Please note that there will be a hiatus in the publication of reports between 22nd December and 2nd January due to the Christmas period. Reports will be published as normal from Monday 5th January 2026.
The re-election of President Trump has brought havoc and hysteria to oil market sentiment. Trump’s predictably unpredictable rhetoric and actions have created significant uncertainty and volatility for financial markets, which has reinforced large intraday swings in Brent futures and spreads.
The prompt April Brent Futures contract has seen a volatile afternoon, initially trading down from $75.09/bbl at noon to a low of $74.17 at 14:20 GMT before rallying to $76.65/bbl at 15:35 GMT and retracing some of its gains to
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in gasoline and NGL swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract softened overnight, from $75.55/bbl at 0400 GMT to $75.05/bbl at 10:33 GMT (time of writing). China has retaliated against Trump’s tariffs with a 15% levy on US liquefied natural gas and coal, a 10% tariff
Oil prices rallied into President-elect Trump’s inauguration only to retreat thereafter. Brent front-month futures peaked at $82.03/bbl on 15 January, declining to below $75/bbl at the time of writing. When examining the positioning data for risk takers, we witnessed consecutive
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract witnessed a weaker afternoon, softening from $77.20/bbl at 14:10 GMT to $75.15/bbl at 15:25 GMT. The contract found support at this level and climbed to $75.75/bbl at 17:20 GMT (the time of writing).
The week to 03 Feb saw markets rebalance ahead of the 01 Feb deadline for President Trump’s introduction of new tariffs on Mexican and Canadian energy and a further 10% on Chinese goods. There was little clarity ahead of the
The week ending 28 Jan was characterised by de-risking in the benchmark Brent and WTI futures, more significantly in the latter. Combined open interest in the crude futures declined by 77.89mb (-1.76%) this week.
The talk of the market has been Trump’s tariff announcement on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. This week, we expect price action in Brent crude futures to remain rangebound between $75 and $79/bbl in the Apr’25 contract as the
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract found support at just shy of $76.00/bbl at around 0300 GMT and strengthened through the morning to $76.55/bbl at 10:35 GMT (time of writing). President Trump issued executive orders on 1 Feb, which will take
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract fell to around $75.25/bbl at 1500 GMT before strengthening to $75.95/bbl at 1700 GMT (time of writing). The PCE price index rose 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually, keeping inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target,
In High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO), the 3.5% barge complex weakened into the new year. The Feb/Mar’25 3.5% barge spread dropped from $4/mt on 27 Dec to a contango of -$1/mt on 14 Jan. While this contango was short-lived, the
Risk off, worry on On Monday, we forecast March Brent futures to end the week between $75-79.00/bbl. At 1600 GMT, March Brent is within this range at $76.75/bbl as it expires today, and April becomes the prompt at $75.75/bbl. This
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract climbed to $76.40/bbl at 03:00 GMT but softened into the day, hitting $75.50/bbl at 10:15 GMT. The contract finally saw support at this level and rose to $75.70/bbl at 10:38 GMT (time of writing)
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract climbed from $75.40/bbl at 1400 GMT to see resistance around $76.50/bbl at 1540 GMT and is supported at just shy of $76.00/bbl at 1738 GMT (time of writing). Petrobras boosted reserves to 11.4 billion barrels
