The Sep’25 Brent Futures contract initially rallied to $69.02 at 13:34 BST before falling to $68.21 at 15:08. Prices have since slightly recovered to $68.33/bbl at 17:35 BST (time of writing). In the news, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with his Chinese counterpart in Stockholm next week to discuss a likely extension of 12 August deadline for a trade deal. Bessent described the current US-China trade relationship as “constructive,” highlighting recent progress including China ending its rare earth export ban and the US resuming key tech exports. Without a deal or extension, tariffs could revert to 145% on US goods and 125% on Chinese goods. In other news, Halliburton reported that declining crude production in Mexico is increasing pressure to revive business, but ongoing payment delays from state-run Pemex continue to hinder operations. Pemex’s crude and condensate output dropped 8.4% in May to 1.64 mb/d. Due to unresolved payment issues many oilfield service companies have scaled back activity. Halliburton expects its international revenue for 2025 to decline by mid-single digits, largely due to reduced activity in Mexico and Saudi Arabia. Russia’s oil and gas revenue is projected to drop by about 37% y/y in July 2025 to 680 Bn roubles, due to lower oil prices and a stronger rouble, according to Reuters estimates. The finance ministry has already cut its full-year revenue forecast from 10.94 trillion to 8.32 trillion roubles, down from 11.13 trillion in 2024. Official figures are expected on 5 August. Finally, the front-month Sep/Oct and 6-month Sep/Mar’26 spreads are at $0.79/bbl and $2.07/bbl respectively.
