The Aug’25 Brent futures contract traded between $75.20/bbl and $73.97/bbl in the morning before falling off to $73.48/bbl at10:13 BST. Prices bounced back to $73.74/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Iran may consider withdrawing from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the foreign ministry said, as lawmakers begin drafting a bill in response to Israel’s recent airstrikes. Despite missile exchanges, including Iranian strikes on Tel Aviv and Haifa, oil infrastructure and flows through the critical Strait of Hormuz remain unaffected. According to petrologistics data, Iranian exports averaged 1.6 mb/d from Jan to May ’25 and any disruption to this could tighten supply, especially for Chinese buyers, and drive up freight and insurance costs. In other news, China’s crude oil processing fell 1.8% y/y in May to 13.92 mb/d, the lowest since August, due to refinery maintenance. Refinery utilization hit its lowest level since late 2022, with 11 plants undergoing full or partial shutdowns. Despite the drop, independent refiners in Shandong saw slight margin gains. Throughput is expected to rebound in June as state-run refineries wrap up maintenance. Meanwhile, domestic crude production rose 1.8% to 4.35 mb/d. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser stressed the ongoing importance of oil and gas during times of conflict, speaking via video at the Energy Asia Conference in Kuala Lumpur. Without naming Israel or Iran, he noted current geopolitical tensions were underscoring energy security concerns. Nasser argued that energy transitions add new sources rather than replacing old ones, and warned the shift to net-zero emissions could cost up to $200 trillion. Finaly, the Aug/Sep front month spread is at $1.32/bbl and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spread is at $4.39/bbl.
