Onyx Research

Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.

European Window: Brent Above $70/bbl

Sep’25 Brent futures contract continued to rally this afternoon to $70.25/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing). US Gulf Coast fuel oil imports dropped t

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Sep’25 Brent futures contract continued to rally this afternoon to $70.25/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing). US Gulf Coast fuel oil imports dropped to a record low of 213 kb/d in June. Reuters reported that refiners chose cheaper heavy sour crude, like Mexico’s Maya, over high-priced high-sulphur fuel oil. This shift reduced imports and stocks, with Gulf Coast fuel oil inventories falling to 10.63 mb, their lowest since March 1996. According to its SEC filing, ExxonMobil warned that lower crude, NGL, and gas prices may cut Q2 earnings by $1.1–1.9 Bn. Despite the outlook, ExxonMobil shares rose 2% in Tuesday morning trading. Officials have set a provisional two-week deadline to find a buyer for Prax Lindsey refinery, which supplies 10% of the UK’s fuel and remains operational under a temporary crude supply deal with Glencore, amid insolvency proceedings and an investigation into its owners over £250 million in tax debts. Restructuring specialists FTI Consulting have begun canvassing interest in the 400-employee site and may also market other Prax Group assets. JODI reported that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production increased by 48 kb/d in April, while crude exports jumped by 412 kb/d. Finally, the front-month Sep/Oct and the 6-month Sep/Mar spreads are at $1.17/bbl and $3.30/bbl, respectively.

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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.