The May’25 Brent futures contract traded sideways this afternoon, increasing from $73.60/bbl at 1230 GMT up to $74.15/bbl at 1550 GMT, before declining to $73.65/bbl at 1735 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have fluctuated as Russia and Ukraine have now accused one another of flouting the ceasefire on energy strikes reached on 25 Mar. According to Reuters, President Zelenskiy was told by the US the deals were effective as soon as they were announced. At the same time, the Kremlin stated the Black Sea agreement would not enter force until international restrictions were lifted on a sanctioned Russian state bank. In other news, crude oil exports by Mexican state-owned Pemex grew by 33% in February m/m, reaching just under 710kb/d. About 60% of these exports, or 428kb/d went to the US, with the Maya heavy crude oil blend accounting for most of this. Pemex’s crude oil exports are down 25% y/y compared to February 2024 but have recovered from January, when exports plummeted 44% y/y to the lowest level in decades. Meanwhile, BP has received approval from the Iraqi government for the redevelopment of the Kirkuk oil fields, with an initial plan to produce 3 billion barrels of oil equivalent, as per Reuters. Finally, EIA stats for the week ending 21 Mar saw a draw of 3.3mb in US crude oil inventories, above expectations of around a 1.6mb draw. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.69/bbl and $3.27/bbl.
