oct’25 front-month spread is at $0.94/bbl, and the 6-month Sep/Mar’26 spread is at $2.22/bbl.

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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.