9 May 2025: 16:30 BST
Markets felt good this morning but by lunchtime Brent flat price began to feel heavy near $64 and it fell back before regathering and
building up to reach the close at $63.58/bbl. Talking about falling back, just how far can the North Sea physical fall? It was so
strong at $1.13 just on 24 April but a deluge of Midland offerings in the North Sea window has tanked it to -48c yesterday, as little
to no buying interest has materialised to absorb those cargoes – though it rebounded slightly to -32.5c today. ‘The North Sea
market is very long,’ said an Asian buyer whose company is going into turnarounds. And the North Sea is long despite loads of
Midland cargoes going East. ‘Some of the Midland sales make no sense but the buyers want to show something to Mr Trump.
These purchases also affect Murban as buyers of Midland cut other competing grades. And don’t forget there’s a lot of Forties
floating about since Grangemouth closed, around 6 extra cargoes a month. No wonder Forties has set the Dated benchmark
recently… But today no sooner had the window opened than Gunvor, Aramco, BP and Unipec all charged in to offer Midland.
Aramco tried to tempt buyers with a 30 May-3 June Midland offered at Dated +$1.15 and offers for 2-6 June at $1.40 over Dated
and 4-8 June at Dated +$1.50. BP offered similarly, while Gunvor also offered an 11-15 June cargo at Dated +$1.45.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
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