Summary
The front-month RBOB futures contract jumped from a close of under $2/gal on 28 Feb to $2.23/gal on 3 Mar due to the Feb’25 RBOB expiry on 28 Feb. The contract has since weakened to $2.17/gal at the time of writing. The specific Apr’25 RBOB flat price contract has been weakening since the second half of February, declining from an intraday high of $2.38/gal on 12 Feb to $2.17/gal at the time of writing. CFTC COT data for the week ending 25 Feb recorded a 2.3mb decline in open interest (OI) in the RBOB futures, with the de-risking likely emerging from rising uncertainty surrounding gasoline sentiment in the US. Donald Trump introduced a 25% tariff on Mexican exports into the US and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy exports into the US. Such a tariff could support US gasoline prices due to the dependence of the PADD-2 refinery on sour crude oil.
