This week reminded the market that we do not know what will happen next. The whipsaw of news seemed to pull the rug from under you as soon as you believed it. So what can we say really happened this week? The tariffs that have consumed the oil-sphere since they were first threatened got put into effect, and the market scrambled to work out their impact. Deals were very quickly made between the frenemies in the Americas, and the tariffs were delayed. Delays, not cancellations, mean we can expect this to flare up again in 3 weeks with a review of border control and drug trafficking. China was less compliant and returned in kind with 10% tariffs on crude and 15% on coal and LNG. Trump has reasserted maximum pressure on Iran, kind of. Instead of an executive order, he issued a memorandum which seemed quite reserved with phrases like ‘full legal extent’, which seemed relievingly tepid. OPEC+’s JMMC meeting on Monday emphasised compliance and failed to mention President Trump’s demands for them to “bring down the price of oil”, although we are comfortably breaking the 50-day moving average this afternoon in prompt Brent. Thanks Trump 🙂
