The May’25 Brent futures contract is on track for a daily gain, although it failed to maintain the strength from this morning, dropping from $70.20/bbl at 12.00 GMT to $69.60/bbl at 17.30 GMT (time of writing). The EIA now forecasts OPEC crude production to decline by 0.05 mb/d in 2025, a revision from its previous estimate of a 0.18 mb/d increase. For 2026, production is expected to rise by 0.26 mb/d, down from the earlier projection of 0.36 mb/d. These adjustments are attributed to sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. Additionally, OPEC+ crude production increased by 140 kb/d m/m in Feb, reaching 40.99 mb/d. President Donald Trump announced plans to raise tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium to 50%, fueling a Wall Street sell-off. Ontario Premier Doug Ford pushed back, stating on X that Canada “will not back down until President Trump’s tariffs are gone for good.”. Petrobras is eyeing opportunities in Argentina, including Vaca Muerta gas and oil projects while advancing its Colombian offshore gas development. The firm plans to supply 13 million cubic meters of gas daily to Colombia and seeks overseas reserves amid drilling restrictions in Brazil. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.49/bbl and $2.38/bbl.
