Front-month Brent futures stabilised this afternoon following the huge pressure it was under in the morning. The contract saw support just above $64.00/bbl at around 15:50 BST and was more supported at $65.40/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing). China announced retaliatory tariffs on all US products in response to similar tariffs imposed by President Trump this week. China announced 34% retaliatory tariffs on all American imports starting 10 Apr, in the first Chinese response to Trump’s tariffs. This response was received poorly by Mr Trump, who said they “played it wrong”. While the US tariffs excluded energy products, China’s retaliatory measures targeted all American goods and included export restrictions on certain rare earth elements. JPMorgan expects oil prices to remain low through 2025, citing weak supply-demand fundamentals that could keep prices down without government action. Morgan Stanley is holding its Brent forecast steady at $67.50/bbl for 2H’25. Iraq’s Oil Ministry rejected the Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan’s (APIKUR) claims of stalled talks, calling them misleading. It reaffirmed its commitment to the federal budget law and urged the immediate resumption of oil exports via the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline. At the time of writing, the Jun/Jul’25 and Jun/Dec’25 Brent futures spreads stood at $0.60/bbl and $1.89/bbl, respectively.
