Due to unforeseen circumstances, the Technical Analysis Report due for publication on the 15 July 2025 has been delayed by a day. We apologise for any inconvenience.
The quest for direction in the oil markets has taken players to more niche markets with trading activity in refined fuels surging to the highest observed in multiple years.
The North Sea crude market was a major winner since the Chinese New Year, riding a wave of robust strength with the front supported from continued tightness.
In the last two weeks, EBOB crack prices initially strengthened to highs of around $18.60/bbl on Feb 13, before retracing $16.55/bbl on Feb 16. During the last fortnight, there was growing sell-side interest, as refiners and trade houses were seen
Prompt Brent futures flat price has seen a mixed afternoon. Prices were initially supported up to $83.48/bbl at 14:30 GMT before selling interest pressured prices lower to $82.10/bbl at 16:20 GMT.
Onyx Alpha will publish speculative and hedging trades every Tuesday based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods based on Onyx’s COT and Flux Financials data.
The Apr Brent futures contract continued to be supported overnight with prices holding above the $83/bbl mark initially before dipping below it and trading at $82.77/bbl at 10:00 GMT (time of writing). Apr WTI saw a similar softening as prices
In Brent, Apr prices have continued to strengthen, hovering around the $82.50/bbl mark. Nonetheless, from a technical perspective, prices remain firmly within neutral territory on both a Bollinger band and RSI basis.
Speculators for both Brent and WTI portrayed a more bullish outlook as managed by money positions witnessed an increase in longs coupled with a liquidation of shorts for both crude benchmarks
Oil prices were seen hovering around the $82.75/bbl handles on Monday morning after last week witnessed the Brent futures for the Apr contract rise by over 1%, following a 6% gain in the previous week.
Crude flat price has been trading a touch below $83/bbl levels on Monday morning, trading at $82.68/bbl at 10:30 GMT. Price action has been well supported amid persistent geopolitical tensions surrounding the Red Sea.
The April Brent futures is trading at $83.21/bbl at the time of writing, 16:45 GMT. The contract traded down to a low of $81.97/bbl at noon and subsequently experienced a steady rise throughout the afternoon to settle around the $83/bbl
This fortnight in LNG, we have seen a poor heating demand in Europe amid stocks still at 66% of full capacity compared to last fortnight’s levels of 70%, on Jan 31. Read more in our LNG Report.
The Apr Brent futures contract eased off from yesterday’s strength and stood at $82.00/bbl as of 10:30 GMT.
Despite the geopolitical risk premia buoying up the naphtha E/W, we recommended shorting the Mar E/W in our Feb 13 naphtha report. Find out more about the logic behind this trade in our new case study.
Prompt Brent futures flat price has seen a much stronger afternoon. Prices were supported from $80.74/bbl at 11:40 GMT to $83.14/bbl at 16:45 GMT.
