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Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Rallies to $71.46/bbl

The Sep’25 Brent futures rallied to $71.19/bbl at 08.48. Prices fell to $70.76/bbl but bounced back to $71.46/bbl at 11:05 BST (time of writing). In the news, China’s crude oil imports surged to 12.14 mb/d in June, a 7.4% y/y increase, driven by higher deliveries from Saudi Arabia and Iran. The spike was fuelled by refinery restarts and independent refiners capitalising on steep discounts for sanctioned barrels. Saudi crude shipments rose by 845 kb/d to 1.78 mb/d, while Iranian imports climbed by 445kb/d despite US sanctions. These discounted barrels were particularly attractive to China’s “teapot” refineries in Shandong. In other news,  EU envoys are nearing agreement on an 18th sanctions package against Russia, which includes lowering the price cap on Russian oil. The package aims to curb Moscow’s energy revenues in response to its invasion of Ukraine. A floating price cap, set at 15% below the average market price of Russian crude over the past three months, is part of the package, with an initial cap of about $47/bbl. The price will be revised every six months. Slovakia has raised concerns but has agreed to the new measures. A formal approval is expected at a foreign ministers’ meeting on Tuesday. The Cano Limon-Covenas Oil Pipeline in Colombia was bombed by unknown actors, causing a suspension of oil pumping between the northeast oil fields and the Caribbean coast. The operator, Cenit, activated a contingency plan to manage spills and environmental contamination. The military suspects the National Liberation Army (ELN) and FARC dissidents may be behind the attack. No casualties were reported. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Sep/Oct spread is at $1.27/bbl and the 6-month Sep/Mar spread is at $3.65/bbl.

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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Flux's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.

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