News

This morning, the Nov’25 Brent Futures contract softened from around $67.50/bbl, overnight, to reach $67.00/bbl at 10.08 BST, inching back up to $67.30/bbl at the time of writing at 11.24 BST. Progress on the India-US trade deal front largely hinges on Washington rolling back the Russian oil-linked additional 25% duty on India, and no breakthrough is likely without it, India-based trade-focused think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has argued, as talks between the countries start today. The Ksi Lisims LNG project has won provincial and federal environmental approval, with strict conditions to protect ecosystems. Backed by the Nisga’a Nation, it plans a floating facility producing 12 million mt of LNG annually, focusing on Asian markets. If built, it would be Canada’s second LNG project in a decade, alongside the Canada LNG expansion at Kitimat, expected to double capacity to 14 million mt and generate $44 Bn. South Africa has granted BP, Vitol, and other oil traders 25-year leases at Durban’s Island View Precinct, ending years of disputes over short-term deals that threatened investment and fuel security. The hub handles about 70% of the country’s fuel imports. Questions remain over the future of the Sapref refinery under the Central Energy Fund. Dragon Oil, owned by Enoc, has signed a $30 million agreement with Egypt’s EGPC to boost exploration and production in the Gulf of Suez, including drilling at least two new wells in East El-Hamd. It follows Egypt’s recent signing of three oil and gas exploration deals worth over $121 million with Parenco, Dragon Oil, and Apache across the Western Desert, Gulf of Suez, and North Sinai. Finally, the front-month Nov/Dec and the 6-month Nov/May spreads are at $0.36/bbl and $1.16/bbl, respectively.

This morning, the Nov’25 Brent Futures contract has a Doji daily candle reflecting little net change. The contract reached $67.53/bbl at 07.10 BST but softened to $67.14/bbl at 11.37 BST (time of writing). US and Chinese officials, led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng, are set to hold their second day of trade talks today. The talks come amid tensions over China’s purchase of Russian oil, with Donald Trump posting on Truth over the weekend that “China has a strong control, and even grip, over Russia, and these powerful Tariffs will break that grip”. Beijing pushed back, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi warning sanctions would “complicate” the Ukraine conflict. The US president, in this post on his Truth Social platform on Saturday, said NATO’s commitment to winning the war “has been far less than 100%” and the purchase of Russian oil by some members is “shocking”. China’s Commerce Ministry launched two new probes into the US chip sector after Washington blacklisted 23 more Chinese entities. Ukraine said it struck the Kirishi oil refinery in Russia’s Leningrad region, sparking explosions and a fire at one of the country’s largest refineries that supplies fuel to the Russian army. The Surgutneftegas-operated plant, producing about 355,000 barrels per day, is among Russia’s top three refineries and was hit amid a wave of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Nayara Energy, majority-owned by Rosneft, has sought Indian government help to secure catalysts and heavy equipment for a February shutdown of its 400 kb/d Vadinar refinery, as EU sanctions restrict access to US and European suppliers. Now reliant solely on Russian crude, the refiner faces difficulties sourcing key items like compressors, pumps, and catalysts, though it may turn to Russian, Chinese, or domestic alternatives. Finally, the front-month Nov/Dec and the 6-month Nov/May spreads are at $0.41/bbl and $1.16/bbl, respectively.

The Nov’25 Brent Futures contract rallied all morning to $66.89/bbl at 10:38 BST before softening a touch to $66.76/bbl at 11:15 BST (time of writing). In the news, Japan will lower its price cap on Russian crude oil from $60/bbl to $47.60/bbl starting 12 September, aligning with the EU’s recent move to tighten sanctions over Russia’s war in Ukraine. While the cap is symbolic of international pressure, it won’t affect Japan’s oil imports, as purchases from the Sakhalin-2 project will continue. Russia supplied just 0.1% of Japan’s crude imports this year, though Sakhalin LNG remains crucial to Japan’s energy security. In other news, the truce between NUPENG and Dangote Refinery has broken down, risking a nationwide fuel crisis. NUPENG accuses Dangote of violating a signed agreement allowing tanker drivers to unionize, claiming drivers were intimidated and union symbols removed. Dangote denies the claims, insisting union membership is voluntary and its CNG truck initiative creates over 60,000 quality jobs. The government has not yet intervened, despite mediating the original deal. NUPENG warns it may resume strikes from 15 September, threatening fuel distribution. US President Trump has called on G7 nations to impose steep tariffs on China and India for continuing energy trade with Russia, arguing it would accelerate an end to the Ukraine war, according to the Financial Times. G7 finance ministers are expected to discuss the proposal in a video call today. Trump reportedly urged the EU to impose 100% tariffs on both countries, stating the US would increase pressure on Russia if Europe did the same. Finaly, the front-month Nov/Dec and the 6-month Nov/May spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.04/bbl respectively.