The Aug’25 Brent futures contract softened this morning to around $72.80/bbl at 0800 BST before it strengthened to $74.55/bbl at 1200 BST (time of writing). Iran and Israel continued exchanging fire for a fifth consecutive day, with Iranian media reporting explosions and intense air defence activity over Tehran overnight. In response to earlier Israeli strikes, Iran launched two waves of missiles, triggering air raid sirens in parts of central and northern Israel during the early hours. The latest attacks were less intense than previous nights, and no direct hits or casualties have been reported. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, US President Donald Trump said he isn’t seeking a ceasefire, but “something better.” When asked what that meant, he replied, “A real end. Not a ceasefire. An end.”. Iran’s crude oil production rose to 3.48mb/d in May, reaching its highest level in nearly seven years, according to the latest data from the International Energy Agency. This is the strongest output since August 2018, when production peaked at 3.62 mb/d. The figure excludes natural gas liquids, which have also been growing rapidly. Although it had previously been reported to have been working, the Haifa oil refinery was forced to shut down its facilities following a missile strike launched by Iran. According to the company, it is working closely with the Israel Electric Corporation, which “immediately mobilized” in response, to restore stable electricity to the complex as quickly as possible. Brazil’s state-run oil company Petrobras has signed contracts worth 4.9 billion reais ($892.3 million) with engineering firm Consag to complete “Train 2” at its RNEST refinery. The project, which includes a diesel hydrotreatment unit and other infrastructure, aims to double the refinery’s capacity. Operations are expected to begin in 2029. Finally, the Aug/Sep front month spread is at $1.35/bbl and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spread is at $4.40/bbl.
