Summary
The tide finally turned on US LPG as the weather cleared on the Eastern and Southern coasts. The Mar’25 Mont Belvieu TET propane, C3 LST, weakened from 91.55c/gal on the evening of 17 Jan to 84.375c/gal by the afternoon of 29 Jan. We recommend monitoring the 30-day moving average, at 82.75c/gal for short-term support. The Mar/Apr’25 C3 LST time spread softened from 5.75c/gal on 17 Jan to 3.875c/gal at the time of writing on 29 Jan. Onyx’s counterparty data highlights that trade houses were seen selling 565kb of the Mar/Apr’25 spread this fortnight, while trade houses, end users and banks sold 755kb of the Feb/Mar’25 LST spread. Fundamentally, the EIA announced a 7.886mb decline in US propane inventories in the week ending 24 Jan against an expected decline of 4.76mb. Still, the US remains amply supplied, with PADD-3 stocks still 12% above their 5-year average.
