The Mar’25 Brent futures flat price clawed higher on Tuesday afternoon, rising from $78.50/bbl at 14:00 GMT to nearly $79.60/bbl by 16:45 GMT before falling to $79.16/bbl by 17:40 GMT (time of writing). In the news, a rare winter storm across the U.S. South has disrupted natural gas and oil production, strained the Texas power grid, and halted LNG exports. Despite the Houthis’ announced pullback, insurers remain reluctant to cover Red Sea transit due to ongoing security risks, delaying a full return to the Suez Canal route and keeping freight rates elevated, though a gradual decline is expected. Trump’s tariff threats on Canadian oil have widened the gap between U.S. and Canadian energy stocks, with Toronto-listed names underperforming as investors shy away from policy uncertainty, while analysts warn of further downside if tariffs are implemented. Serica Energy remains committed to investing in the UK North Sea despite high taxes, seeing opportunities in the market, but emphasises the need for a more sustainable tax regime to support long-term oil and gas development. U.S. energy mergers may slow in 2025 as deal sizes shrink due to fewer available targets and regulatory delays, but smaller and mid-cap producers are still expected to pursue M&A for scale, with cost-saving measures like longer laterals helping to improve drilling economics. Finally, the front (Mar/Apr) and 6-month (Mar/Sep) Brent futures spreads are at $0.81/bbl and $4.05/bbl respectively.
