Summary
RBOB futures strengthened this fortnight on stronger crude. Jun’25 RBOB rose from $2.17/gal on 17 Mar to $2.28/gal at the time of writing on 31 Mar, breaking above the 50-day moving average. The Jun’25 RBBR rallied from $20.00/bbl on 25 Mar to over $21.35/bbl on 28 Mar, although it failed to maintain this on 31 Mar with strong Brent. CFTC COT data for the week ending 25 Mar showed money managers were bullish in the week ending 25 Mar. We saw these speculative players add 4.5mb (6.91%) to their long positions, although they made little change to their overall short positions, reducing them by just 185kb (0.51%), following the 32% w/w closure in the week prior. This change took overall money-managed net positioning to over 33mb. This is the highest level in fund net positioning since the week to 18 Feb.
